Analysis: Why aren’t the All Blacks scoring from set-piece attack anymore?
The All Blacks have been blowing teams off the park in 2018 – by an average scoreline of 40 to 12. All Test matches have followed a similar script, a tight first half followed by a second-half explosion of points.
Counter-attack and turnover play has been grabbing all the headlines, as the deadly efficiency of the All Blacks’ free-form play has been responsible for most of their points.
Despite tries coming by the bucketload, one area of the All Blacks’ game that hasn’t been firing is the typically productive set-piece.
Just three tries have been scored through set-piece strike plays this year, and two of these were one-pass plays direct from Aaron Smith – one try down a short-side to free Reiko Ioane and one try with Damian McKenzie running a hard line into the 9-10 channel (aided by some referee obstruction) against France.
It has been the least effective aspect of the All Blacks’ game (in terms of points scoring) so far this season, and offers at least one area with which the team can improve.
Eventually, there will be a day where turnover ball dries up, and New Zealand fans will be praying this isn’t during a World Cup knockout match. The world number two, Ireland, is renowned for mistake-free possession-based rugby. Even Scotland last year controlled the majority of the game at Murrayfield with a large possession percentage. The All Blacks striking with two set-piece plays in that game put the match just beyond the reach of the Scots, illustrating their importance.
The basic foundation of All Blacks set piece play
The All Blacks set-piece attack has been working from the same base play for a couple of years now.
The standard play used is having the second five-eighth take the ball to the line, with the option of playing the centre short or the first five looping around the back. The 12 will often get the ball direct from the halfback unless it’s a lineout, where a 10 can be used as a link to help the ball reach the midfield from the touchline.
The 12 can either hold the ball and take contact, play short to 13 or play the backdoor to 10 to attack the wider channels. Blindside wingers can be ‘attached’ at various stages of the play to offer another variable. Often the All Blacks use one of the first two options, which results in a simple midfield crash that sets up the All Blacks phase play.
The most central cog in the All Blacks set-piece attack has become the 12. He handles the ball more than the 10, either as a crash runner or as a decision-maker deciding to play the short runner or the backdoor.
This is why Ryan Crotty and Sonny Bill Williams determine how effective the All Blacks set-piece attack can be, and more often than not, when Williams is in the line up the side starts to open up teams more.
Crotty will do the job but can be more easily controlled by the opposition, whereas Williams brings size and offloading skills, which really causes headaches for the opposition and opens up the lane for the 13.
His size commands attention from multiple defenders, and if you only have one man on him, his arm can be free to get the ball away. Even if he commits two defenders he can get the arm away.
https://giphy.com/gifs/2fVxt3xoIF6p5rFtmr
In the absence of Williams, this version of the All Blacks set-piece attack has been rather pedestrian, struggling to make frequent line breaks and score points.
This base play is called on most scrums and a large number of lineouts in good field position – in the opposition half or around halfway. When they go without their central playmaker, Williams, it is not nearly as effective.
Lineout options
The All Blacks have mainly used 6-man and 7-man lineouts across all areas of the field. In midfield situations, they have gone off the top and played with a bit more creativity, on occasion using the full backline to run strike plays.
On these limited occasions they haven’t turned the ball over, but haven’t deceived enough to create line breaks. The more moving parts, the more difficult the play is to execute. The All Blacks haven’t found the timing yet to pull off impressive strike plays on a regular basis.
Just one has been done this year, with McKenzie and Williams as the 10-12 combination, using the same base play with the blind winger Rieko Ioane lurking inside off McKenzie.
https://giphy.com/gifs/FfET9HLc4cQNAgPalV
Work in progress
Beauden Barrett’s running game is his obvious strength, while he isn’t renown for ball playing flat at the line. He can distribute early ball across the backline, short and long with reliability, but hasn’t been seen taking on the line and playing others into space often.
It could be said that Barrett’s role during set-piece has been minimized like no other 10 in international rugby due to the importance of the 12 to the All Blacks set-piece attack. He rarely plays first receiver, and if he does it’s usually to distribute early ball. They haven’t used him as a playmaker and haven’t found the best way to create space out wide for him as a runner either.
Without the natural force of Sonny Bill Williams in the lineup, the side lacks a true ball player who can play flat and free the likes of Rieko Ioane, Waisake Naholo and Ben Smith, resulting in teething issues.
Aaron Smith can take some of the playmaking load, but a balanced playbook around both 9-10 keeps the opposition guessing. Using Smith frequently will always be in close channels, forgoing the chance to attack the wider channels.
Until they can find someone who can provide fill that second ball player role in tandem with Smith, the back line won’t be opening up teams in one phase strikes. McKenzie is probably the most developed in this area, but won’t be starting at 10 anytime soon.
Necessity or nice-to-have?
Although they haven’t been scoring directly off strike plays, the All Blacks have been finding the chalk a few phases later after building pressure through normal patterns. They have been able to break down France and Australia fairly easily with ball in hand.
With England and Ireland to come later in the year, there is a need to find a better return from the set-piece platform. Both those sides are better at absorbing pressure during phase play with 14-men available in the defensive line.
When playing a strong defensive side, the opportunity to strike with the extra space afforded in the 7-on-7 situation set-piece situations is golden, which is why finding a lethal set-piece attack is imperative before the Northern tour.
Having a healthy Sonny Bill Williams back will immediately boost the set-piece attack but the All Blacks need to explore more scrum plays that attack the edge, showing more intent than simply crashing into the midfield. Improved efficiency from set-piece strike plays will provide the third dimension to the attack that has been missing in 2018.
Comments on RugbyPass
Both nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
1 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
6 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
6 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
3 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
3 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
28 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
2 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
3 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
3 Go to commentsLions might take him on if they move on Van Rooyen but I doubt he will want to go back, might consider it a step backwards for himself. Sharks would take him on but if Plumtree goes on to win the challenge cup they will keep him on. Also sharks showing some promising signs recently. Stormers and Bulls are stable and Springboks are already filled up. Quality coach though, interesting to see where he ends up
1 Go to commentsAnd the person responsible for creating a culture of accountability is?
3 Go to comments