Connacht or Lions face potential Champions Cup axe next year in EPCR twist

The race for next season’s Investec Champions Cup has taken another twist, with EPCR outlining the bizarre scenario that could yet see the Lions dumped out of Europe’s premier competition despite finishing seventh in the United Rugby Championship this season.

Under normal circumstances, the top eight sides in the URC standings qualify automatically for the following season’s Champions Cup. But this year’s permutations have become more complicated because Champions Cup or Challenge Cup title winners are also guaranteed qualification, even if they finish outside the automatic places.

That has put Ulster at the centre of the equation ahead of Friday night’s EPCR Challenge Cup final. Richie Murphy’s side finished ninth in the URC table, one place outside the Champions Cup spots, but victory in against Montpellier on Friday in the Challenge Cup final would secure qualification for next season’s top-tier competition.

If Ulster do beat Montpellier in Bilbao, their qualification would come from the URC’s allocation of eight places, meaning Connacht – who finished eighth – would drop into the Challenge Cup despite technically finishing inside the qualification spots.

However, as Connacht are still alive in the URC play-offs and face defending champions Glasgow Warriors in the quarter-finals, their destiny is still in their hands. Should Stuart Lancaster’s side go on to win the URC title, they would automatically qualify for the Champions Cup as league winners regardless of where they finished in the table.

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That would trigger another reshuffle, with Connacht reclaiming a Champions Cup berth and the Lions, despite finishing seventh, dropping into the Challenge Cup instead.

The South African side travel to Dublin next weekend to face reigning champions Leinster in the quarter-finals knowing their European fate may ultimately depend on results elsewhere, albeit a highly unlikely string of results.

Of course, should Montpellier come away victorious in Spain, normal service resumes.