Analysis: Why Scotland's defensive system made Huw Jones look worse than he actually is
Two big missed tackles by Scotland’s centre Huw Jones lead to two big tries and a total of 12 points for Wales. With a final scoreline of 21-10, these misses proved pivotal in the end.
Scotland’s star midfielder has come under the spotlight following the performance, with question marks surrounding his defensive fortitude. The two slip-ups were costly misses that no doubt Jones himself would like to have back again.
However, structural problems in Scotland’s defensive system made Jones look worse than he actually is, with no fail-safe second-line built in. Any Scottish defender that misses a one-on-one assignment is going to end up looking very ordinary.
Huw Jones’ tackle success rate of 85% for Scotland in 2018 is the best of any international outside centre this year, ahead of Mathieu Bastareud (83%), Anton Lienert Brown (83%), Ryan Crotty (83%), Gary Ringrose (83%), Jack Goodhue (78%), Jesse Kriel (73%), Samu Kerevi (68%) and Henry Slade (57%).
He is in the upper echelon of all midfield defenders but his performance against Wales was a dip below his usual high standards. Even so, two missed tackles doesn’t usually equal 12 points. It is not every day that a player’s only two missed tackles of the match leads directly to two tries.
The George North tackle
Wales looked to use power winger George North frequently out towards the left-hand side, using set-piece to work that way before working in a play around North on the third or fourth phase.
Wales run a screen pass on the left edge with Davies (13) running short and North (14) out the back.
From the high angle camera shot, we see Scotland’s full defensive line. Both wingers are up in the line on the edges, and the halfback is also in the line to the far right.
Scotland plays with just one man in the backfield, the fullback, expecting him to cover the vast space in behind and the last man on both edges. There is no rolling coverage where the opposite wing (11) drops back and across to help, and the halfback doesn’t track the ball in behind the ruck as a sweeper.
The absence of this second-line makes Scotland vulnerable to conceding tries on every line break and also to big plays from a short attacking kicking game, which Wales also tried early on.
Anscombe’s decision and timing on the pass is perfect, playing late and picking North out the back after Jones bites in on Davies’ short line.
Jones is still able to recover and attempt a tackle though, but the play has put North on his outside, forcing him to make a side-on tackle rather than front-on.
With North’s power running game, this is all Wales need to achieve to be in with a chance.
Jones has a high lunging attempt on North, slides off the tackle and North skips through a few dive tackles from Scotland’s trailing defence to score.
Jones’ attempt to hit North with a high point of contact, in an upright position from the side with no base stability makes it easier for North to win the initial collision and continue on.
Jones is aerial at the point of contact and has deleveraged all of his power by leaving his feet early.
He is too vertical to be effective from the side and swings around North’s body, brushed away by North extending out his right arm and breaking the wrap.
But why was it so easy for North to score?
Scotland’s fullback Blair Kinghorn (15) also contributes to this, caught a little bit in no man’s land, neither completely up in the line shutting the last man or hanging back inside to cover a possible break.
In all the stills, he is watching the play unfold but doesn’t anticipate a possible breach. It is a harsh assessment but great defensive fullbacks have this instinct and are able to cover for multiple possible scenarios.
Kinghorn seems to have all his eggs in one basket with Wales wing Luke Morgan. The ‘give’ from North is the tuck of the ball – he is only going to run fromt that point on. As North makes contact with Jones, Kinghorn continues to push down into line and out towards the wing.
As there is no sweeper support from the halfback or opposite wing, North has an open passage to the line, which he takes full advantage of.
What is promising about Huw Jones is he doesn’t make the same mistake again. Wales try to run the same play on the stroke of halftime in the exact same position but he doesn’t bite on Davies.
Jones stays put and reads North out the back, leaving Davies for his inside defence.
Anscombe plays short this time and Scotland defends the play, while Jones has North covered this time.
The Jonathan Davies tackle
On this set-piece play, Wales do a great job of creating a numbers advantage. A long pass by halfback Gareth Davies puts the wheels in motion to run this overload sweep play.
Anscombe (10) and North (14) run sweep lines in an attempt to overload Scotland’s edge defence. They succeed in getting ball to Anscombe on the outside of Scotland’s inside centre Alex Dunbar.
Huw Jones immediately recognizes he is at a disadvantage and begins to back off, tracking back to buy time for inside support to recover and stay alive as long as possible.
He does a great job of playing off the runners, shadowing both Anscombe and Davies to cover both bases. He gets Anscombe to pass before committing him, giving himself the chance to shut down the play.
But again the same tackle technique fails, getting a well-timed fend from Jonathan Davies and slipping off the runner.
Scotland has no sweep coverage from the blind winger and Davies goes unobstructed 35-metres to score.
A second look at the play reveals that Scotland switches flyhalf Adam Hastings (10) with left-wing Lee Jones (11) in the front line before the play.
Hastings is so far deep and doesn’t react to the sweep line of George North (14), failing to anticipate the need to be on the other side of the field. Again, Ali Price (9) is not performing in any type of sweeper role. Hastings tries to make it across but is not able to lay a finger on Davies.
Huw Jones isn’t solely to blame
Scotland needs to re-think how the back three operate in tandem and the role of the halfback to provide a second-line in defence.
There is more work that those players can do off the ball to strengthen Scotland’s system. It will require them to cover more ground and possess greater anticipatory skills.
As it is, they have limited means to stop any line breaks from becoming five points, as proven from the above examples. They are also at risk of getting opened up by an attacking kicking game, which nearly happened early when Anscombe’s chip bounced into the lap of George North, only a foot into touch in the process of scoring denying them.
After the first miss on George North, Jones showed his ability to adjust during the game and correct his mistakes. When faced with the exact same scenario again he reacted differently, making the correct read a second time around.
On the Davies miss, Jones played the coverage very well and only a lack of execution on the tackle let him down. Jones might look to adjust his approach when faced with a side-on tackle, which was the case in both instances.
Jones defensive game as a whole is one of the best in the world, with the centre able to expertly cover overlaps with a jockey technique, shadow two players at once when necessary, show good patience when required and physicality in front-on tackles.
The two missed tackles are technical misjudgments, where a low, chop tackle around the legs may have served him better. The two players that beat him aren’t too bad either, many others have fallen victim to North and Davies.
If anything, the Wales game showed that there are always improvements to be made, even by the very best, with how he approaches a side-on tackle one of the lessons to take away.
In other news:
Comments on RugbyPass
Dagg is still trying to get enough headlines to make himself relevant enough to get a job. The Crusaders went back to square one at all levels. Shelve this season and nail the next one.
4 Go to commentsHe was in such great form. Sad for him but only a short term injury and it will be great to see him back for the finals.
1 Go to commentsAfter their 5/0 start, I had the Crusaders to finish Top 4 only…they lost the plot in Perth but will reload and back themselves vs 4th placed Rebels…
3 Go to commentsBoth nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
3 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
6 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
6 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
3 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
3 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
37 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
2 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
3 Go to comments