Champions Cup quarter-final predictions as pools reach halfway mark
This past weekend of rugby brought the Heineken Champions Cup to the halfway mark of the pool stage and helped dispel plenty of pre-tournament predictions on who might make the knockout rounds.
There have been surprise packages, such as the undefeated Toulouse, whilst there have also been significant disappointments, such as the winless Wasps.
At this point, we now have a clearer view of how each pool is likely to turn out and what it could mean for the quarter-finals, where a home draw can be the difference-maker in a run all the way to the final, whilst an away fixture can mean an early exit.
In Pool 1, Toulouse have been composed and efficient in shooting into top spot with three wins and 12 points from their opening three games. They’ve gone to Bath and Wasps and won, as well as seeing off the reigning European champions, Leinster, at Stade Ernest Wallon. The only thing working against them is that they haven’t managed to secure a try bonus point in any of the three games, which means that Leinster sit just two points behind them, despite having lost in Toulouse.
Given that the two sides will meet in Dublin in January, the advantage still looks to be with Leinster, despite Toulouse’s impressive start to the campaign. With both Bath and Wasps having to make the trip to the south-west of France, the Top 14 side are in excellent position to grab a best runners-up spot, however, potentially even the best of the three qualifying slots, meaning they could avoid the overall number one or two seed.
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Watch: The Rugby Pod discuss some star South Africans who might be on the move to the Premiership.
On to Pool 2 and Munster have taken control of the group, brushing aside Castres this past weekend, drawing away at Exeter Chiefs and beating Gloucester at Thomond Park. The trip to Stade Pierre Fabre will prove a much larger challenge for Munster than their home defeat of Castres, but it is another winnable game, as is the home tie with Exeter, with the side from Devon looking out of sorts.
The key clash in Pool 2 comes on January 11th, when Gloucester host Munster at Kingsholm. The Cherry and Whites are just three points behind Munster and having beaten Exeter away this past weekend, look like they can make a real push for qualification, especially if they can consolidate that win with another one this weekend, this time at home.
In Pool 3, there have been no surprises as Saracens have taken control, winning all three games and picking up two bonus points. There’s a good chance they sweep all six games, but even if they don’t, they are red-hot favourites to top the group and the more interesting question will be can Glasgow Warriors do enough to wrap up a best runners-up spot.
Glasgow’s excellent win in Lyon at the weekend has taken them to 10 points and, if both sides maintain their current form, you would expect no less than a further four points at Scotstoun in Round 4. A trip to Allianz Park in January is unlikely to offer much, but a home tie against the Cardiff Blues could add another four or five points to the tally. If the Warriors can finish with 18-20 points, they should make the quarter-finals.
Pool 4 is becoming increasingly straightforward, too, with Racing 92 offering a similar dominance to Saracens, having won three games, with two also offering up bonus points. Their run-in is slightly harder than Saracens, with away trips to Welford Road and the Kingspan, but there will be little more than pride for the Scarlets to play for in Paris in Round 6.
At nine points, Ulster are in the mix for a best runners-up spot, although the likes of Toulouse and Glasgow are in stronger positions. The province could find themselves going up against the loser of the Gloucester vs Munster game and one of Newcastle Falcons or Edinburgh, for that final spot.
Speaking of Edinburgh, they took control of Pool 5 on Friday evening, besting a depleted and rotated Newcastle side. That said, Newcastle can regain control of the group this weekend at Kingston Park, if they bring back their key players and overcome the challenge of the Scottish side. Can Newcastle get enough bodies back at tighthead in time, though?
Falcons will fancy their chances against Toulon at Kingston Park in January, but even with Montpellier looking out of sorts, a win away at the GGL Stadium seems a big ask for the Premiership side, especially with one eye on the relegation battle in their domestic competition. Edinburgh also face off against those two French sides in January, but their collection of three bonus points in their opening three games just gives them the edge over Newcastle at this point.
Predicted quarter-finals:
Saracens (1st) vs Gloucester (8th)
Leinster (2nd) vs Glasgow Warriors (7th)
Racing 92 (3rd) vs Toulouse (6th)
Munster (4th) vs Edinburgh (5th)
Watch: Guinness has been announced as the title sponsor for the Six Nations from 2019.
Comments on RugbyPass
wel the crusaders were beaten by a queensland reds side that hadnt beaten them at home since 1999 and queensland reds partied like it was 1999
4 Go to commentsHard to disagree with the 5 points - with the exception that Wilson should be a squad member but, depending on the other loose forward selections, is not yet a shoo-in. McReight is. Aussie is looking a lot better this year and JS has some selection options. Also, Havili’s tendency to get caught, charged down is also a liability at times but he seemed focused (mostly) and is definitely a consideration for utility back-up. Still feel Reihana is a better prospect at 1st five for Saders.
4 Go to commentsYeah nah, still not sure on Havili tbh. Even though I’m a Crusaders fan through and through I’d be stunned if Razor considers him after seeing some of the stunning talent coming through up North.
4 Go to commentsThink it was a great defensive performance by Northampton. They didn't have stage fright in the first half, the Nienaber defense smothered them. They limited Leinster to 15-3 in the first half. It could have been over by then. A great try from Leinster in the start of the second half looked to have sealed it. But Byrne missed another conversion. Northampton started trying little kicks behind the Leinster wingers. Leinster messed one and Smith brilliantly made the conversion. Leinster decided to tighten the game after Byrne missed a straight forward penalty. A few errors got NH into the 22 and they scored and converted with a few minutes left. Another brilliant steal from Lawes saw NH have a final attack which was turned over by Conan. A classic semi final. World record attendance of 82,300. Leinsters 3 week preparation warranted for this one.
1 Go to commentsJust came back from the game and the atmosphere was amazing. Players stayed afterwards for more than a hour to sign stuff and take photos with fans. Great day out.
5 Go to commentsA great game. The Sharks without Etsebeth are a shadow of the team compared to when he plays. The limitations of Some of the expensive Sharks players are being exposed. Credit to Clermont for some exhilaration play at times.
5 Go to comments100% Mr Owens. But who would want to be a referee.? It must be the most difficult job on earth.
1 Go to commentsStarts to be overdone and oversold this systematic SA narrative…which nevertheless has the merit in this case to recognise blatant refereeing mistakes in their favor
5 Go to commentsNice article. Shades of Steinbeck. They can win the final if they take the game seriously; but only if they take it seriously.
5 Go to commentsWhat a sad way to end a glittering career. Somebody should tell him to delete his social media accounts and face the consequences of what he's done. Then he should slip away quietly into obscurity. This isn't likely to happen, something tells me he'll be back in The Sun / Daily Mail sooner rather than later.
5 Go to commentsguys its fine! he understands why he did what he did and has taken accountability for it; why should he have to be accountable to a court? after all he did was abuse people in person - its not as if he was engaging in _online_ abuse!
5 Go to commentsChiefs flanker Kaylum Boshier yellow-carded for collapsing the scrum as it rolled towards the line. It was a maul….
1 Go to commentsyou know, i’m a leinster fan so I want Northampton to lose and it is gonna be tuff with Cortney lawes, Alex michell and the other guys🏉 lets go leinster🏉
1 Go to commentsWelcome to the Pro ranks. Those hard teams of old do hit the sole better though. its a dog fight at the top.
6 Go to commentsCan someone fill me in please, I've read a number of Ben Smith articles now and it seems he's got something again South Africa? Surely, this game was over and done with 7 months ago. Can't we have something a bit more interesting and relevant, or is this the calibre of journalist on this site?
238 Go to commentsNot sure what the Welsh are moaning about. They’ve had far more players off England, than England have had off Wales. Guys like Josh Hathaway and Kane James will play for Wales in the end. And they’ll be fsr better players for having played in the Gallagher Premiership, than they ever would have been had they stayed mired in the shambles that is Welsh rugby.
4 Go to commentsThis is all being blown totally out of proportion. First of all, since half the Irish team isn’t Irish - it’s very likely that none of the Irish players said that at all and, thus, we’re not being arrogant. Second, since half the Irish team is Kiwi - it’s very likely the Kiwi players were predicting a NZ SA World Cup final. Which they got spot on. Good on them!
163 Go to commentsAha. An Irishman with logic! Follow the flow: - Ireland peaks with a >80% win record between 2020 and 2023. And then… - crashes out of another QF at the WC; - Beat a poor French Team; - Beat 6N wooden spoonists Italy; - Play shite against eventual wooden spoonists Wales; - Lose against the most boring, “the worst English team ever” , a team widely regarded as unable to attack; - scrape through against Scotland. This article, No - Trimble, is on the money! Except for one glaring statement: _The Springboks have a few aces in the hole in this debate being the reigning world champions and official world number ones_ There is no debate, boys and girls. There it is. In black and white. “Reigning World Champions and OFFICIAL world number ones”. Come July, the overrated Andy Farrell and this overhyped team are going to enter into a world of hurt.
90 Go to commentsI’d like to know what homoerotic events Daniel enjoyed at 8th man. I clearly missed out!
20 Go to commentsThis article is missing some detail, like some actual context or info about what led to him abusing the ref.
2 Go to comments