Don’t rule out shock away wins in Premiership semi-finals – Andy Goode
There may only have been six away wins in a couple of decades’ worth of Premiership semi-finals but I just have a feeling we could be in for a surprise East Midlands derby in the final.
The home side wins a massive 84% of the time at this stage of the competition and there have never been two away semi-final victories in the same campaign but it’s been a crazy season in English club rugby and I can see history being made.
The champions winning away at Sale might not be a huge shock, especially after they won six league games on the bounce before defeat to Quins last week, and I just think they might have the edge in the backs with a potentially very even forward battle in prospect.
If Leicester are to make it to the final, they’ll have to keep the Curry twins as quiet as possible and they’ve been on another level to most other back rowers in the league this season but the packs look well-matched on paper.
I think Tigers will target Rob du Preez at outside centre though. He’s been playing fly half for most of the season and they’ll want to send multiple runners down his channel and force him to make big decisions in the most difficult position on the field to defend.
It’s going to be a cagey, tactical contest between two teams that play quite a similar brand of rugby and they’re the two sides that kick the most in the Premiership so the aerial battle is going to be key.
If I was Richard Wigglesworth, I’d have picked Mike Brown at full back every day of the week for that very reason but he does have Freddie Steward and Anthony Watson in the back three, who are both excellent under the high ball.
Harry Potter is probably the player that George Ford will look to target with his spiral bombs but I’m sure Leicester will be peppering an inexperienced Sharks back three with kicks as well and Arron Reed, who has been electric with ball in hand, could be in for a long day as he’s giving up quite a bit in height compared to the Tigers back three.
Interestingly, Chris Ashton hasn’t been selected despite all the efforts the club went to in order to clear his name this week but I don’t think that will have been a distraction and he didn’t feature in last year’s semi-final before returning in the final so he might yet get one more outing.
In the other semi-final, even Northampton appear to be talking down their chances by saying they have nothing to lose, which I don’t agree with, but Saracens aren’t the force they once were and Saints are lethal in attack.
The return of Courtney Lawes, along with the likes of Dave Ribbans, Lewis Ludlam and Juarno Augustus, should improve Saints’ physicality and that was definitely an area of weakness earlier in the campaign.
Only Newcastle have leaked more tries than Northampton in the Premiership and, despite being the top try scorers, they’ve still conceded more than they’ve scored so they’re going to have to defend better than they have done this season in the big moments.
Plus, they’ve conceded a massive 33 tries in the final 20 minutes of games, which suggests they run out of gas as a result of their style of going hell for leather in attack right from the off and getting through a lot of work in defence too so they’ll have to manage the game as well as playing to their strengths.
I’m not sure it’s in their DNA to pace themselves but there’s no doubt they’re going to create opportunities and if they can take a decent proportion of them and leave it all out there, they’ll really put the tabletoppers under pressure.
Saracens have become more expansive themselves this season after feeling they didn’t give it a proper go in last year’s final but there’s still a question mark over them in the big games after defeats to Toulon and La Rochelle in knockout ties recently too.
Most people will be expecting their experience and star names to give them the edge but Billy Vunipola is a big loss in these knockout occasions and they have lost three of their last four games after securing qualification for the play-offs early.
To pick both away teams to win when there have only been six away wins in 20 years is a big call but, as well as Sale have done to reconnect with their fans and as much as home comforts do matter, it isn’t as if either stadium is intimidating.
Leicester have the nous to come away with the spoils in the North West and if Northampton can hit the front and just manage the big moments well, while trusting the phenomenal attacking style that has got them to this stage, I can see them coming out on top at the StoneX.
You’d like to think Saints will have learned lessons from last year’s semi-final when they had more than enough chances to put Tigers away but didn’t and it’s almost 10 years to the day since they stunned Saracens in North London after the teams finished in the same positions in the table as they have done this season.
Northampton went on to lose to their bitter East Midlands rivals Leicester in the final at Twickenham a fortnight later. You never know, lightning might just strike twice a decade apart.
Comments on RugbyPass
Why cant I watch Rugby games please?
1 Go to commentsBeautiful shot from Finau, end of story. Gutted for Shaun Stevenson though.
4 Go to commentsThe Chiefs definitely didn’t win ugly. They had the superior scrum, a dominant lineout, and their defence was excellent once the Waratahs scored their two tries (thanks to some lucky refereeing calls mind you). They put pressure on the Waratahs lineout throughout the game, and the mind boggles as to why the referee did not award a yellow card or a penalty try against the Waratahs for repeated scrum infringements on their own try line before Narawa’s first try. And the Chiefs were slick with their passing and running angles on attack. It was a dominant performance all round, even with many questionable refereeing decisions.
1 Go to commentsWasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
4 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
4 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
3 Go to comments🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
30 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
4 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusaders , you can keep going.
3 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
30 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
30 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
30 Go to comments