Analysis: How Gareth Davies and Finn Russell are deliberately targeting robotic 9s and 10s
The advent of organised modern-day rugby patterns has brought with it a predictable sense of inevitability. With most teams running similar versions of each others’ schemes during phase play, it has never been easier to identify a phase in advance.
When that team doesn’t execute that phase with well-timed ‘lead-running’ passing, a high-pressure defence can make a heads-up play.
Australia became the latest victim of Wales’ halfback Gareth Davies who had two intercepts in the 29-25 pool stage win, one of which provided seven critical points, and he bombed a third which may have been seven more.
Continue reading below…
Davies’ read of the play comes from being able to identify the intended recipient by seeing what the structured set-up is and preying on the inability of the distributor to react differently under pressure.
After a stretch to the sideline, the Wallabies bring play back right with a carry off nine, before setting up to play a second pod off 10 in a traditional 1-3-3-1 pattern.
Halfback Davies, defending in the middle third, identifies the setup and can make an educated guess that Foley’s target is the second forward in the pod.
Sprinting off the line, Davies brings line speed that Foley doesn’t pick up just going through the motions of his pre-programmed pass.
Foley’s footwork is stationary, standing on the same spot waiting for the ball to get to him adding depth to the play. His outside pod is also rather stationary. These are issues that become a theme in all these big interception plays, sitting back and allowing the defence to force the pressure.
Foley delivers his pass with Davies bearing down at pace. He cuts off the passing lane to the intended target Tolu Latu (2), intercepting the pass. Only back-door receiver James O’Connor (13) prevents this from being more, making a crucial one-on-one tackle.
Davies was able to bank on Foley sticking to the script, coming up with a turnover that ultimately led to Wales’ first try.
We have seen Davies do this before, against Scotland at home in the opening game of the Six Nations last year.
After Scotland go wide, they try to bring play back left to the 15 metre mark with a rather long pass from halfback Ali Price (9) to a pod of three forwards.
The set-up is too wide for Price so he has to taxi off the ruck, giving Davies an extra second to press off the line.
The primary target, prop Jon Welsh (3), is standing flat-footed, as is the back-door receiver Chris Harris (13) and the support runner on the right, Ben Toolis (4).
They are not moving and Davies is, as Price had already picked up the ball, allowing the defence to move up.
By the time the ball almost reaches a stationary Welsh, Davies is there to grab it.
There is no chance for Harris to make a tackle like O’Connor and Davies goes 60 metres the other way and scores.
By not timing a run before the halfback has picked up the ball, setting up too wide, and then not even running to meet the ball while it was being delivered, Scotland ship five points.
At the very least, moving forward to compete for the ball and try to undercut Davies to potentially cause a knock-on and a stop in play would be a better option than standing like a deer in the headlights.
Scotland’s own flyhalf Finn Russell has also picked up on the tendency of playmakers to just go through the motions, and made the same play twice earlier this year which led to two tries for his side.
Ireland have run this same set-up for over two years now, making this an easy play to diagnose.
After a three-man pod off the scrumhalf, if they go the same way, Ireland runs with a two-man pod outside 10 and a midfielder in behind (Bundee Aki above).
They do run a variety of plays out of this formation, but they all use Carbery as a distributor to get the ball wider. So, Russell knows that Carbery has basically pre-determined what he will do.
Murray’s pass is directed at a stationary Carbery, who like Foley above, is stuck in cement and is only going to swivel to shovel the ball onward.
Carbery almost has the ball and his outside pod hasn’t moved either, waiting for a cue to begin their run, which is going to be at a pedestrian pace compared to the speed at which Russell is coming.
Carbery turns and attempts to hit the second runner, which allows Russell to continue his path up the middle of the two-man pod.
Russell snatches the pass, steps Aki and races downfield before popping a late offload to Sam Johnson for the try.
It’s once again a static, predictable play, and no adjustment from Carbery led to this situation.
A couple of weeks later, Russell does the same thing to Owen Farrell at Twickenham, but this time undercuts a pass intended for the first forward in the two-man pod.
Gareth Davies repeats the dosage on Will Genia trying to do exactly what Ali Price did, bringing play back to the 15 from the edge.
The Wallabies have just re-gathered their own kick-off, but don’t effectively transition into attack all that well.
The forwards are late to form the pod, coming together after Genia has picked up the ball. Davies may have jumped the gun a little bit, but for Australia everyone is static waiting for a long pass to be delivered, floating through the air like a sitting duck.
Bernard Foley (10) is nowhere near his position behind the pod, which becomes a problem after Davies picks off the pass.
The rise of these targeted intercepts is a result of the widespread adoption of the same patterns and decision-makers who aren’t able to adjust when they don’t have their pods set-up correctly or able to feel the pressure coming and bail.
All of All Blacks‘ key drivers showed good decision-making against similar pressure in Wellington against the Springboks.
The predatory scrumhalf Faf de Klerk often defends on the wing following lineouts and can station out there for longer periods. He is known to take risks and was looking all night for an intercept but was unable to get one due to late decision-making.
TJ Perenara (9) is halfway through his passing motion with De Klerk shooting up on the outside.
For whatever reason, he pulls down the pass and runs into the ruck defence preventing a would-be intercept or hospital pass to Beauden Barrett.
Richie Mo’unga (10) shows even more remarkable decision-making as this time De Klerk (9) comes from way back deep trying to jump the pass.
Mo’unga shapes to pass but decides at the very last second to pull it down and take the contact. Perhaps he sensed De Klerk flying through from his peripheral vision and adjusted accordingly, or maybe he just felt something wasn’t right.
De Klerk is seen flying through the air with his arms up where a long pass from Mo’unga would have sailed.
With the All Blacks using their new ‘flush’ system where the ball always goes out the back to first receiving option, the Springboks were bringing the heat up the middle all night where the ball usually ends up for a carry.
Barrett at first reciever senses the danger of Pieter-Steph Du Toit, and pulls down a pass intended for the middle of the central three-man pod and instead carries himself.
The heads-up plays of Russell and Davies show that the best-laid plans can fail and that structured rugby can be reduced to embarrassing plays if you don’t play what’s in front of you.
Systems will only go as far as the ability of the decision-makers put in it and can be undone by instinctual players taking risks in defence. Conversely, avoiding disaster plays like this can be done if you have a decision-maker who knows when to bail on the scripted play in favour of something else.
Gareth Davies and Finn Russell are the first players to consistently expose the predictive nature of modern rugby patterns on a regular basis at the highest level, with Davies’ ball-hawking skills proving to be a big difference against Australia and it could continue to be at this Rugby World Cup.
Wales post-match press conference after Australia win:
Comments on RugbyPass
Awesome story. I wonder what a bigger American (SA) scene might have mean for Brex.
1 Go to comments“Johnny McNicholl and the Crusaders” save a Penney. Who has been in camp this week and showed them how to play?
5 Go to commentsSo, reports of the Crusaders’ demise / terminal decline are perhaps just - slightly - premature/exaggerated…? 🤔 Will we see a deep-dive into that by the estimable Rugbypass scribes, and maybe one or two mea culpas? Thought not.
5 Go to comments1. The Chiefs are rudderless without DMac, which enhances his AB chances 2. Chiefs pack are powderpuffs. The hard men arent there anymore 3. They had their golden title chance last yr and wont threaten this yr. Gone in second round of playoffs.
5 Go to commentsHonestly, why did you have to publish such a foolish article the day they play us? 😂
30 Go to comments> They are not standalone entities. They are linked to an amateur association which holds the FFR licence that allows the professional side to compete in the league. That’s a great rule. This looks like the chicken or egg professional scenario. How long is it going to be before the club can break even (if that is even a thing in French rugby)? If the locals aren’t into well it would be good to se them drop to amateur level (is it that far?). Hope they can reset from this level and be more practical, there will be a time when they can rebuild (if France has there setup right).
1 Go to commentsWhat about changing the ball? To something heavier and more pointed that bounces unpredictably. Not this almost round football used these days.
35 Go to commentsThis is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?
35 Go to commentsWow, didn’t realise there was such apathy to URC in SA, or by Champions Cup teams. Just read Nick’s article on Crusaders, are Sharks a similar circumstance? I think SA rugby has been far more balanced than NZs, no?
2 Go to commentsBut here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.
30 Go to commentsIt could be coincidental or prescient that the All Blacks most dominant period under Steve Hansen was when the Crusaders had their least successful period under Todd Blackadder and then the positions reversed when Razor took over the Crusaders.
30 Go to commentsDefinitely sound read everybodyexpects immediate results these days, I don't think any team would travel well at all having lost three of the most important game changers in the game,compiled with the massive injury list they are now carrying, good to see a different more in depth perspective of a coaches history.
3 Go to commentsSinckler is a really big loss for English rugby.
2 Go to commentsThanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause
30 Go to commentsNo way. If you are trying to picture New Zealand rugby with an All Blacks mindset, there have been two factors instrumental to the decline of NZ rugby to date. Those are the horror that the Blues have become and, probably more so, the fixture that the Crusaders became. I don’t think it was healthy to have one team so dominant for so long, both for lack of proper representation of players from outside that environment and on the over reliance on players from within it. If you are another international side, like Ireland for example, sure. You can copy paste something succinct from one level to the next and experience a huge increase in standards, but ultimately you will not be maximizing it, which is what you need to perform to the level the ABs do. Added to that is the apathy that develops in the whole game as a result of one sides dominance. NZ, Super, and Championship rugby should all experience a boom as a result of things balancing out. That said, there is a lot of bad news happening in NZ rugby recently, and I’m not sure the game can be handled well enough here to postpone the always-there feeling of inevitable decline of rugby.
30 Go to commentsNo SA supporter miss Super Rugby - a product that is experiencing significant head wind in ANZ - the competition from rival codes are intense, match attendance figures are at a historical low and the negativity of commentators such as Kirwan and Wilson have accelerated the downward spiral in NZ. After the next RWC in 2027 sponsors will follow Qantas and start leaving in droves.
2 Go to commentsLike others, I am not seeing the connection between this edition of the Crusaders and the All Blacks future prospects under Razor. I think the analysis of the Crusaders attack recently is helpful because Razor and his coaching team used to be able to slot new guys in to their systems and see them succeed. Several of Razor’s coaches are still there so it would be surprising if the current attack and set piece has been overhauled to a great extent - but based on that analysis, it may have been. Whether it is too many new guys due to injuries or retirement or a failure of current Crusaders systems is the main question to be answered imo. It doesn’t seem relevant for the ABs.
30 Go to commentsharry potter is set in stone. he creates stability and finishes well. exactly what schmidt likes. he’s the ben smith of australian rugby. i think it could quite easily be potter toole and kellaway for the foreseeable future.
5 Go to commentsThis is short sighted from Clayton if you ask me, smacks of too much preseason planning and no adaptability. What if DMac is out for a must win match, are they still only going to bring their best first five and playmaker on late in the game? Trusting the game to someone who wasn’t even part of planning (they would have had Trask pinned in as Jacomb preseason). Perhaps if the Crusaders were better they would not have done this, but either way imo you take this opportunity to play a guy you might need starting in a final rather than having their 12th game getting comfortable coming off the bench.
1 Go to commentsThanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.
21 Go to comments