Having dual lock/loose forward cover could decide these three World Cup squad spots for the All Blacks
With squads of 31 allowed for the Rugby World Cup in Japan, most teams will be taking 9 locks and loose forwards. It’s a tight area that needs a mix of specialism and flexibility. Mike Rehu takes a look at what the All Blacks squad might look like for these positions.
With Sam Cane’s successful outing off the pine for the Chiefs at the weekend, it would seem that six lock/loose forward places are sealed in the All Blacks’ RWC squad. Cane showed no physical effects coming back and more importantly has lost none of his love for contact.
When you reel off the names Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Scott Barrett, Kieran Read, Ardie Savea and Sam Cane you are talking about half a dozen of the best players in the world. No argument there.
That leaves space for only three more players to cover these two positions. Liam Squire has not played for seven months, withdrawing from the Highlanders’ bench two weeks ago and now is out of action for ‘personal reasons’. It adds a load of intrigue on who will be the other three players on the plane.
All Blacks’ coach Steve Hansen has consistently supported Squire and with good reason. At the peak of his powers, he is a destructive force with the ball and on defence. Supporters of other candidates’ point to the fact that Liam Squire has never started three tests in a row, an important point when the spectre of three knockout games against the best in the world have to be played in three weeks.
However, if Squire’s personal issues go away, he gets on the field and Hansen follows through on being faithful to his experienced troops you have seven pros who will form the pod that will be selected for the big games.
If we anticipate that Hansen will go with experience in the South African pool game and knock out matches you would look at a back row and locking unit of 8. Read 7. Cane 6. Squire 5. Retallick 4. Whitelock and have Barrett and Savea off the bench for impact.
It would appear that you have at least 12 other players who have a chance at the final two spots. Let’s have a shot at giving them a percentage mark of making the squad. My choices may surprise you. What would your choices be?
Patrick Tuipulotu – 37%
“Wait!” I hear you say, “there’s only room for three locks and you have them already!” My theory is that Scott Barrett is ranked 2nd behind Squire in the blindside flanker position, so if Squire goes down and Barrett is judged as a swing player rather than specialist lock you will need one more big man. Paddy has a great mixture of line out ability (29 takes, 2 steals), hard yards up the middle and offloading (11 defenders beaten and 12 successful offloads).
Dalton Papalii – 36%
If you have a true lock in Tuipulotu in the squad, the last player needs to cover all loose forward positions and Papalii has the inside running. His Super numbers are looking great for 2019, even though he is flying under the radar. He’s averaging over 5 metres a carry this season (more than Savea), two tries, has great turnover numbers with low errors (12 made, 3 lost) and he’s a line out target. He is the third option for all loose forward positions. (8 Read, Savea, Papalii. 7 Cane, Savea, Papalii. 6 Squire, Barrett, Papalii).
Vaea Fifita – 35%
If they don’t go for Tuipolotu then Fifita will be the choice to step up as the 4th lock/3rd 6 role. If Barrett is the 2nd ranked starting 6 and started he would probably be pencilled in to move to lock after 60 minutes and Fifita would take over at 6. This leaves us with less power in a 4th lock option for pool games/injuries but more athleticism. Fifita’s line out work has been fantastic this season, 42 takes and 5 steals but his error rate around the field has been very high, 12 turnovers given away on dropped balls and his tackle completion rate is down at 81.6%.
Shannon Frizzell – 32%
Frizell would be the preferred candidate over Fifita if they want the muscle. He is a major asset is around the field; 6 tries, and an almost 95% tackle completion rate. He has beaten 50% more defenders than Fifita and has 400% more offloads with less time on the field. If he was selected over Tuipolotu and Fifita we’d be exposed at lock.
Matt Todd – 25%
Todd would vault into contention if Cane or Savea went down. As you’d expect, he has a high tackle count (125 at 93.3% completion) great turnover rate (16 made, 10 lost) but low carry rates. Sadly suffers from being the third choice and a specialist openside.
Tom Robinson, Luke Jacobson and Luke Whitelock – 8%
The Big Red had been the form 6 in Super rugby until Jacobson started his startling run. Jacobson’s rise has muddied the water over both of them. The Chief’s stocks could rise if Papalii is injured and the selectors are looking for an athlete who covers 6,7 and 8. These two guys are locked in for the future but it’s difficult to see the selectors giving them the nod this year. A speculative run in warm up games perhaps?
Whitelock is a defensive leader and senior player, he could come into contention if Read was not right.
Akira Ioane – 5%
Has improved his work rate and churning out some good stats. He has played massive minutes (920), his tackle rate is 91.3% and he is the top 20 for Carries, defenders beaten and turnovers. Certainly has a shot at 8 for next year with no Read although it’s interesting that the Highlanders tried Frizell at 8 at the weekend.
Jordan Taufua and Elliot Dixon – 3%
Both players are great grafters and have experience but there would have to be a miserable run of injuries before they are in the frame.
Sam Warburton discusses Wales’ World Cup chances:
Comments on RugbyPass
A Turtle has more pace and leg drive than Owen Franks, so it’s a good thing he only had to run 90 metres for that try.
2 Go to commentsOh Tamati Tua was in the vastly over-rated Leon MacDonalds Blues system? Well, no wonder he was wasted, much like Emoni Narawa and Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens under MacDonald. now look at them. Good thing Tua isn’t eligible, the Aussies latch on to any player who isn’t tied down.
2 Go to commentsMark Telea is a lot of things, but a defensive juggernaut has never been one of them. There will be far bigger tests in that regard for the youngster.
10 Go to commentsLove and respect to Fiji but not a chance outside of 7s
4 Go to commentsGood summation Ned. Agree the Canes were out-muscled for once (except at the scrum!) by a focused Brumbies outfit. Tua deserves consideration for higher honors after the way he humbled Jordie and the Canes defense. Thankfully, his lack of eligibility for Oz keeps him from Joe’s plans. While I also agree the injuries affected the Canes performance, some players seemed to lack focus and intensity for this match. Perhaps after the Blues demolished the Brumbies, they thought it was going to be easy? A good reminder that any slip up in preparation can have a big affect on the result. Brumbies deserved that win.
2 Go to commentsKarl Dixon should never have been appointed this fixture, absolute disgrace, He’s not much of a referee anyway, didn't have the balls to send his mate care off
5 Go to commentsBrilliant article! Harry of 8/9
1 Go to comments‘UK athletes' have been in the NFL from the start.
1 Go to commentsIt’s going to be Scott Barrett. He’s the coaches mate and captain of a previously elite team. Ardie a great option but scooter has worked with the coach and Ardie still as big a leader as needed.
23 Go to commentsI commend Colin Scotts bio All Balls. He was the first Aussie to make it to NFL. But he was poached and did a full apprenticeship at the University of Hawaii. He was 130kgs surfed played 1st grade cricket etc. big guy by normal but not NFL standards and a top athlete. Even then the nfl were picking up Tongans and Samoans for their natural size and explosive power. They want explosive power not cardio from the big boys so a guy like Taniela Tupou would have been good if picked up young enough. He has fast twitch and they’d bulk the little lad up and give him something to do. soccer teams set up academies and look for Over Sara’s talent eg Messi was at Barcelona since a teenager and harry kewell went to Leeds as a teenager like 16 or something.
11 Go to commentsThe article alludes to the fact that this isn’t about picking a captain. But picking a great captain. So who would make for a great All Black captain - not just an obvious or safe shoo-in? I’m not sure Ardie’s the guy and Barret doesn’t stand out either.
23 Go to commentsI guess we may all agree on the fact, that the ABs and Boks are the two in contest for No 1 in rugby history (the triple-A sort of) …. the Wallabies, England and France are the next tier, with Ireland being the new kid in town (AA) …. in my view it makes little sense creating imaginary competitions (unless you have too much time to waste)
45 Go to commentsWhat a joke. Total joke and the pundits commentating, all of whom know a bit about the game, could barely disguise their contempt. Reaching for the card then pulling back when he realised a red card would carry further match suspensions is simply not his decision to make. A clear and obvious influence on the outcome of this match and indeed, the championship path.
5 Go to commentsI like the idea, in NZ the Ranfurly Shield and NPC coexist, both having their own bragging rights. The World Cup would be the pinnacle, but the competition and travels of these trophies would be interesting.
45 Go to commentsDon’t worry Sonny bill Williams leave that awkward situation about the curfew in the pass whoever it was it doesn’t matter its no big deal we back our All Blacks through the storm and the thunder until we see the Sun light again.
42 Go to commentsWho listens to this retard? He was a massive liability as a player but obviously a media sensation
42 Go to commentsI’m not surprised by such ‘virtue signalling’ by Sonny Boy. Butter wouldn’t melt in his mouth. He’s such a pious Islamic muppet, imo.
42 Go to commentsI’ve actually never heard of the guy (then I don’t watch League as it is boring). But if he is good enough.. then good luck to him. If not, well, he can always return to league.
2 Go to commentsIt is pretty clear that by almost any measure that NZ are a more successful rugby nation than South Africa. Quite aside from the distasteful events during the last RWC final. NZ lead SA in all significant measurements.
45 Go to commentsDickson went to his pocket for a card, saw who it was, changed his mind and spoke at length to TMO. One angle clearly shows Care diving over a Saints player to kill the ball. 1st yellow, reason given for not Red was player was falling backwards. He was only falling backwards after contact with Lawes. Graham try should have stood. Mitchell did not have both hands on the ball, ball went forward from a Saints boot dragging over it. 2 intentional knock-on's. One of which had an overlap on the outside. If Quins are happy to win by intentional foul play, then it does not say much for them. Would appear to be a bad day for Karl Dickson, also for the RFU in appointing a Ref who spent 8 years as a player at one of the clubs.
5 Go to comments