Predicted All Blacks' 23 to face the Springboks in the first Test

The All Blacks will name their team to face the Springboks on Thursday, with a number of players uncertain after injuries across the first three warm-up games.

Prop Ollie Norris is the latest to be sent home after succumbing to an injury, while Cortez Ratima joins the uncertain list with a knee complaint.

Centre Billy Proctor, winger Caleb Clarke, hooker George Bell are all ruled out of further participation and have been sent home.

In doubt includes Will Jordan (back complaint), Cam Roigard (hamstring), Damian McKenzie (ankle), and Ratima, with McKenzie the most worrying of the injuries according to head coach Dave Rennie.

Here is a predicted All Blacks’ gameday 23 assuming that McKenzie is unavailable.

15. Beauden Barrett

The 144-Test veteran gets the nod at fullback with McKenzie ruled out. Of the available options, moving Will Jordan, Jordie Barrett or Ruben Love to fullback, this has the least disruption.

Under fire for patchy form in the warm-up games at No.10, moving to fullback could be the best fit for Barrett. He played at fullback in both Tests in South Africa in 2024, setting up two tries for Caleb Clarke at Ellis Park.

His best showing so far in South Africa came against the Bulls, while not perfect with a handful of wayward passes, it was an improved showing.

With two outside back reserves in this line-up, the plan for this 23 is for Barrett to play 50 minutes before being subbed for Narawa, with Jordan moving to 15 for the final half hour.

14. Will Jordan

The record-breaking try scorer has not been seen yet due to a back complaint but hopefully he has been nursed to health in the background in time for the first Test.

After blitzing July with six tries in three matches, Jordan hasn’t missed a beat back on the right wing.

In 2022 he played against South Africa on the right wing at Ellis Park in one of his best performances, combining with Rieko Ioane on the right edge to execute a high risk game plan that worked perfectly. He’s very familiar with the venue for the first Test.

Jordan has been up-and-down against the Springboks over his career, with arguably his two worst Tests coming against South Africa, the Rugby World Cup final and last year’s Test in Wellington. His two most memorable are the 2022 Ellis Park Test and 2023 at Mt Smart.

Rennie has the plan to get the best of Jordan and hopefully he will replicate his best.

13. Quinn Tupaea

Tupaea has nailed down the centre role and would likely be pencilled in as the starter regardless of injury to Billy Proctor.

The 27-year-old is in the form of his career right now and has become a key weapon for the All Blacks. He’s a strong ball carrier on first phase and has shifty footwork that can beat defenders. He’ll be tested against the Boks against a strong defensive midfield that will include loose forwards on short lineouts, so he’ll need to balance pushing for gain line with getting to ground to recycle.

The All Blacks will hope he can produce the type of runs that saw him cut back through the defence at Eden Park to crash over and score what was the game-sealing try last year in Auckland.

12. Jordie Barrett

The main playmaker in the All Blacks backline, the younger Barrett will definitely start. He’s also in the form of his career and proving to be the best in the world right now in the 12 jersey.

Barrett’s range of skills are integral to the attack plans, which feature long balls, cross-field kicks, ball playing at the line and of course, hard straight running when required.

11. Josh Moorby

Moorby has quietly become the All Blacks’ best wing. While injury to Clarke has opened the door for Moorby, his performances have elevated his status to first choice starter.

His debut against Italy was an appetiser of what was to come. He sparked the All Blacks into life with multiple breaks down the left side after coming on to replace Leroy Carter. The next week against Ireland, he produced a similar showing at Eden Park which showed he is extremely capable at this level.

He’s incredibly difficult to tackle, showing underrated power through contact to shake off defenders. He’s got great footwork, he’s strong under the high ball from his time at fullback domestically, and he’s smart in defence.

He doesn’t make bad reads which the All Blacks will need against the likes of Kolbe and Ardense. They need a winger who is going to make spot tackles all day and shut down the threat. Moorby can do that.

Moorby is the best winger the All Blacks have and he must start.

10. Ruben Love

Love is the starting No.10 and we know that.

He got through the Sharks game unscathed and was excellent off the tee in wet conditions, landing seven from eight goals.

In this line-up Love is projected to play 80 minutes unless injury strikes, touch wood, which would see Barrett move into 10 to finish the game.

9. Cam Roigard

Roigard will start and you’d assume that we haven’t seen him so far to ensure that he is as healthy as possible for this Test.

This will be Roigard’s first action against South Africa since 2023 and the All Blacks need him to continue the form that has elevated him into the world’s best converstation.

Roigard needs a big series in South Africa.

8. Ardie Savea (c)

Arriving in South Africa a few days ago, Savea will likely start at No.8 as he has down so far under Dave Rennie.

The captain is hopefully refreshed and ready to go.

7. Luke Jacobson

A surprise pick at openside to start July, we know Jacobson is the number one option for Rennie and his selectors.

This is a huge series for Jacobson as he’s been picked based on the work rate around the breakdown and the All Blacks will need accuracy in the clean to preserve possession from what is a strong Boks team over the ball.

That places Jacobson in one of the most important roles in this series. He can’t get it wrong like that cleanout against van der Flier at Eden Park.

6. Tupou Vaa’i

Vaa’i shapes as the likely No.6 to combat a strong South African lineout.

While his best position is still lock, Vaa’i brings an extra jumping option to the All Blacks lineout schemes which they’ll need here.

As the extra lock, Vaa’i can move to the second row late in the game allowing for two loose forwards to be picked on the bench.

5. Patrick Tuipulotu

The All Blacks will need power to combat a large Springbok’ forward pack and Tuipulotu will bring that to the second row.

The veteran came off early against the Bulls and could play a similar role playing 50-55 minutes before a reshuffle with Vaa’i.

4. Sam Darry

Between Darry and Josh Lord, the Blues lock has been in better form. Although usually in the No.5 jersey, Darry brings more work rate and less errors than Lord.

Darry would be a better pick to start, but seeing Lord in the No.4 jersey wouldn’t be a surprise.

3. Tyrel Lomax

Lomax has battled injuries this season but the veteran tighthead has plenty of experience scrummaging against the Springboks.

Since assuming to the starting role over Angus Ta’avao on the South African tour that year, Lomax became the world’s best for a period of time.

Lomax in the starting side means Fletcher Newell returns to the bench.

2. Codie Taylor

The tour captain returned against the Bulls and bagged a double, powering over from close range twice.

He proved his fitness and is most likely to start.

1. Ethan de Groot

De Groot will start at loosehead. Brings physicality in defence, anchors a strong scrum and always steps up in the black jersey.

With De Groot, it doesn’t seem to matter what his Highlanders’ form is like when it comes to the All Blacks.

Reserves

16. Asafo Aumua – Between Taukei’aho and Aumua, the Hurricanes’ rake gets the nod. Both are capable but on form Aumua deserves his spot.

17. Xavier Numia – After his showing against the Bulls, Numia is ready to take the bench role.

18. Fletcher Newell – Experienced tighthead that can lead the bench unit at set piece time.

19. Anton Segner – The first of two loosies on the bench for impact. After Segner’s massive outing against the Bulls which included three turnovers, he’s won his selection. He can spell for Jacobson late in the game.

20. Peter Lakai – One player who has stood out in the warm-up games has been Lakai. He was the best performer against the Stormers, can cover anywhere in the back row and you know he’s going to make impact with ball-in-hand.

21. Kyle Preston – With Ratima in doubt, Preston gets the nod, who has been exceptional. He’s almost a professional closer having filled the bench role with the Crusaders, he knows what to do in the final stages.

22. Timoci Tavatavanawai – The X-factor pick who can cover midfield and wing. Super Rugby’s best fetcher from last year showed what he can do against the Sharks. Turnovers and bump offs, Tavatavanawai is an intriguing pick.

23. Emoni Narawa – Another X-factor player who can just make plays and someone who can make something happen when you need it.