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Eddie's right, England are underdogs - Andy Goode

By Andy Goode
Scotland have to be known as a side that can win the odd big game (Pic /PA Images)

It’s not the first time Eddie Jones has tried to tell us all that Scotland are favourites to win the Calcutta Cup but this time he’s right.

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This is the most inexperienced team Jones has ever selected in the Six Nations, Scotland are far more settled in terms of their selection and they have had their hands on the cup in three of the last four years.

His quotes in the media are mind games, of course, and he’s talked up the expectation on Scotland in these clashes as far back as 2016 when they probably weren’t expected to win as he obviously think the favourites tag weighs heavy on them. This time he’s right, though.

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They may not quite but “red-hot favourites” as Jones suggests but, whether you look at the number of caps in the pack or the experience in the back three or the number of British & Irish Lions in the starting XV, Scotland do have the slight edge.

England Isiekwe recall Saracens
(Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

Clearly, England have had to adjust with injuries to several frontline players but Jones should be credited again for changing his ways and paying far more attention to Premiership form than he used to.

Lewis Ludlam and Nick Isiekwe are prime examples of that. Both have been outstanding for their clubs but neither have featured prominently for England for some time, the latter last seen in an international jersey being taken off before half-time in the first Test of the summer tour to South Africa back in 2018.

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It’s a huge day for them and I think the lack of experience in the back three, as well as in the back row, has influenced Jones’ selection in the midfield.

Mark Atkinson seemed like the obvious choice to many to be selected at centre because he’s most similar to Andre Esterhuizen, who is such a big help to Marcus Smith at Harlequins, but he has just one international cap to his name as a replacement against Tonga.

Elliot Daly has started just five games for Saracens this season and only one of those at centre, so he hasn’t been picked on form, but I think he’s got the nod because of the experience he brings when that is lacking in those around him.

Elliot Daly
Elliot Daly /PA
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Daly is one of five players in the starting XV with more caps to his name than captain Tom Curry but the Sale man is England’s leader because of all the unseen things that we aren’t privy to looking on from outside camp.

Who knows whether he will be skipper for England long-term but it’s a huge honour to have bestowed on him at the age of just 23 and there’s no higher praise than to have your coach liken you to Richie McCaw.

There are different types of captain and it remains to be seen how Curry handles it but he hasn’t been given it as a gimmick and I fully expect to see him leading England more in the future.

You don’t have to shout the odds all the time as a captain, you can lead by example and it’s certainly the case that some captains talk too much, but you do have to command respect when you do speak up and I’m sure Curry will do that.

Simmonds Lions Exeter
(Photo by Getty Images)

He is by far the most experienced man in England’s back row and the selection of Sam Simmonds ahead of Alex Dombrandt is an interesting one. I thought they might both start alongside one another but it’s great to see the Exeter number eight given his chance.

It seemed like Dombrandt might have the edge because of his relationship with Smith but Simmonds has the first shot in this Six Nations and I’m sure we’ll see both starting throughout the tournament.

The back row battle is clearly going to be key and it was interesting to see World Rugby issuing a clarification about when the ball is out the back of a ruck at Eddie Jones’ request.

More mind games and an attempt to get inside the head of referee Ben O’Keeffe it might be but there’s every chance he’s also spotted something in Scotland’s game and I think the selection of Ludlam alongside Curry is to combat the threat of Hamish Watson and Jamie Ritchie at the breakdown.

Marcus Smith
Marcus Smith (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)

All those decisions in the forwards and the outside backs are fascinating but the battle that everyone wants to see is Marcus Smith against Finn Russell at fly half.

I’m looking forward to it as much as anyone else but I think the conditions, with a fair bit of rain and wind forecast, will mean it might not be the mercurial ability of either that wins the game and it might be the one who manages the game best who comes out on top.

Make no bones about it though, Scotland are favourites, even if “red-hot” might be over-egging the pudding a bit, and it’ll be interesting to see how they react after having success going in as underdogs in recent years.

They do have the edge in a few areas but I think Jones might just have got his pre-match rhetoric right on this occasion and I’m picking England to relish the slight underdog tag and win by four points at Murrayfield.

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J
Jon 6 hours ago
Jake White: Are modern rugby players actually better?

This is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?

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j
john 9 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

But here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.

36 Go to comments
A
Adrian 11 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

Thanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause

36 Go to comments
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