Ian Foster's 'simple' theory for the All Blacks' World Cup squad
All Blacks head coach Ian Foster has offered his thoughts on Rugby World Cup squads which are set to expand to 33 from 31 players for this year’s tournament in France.
The expanded squad size increases the odds of a bolter selection and also reduces the chances of a big name omission.
The All Blacks from 2011 and 2015 had notable omissions from both squads, with Ben Smith, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Liam Messam, and Wyatt Crockett all missing out on the first of back-to-back World Cup wins.
Key contributors from the 2011 World Cup-winning team Aaron Cruden, Cory Jane and Israel Dagg all missed the cut in 2015, along with Lima Sopoaga and Charles Piutau.
In 2019 Owen Franks was a big omission, along with barnstorming midfielder Ngani Laumape.
Foster shared some logic as to how the All Blacks may use the 33 selections later this year.
“I forget what 2015 was, I know 2019 was one more and know we’ve got one more again [in 2023],” Foster told Jason Pine’s Newstalk ZB show.
“If you look at it with simplicity, you’ve got two lots of 15, two teams, and then three extras.
“Potentially a third hooker, a third No 9, and a third 10, some of your specialist positions.
“That’s the simplicity of the logic.”
In 2019 with just 31 selections the All Blacks took three hookers, three halfbacks and two first fives to Japan for the World Cup, skimping on other positions like blindside flanker where they did not take a specialist.
This time around they will have the luxury of not having to cut back in other position groups to bolster the spine positions.
Hurricanes halfback Cam Roigard has been a popular selection as a World Cup bolter candidate with regular starter and All Black TJ Perenara recovering from his Achilles injury.
The other halfback stocks include Aaron Smith, Folau Fakatava, Finlay Christie and Brad Weber for a total of six options including Roigard for Foster’s staff.
At hooker the All Blacks have Samisoni Taukei’aho, Codie Taylor and Dane Coles while the in-form Asafo Aumua is potentially in line to earn an All Black recall.
The first five positional group has Beauden Barrett and Richie Mo’unga, assumed to be guaranteed picks if healthy, with Damian McKenzie and Stephen Perofeta fighting it out to be the third option, although whoever misses out might also be selected as fullback cover.
Foster highlighted the versatility in the backline as a key strength which will enable the selectors to maneuverer the squad in other areas.
“But we’ve got a lot of versatility in our group, particularly the backs,” he explained.
“And quite a bit of versatility in our locks and loose forward types.
“We’re having some good debates about the make-up of our group already.
“We’ve got the Rugby Championship where we will be picking 36 to keep the door open for people as well.
“The lion’s share of our group is pretty clear but we want to keep an open mind right to the very end.
“We’ve got an opportunity in the Rugby Championship and we’ve also got a New Zealand A team playing two games against Japan to trial a couple things.”
On whether there would be a World Cup bolter such as Cam Roigard or Shaun Stevenson, who have been the in-form players in Super Rugby Pacific, Foster remained coy on the subject.
“I don’t know, it wouldn’t be a bolter if I told you, would it?” he joked.
“It is one of those questions I’m not allowed to answer, the way you’ve framed it. Who knows?
“If you look at the bigger picture, we’ve already scratched… you look at Sevu Reece’s injury, George Bower’s injury.
“Part of this year is looking at all the contingency plans, making sure we’ve got our depth options very clear.
“Due to the size of squads we’ve had in recent years, with travel and Covid, the odds of having someone who hasn’t played for us already aren’t that great, but you never know.
“Let’s just keep excited about it a little bit longer.”
Comments on RugbyPass
It’s impressive that we can see huge stadiums with attendance in the 40 000 to 50 000 region. It shows how popular this competition is becoming. What is even more impressive is the massive growth in broadcast viewership. The URC is one of the two best leagues in the World, the other being the Top14.
6 Go to commentsChristie is not Sottish, like the majority of the Scotland team.
2 Go to commentsHold the phone, decline over-rated. Is it a one game, dead cat bounce or the real thing? Has the Penney dropped? Stay tuned.
44 Go to commentsTotally deserved win for the Crusaders Far smarter than the Chiefs who seem to be avoiding the basics when it matters Hotham showed them what was missing and Hannah seems a real find - a tad light but that can be fixed over time
8 Go to commentsGreat insight into the performance culture with Sarries and I predict Christie will be a fixture in the Scotland team now for some time to come. However, he is slightly missing his own point around Scotland “being soft” when he cites physicality examples in defence of that slight. The issue is much closer to the example he referenced around feeling off before a game but being told “it doesn’t matter, you can still play well” by Farrell. Until Scotland can get their psyche in that square, they will carry on folding under extreme pressure…
2 Go to comments> We are having to adapt, evolve and innovate more than when we were in Super Rugby where there was only really one style that everybody had to play to gain the most success. Have = able to? Interesting what that one style might be? I thought SA sides still had bad tours now, or at least bad schedule, months away? Those extra few hours flights have to be a killer though, no surprise to see their sides doing so badly at the start of the season each year. I wouldn’t enjoy that unfairness as a supporter.
6 Go to commentsThe problem for NZ, and Aus, is they ripped up the SR model and lost a massive chunk of revenue that hasn’t been replaced. Don’t forget SA clubs went North because they were left with no choice, Argy unceremoniously binned and Japan cast adrift. Now SR wasn’t perfect, far from it, but they’ve jumped into something without an effective plan, so far, to replace what they’ve lost. The biggest revenue potential now lies in Japan but it won’t be easy or quick to unlock, they are incredibly insular in culture as a nation. In the meantime, there is a serious time bomb sitting under SH rugby and if it happens then the current financial challenges will look like a picnic. IF the Boks follow their provincial teams and head north then it’s revenue meltdown. Not guaranteed to happen but the status quo is a very odd hybrid, with the Boks pointing one way and the clubs pointing the other way. And for as long as that remains then the threat is real.
44 Go to commentsI think Etene has had some good tuition, likely while at the Warriors to be a professional that helped his rugby jump, but he was certainly thrown in the deep end way too early. Should have arguably 20 less SR caps, and therefor a way better record that he does at his age, but his development would have been fast tracked by the need to satiate his signing away from league. Again, credit to him and others that he has done it so well. Easy to fall over under that pressure in the big leagues like that but he kept at it when I myself wasn’t sure he was good enough.
1 Go to commentsAwesome story. I wonder what a bigger American (SA) scene might have mean for Brex.
1 Go to comments“Johnny McNicholl and the Crusaders” save a Penney. Who has been in camp this week and showed them how to play?
8 Go to commentsSo, reports of the Crusaders’ demise / terminal decline are perhaps just - slightly - premature/exaggerated…? 🤔 Will we see a deep-dive into that by the estimable Rugbypass scribes, and maybe one or two mea culpas? Thought not.
8 Go to comments1. The Chiefs are rudderless without DMac, which enhances his AB chances 2. Chiefs pack are powderpuffs. The hard men arent there anymore 3. They had their golden title chance last yr and wont threaten this yr. Gone in second round of playoffs.
8 Go to commentsHonestly, why did you have to publish such a foolish article the day they play us? 😂
44 Go to comments> They are not standalone entities. They are linked to an amateur association which holds the FFR licence that allows the professional side to compete in the league. That’s a great rule. This looks like the chicken or egg professional scenario. How long is it going to be before the club can break even (if that is even a thing in French rugby)? If the locals aren’t into well it would be good to se them drop to amateur level (is it that far?). Hope they can reset from this level and be more practical, there will be a time when they can rebuild (if France has there setup right).
1 Go to commentsWhat about changing the ball? To something heavier and more pointed that bounces unpredictably. Not this almost round football used these days.
35 Go to commentsThis is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?
35 Go to commentsWow, didn’t realise there was such apathy to URC in SA, or by Champions Cup teams. Just read Nick’s article on Crusaders, are Sharks a similar circumstance? I think SA rugby has been far more balanced than NZs, no?
4 Go to commentsBut here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.
44 Go to commentsIt could be coincidental or prescient that the All Blacks most dominant period under Steve Hansen was when the Crusaders had their least successful period under Todd Blackadder and then the positions reversed when Razor took over the Crusaders.
44 Go to commentsDefinitely sound read everybodyexpects immediate results these days, I don't think any team would travel well at all having lost three of the most important game changers in the game,compiled with the massive injury list they are now carrying, good to see a different more in depth perspective of a coaches history.
3 Go to comments