LONG READ URC season preview: How will the four Welsh regions fare?

While no-one is necessarily expecting a solitary play-off place to be a springboard for a first Welsh title since 2017, last season did bring some cautious reasons for optimism among the four regions competing in the United Rugby Championship.

Scarlets’ rise from a lowly 13^th in 2023-24 to claim the final spot in the knockout stages last term with a late-season run including notable wins over Leinster and the Lions – in Johannesburg – was a welcome development, emulating the Ospreys’ achievement of making the top eight 12 months earlier.

A commendable performance in quarter-final defeat in Dublin against Leinster also suggested something is stirring again in west Wales, seven years on from Scarlets reaching back-to-back finals in the old Pro14.

Cardiff couldn’t quite join them in the last eight, missing out by one place after a tough trip to South Africa in their final two games, but the general trend at the Arms Park was also positive, even if the departure of head coach Matt Sherratt to Wales this week leaves question marks over the capital side’s ability to maintain that upward mobility.

Can Ospreys, who won the last of four league titles in 2012, rebound from an underwhelming campaign and is there any hope for perennial basement dwellers Dragons, who won only one URC match all season?

RugbyPass assesses the prospects of all four regions with a new term poised for lift-off on Friday.

CARDIFF

Ins: Javan Sebastian (Edinburgh), Sam Wainwright (Scarlets), George Nott (Dragons), Taine Basham (Dragons), Ioan Lloyd (Scarlets)

Outs: Rhys Litterick (Edinburgh), Efan Daniel (Ospreys), Seb Davies (Dragons), Thomas Young (Dragons), Gwilym Bradley (unattached), Mackenzie Martin (Dragons, loan), Tinus de Beer (Dragons), Rey Lee-Lo (retired), Regan Grace (unattached), Gabriel Hamer-Webb (Leicester)

First 5 games: Lions (H), Munster (A), Connacht (H), Dragons (A), Edinburgh (H)

Strengths:

Under Matt Sherratt, Cardiff have been easy on the eye, with Ben Thomas calling the shots at inside centre amid a set of backs that includes Cam Winnett, Josh Adams, Mason Grady, Tom Bowen, Iwan Stephens, Callum Sheedy and Theo Cabango, while new recruit Ioan Lloyd should thrive in a side who see themselves more as Cavaliers than Roundheads. Supporters might hope Cardiff will continue to play attractive rugby even though Sherratt has left for a full-time role in the Wales set-up.

Lloyd will compensate for Tinus de Beer’s exit, albeit they are dissimilar players, while at scrum-half Johan Mulder has been an unqualified success and Wales men Aled Davies and Ellis Bevan are also on board.

Those in charge of the team will be especially keen for Grady to stay fit after his injury issues, because Cardiff need a powerful midfield presence, while Stephens and Cabango will also be hoping for a change of fortune on the orthopaedic front.

Up front, there is back-row quality in the shape of Taulupe Faletau, Taine Basham, James Botham, Alex Mann, Ben Donnell, Dan Thomas and Alun Lawrence. At 34, Faletau has miles on the clock, but he still has few peers as a multi-skilled No. 8.

Let’s count the atmosphere at the Arms Park as a plus, too. It positively crackled at times last term, helping Cardiff no end.

Weaknesses:

Winning away in the URC isn’t easy, with long trips and fans not always travelling in numbers, but Sherratt would still have been concerned that Cardiff failed to pick up a single success outside Wales in 2024-25.

There are question marks over their ability to dominate in the front five and they can struggle to make headway with ball in hand. Indeed, they made fewer metres than all but Zebre and the Dragons last time around and finished bottom of the chart for defenders beaten.

How do you fill the gap left by the retired Rey Lee-Lo? Nothing lasts forever and a midfield with Thomas, Grady, Harri Millard and Steffan Emanuel is hardly shabby, but, still, Cardiff will miss Lee-Lo’s footwork, pace and ability to spot gaps that were barely there.

However you look at it, seeing a head coach leave the scene four days before the start of a new season isn’t ideal.

Then there’s the potentially unsettling effect of this week’s coaching news. Sherratt, after all, brought his own distinctive style and thoughts on the game to Cardiff and was popular with the players, who might need time to adapt to life without the amiable Englishman. However you look at it, seeing a head coach leave the scene four days before the start of a new season isn’t ideal.

And while the addition of Javan Sebastian and Sam Wainwright adds front-row depth, opponents will want to test Cardiff in the scrums.

A double-edged one to finish. The Blue and Blacks made the most tackles in the URC last season, showing a commendable appetite for defence, but manning the barricades so often can fatigue players and the coaches will want all concerned to improve Cardiff’s own ball-winning capabilities.

Verdict:

How will the regions react amid uncertainty west of the River Severn? The assumption is all will have points to prove. More specifically, do Cardiff have the forward power to make the play-offs and click quickly post-Sherratt? They just missed out last spring and could struggle to avoid such a fate again.

DRAGONS

Ins: Wyn Jones (Harlequins), Dillon Lewis (Harlequins), Robert Hunt (Cheetahs), Levi Douglas (Biarritz), Seb Davies (Cardiff), Thomas Young (Cardiff), Mackenzie Martin (Cardiff, loan), Niall Armstrong (Exeter), Tinus de Beer (Cardiff), Jac Lloyd (Newport RFC), Fetuli Paea (Zebre), Fine Inisi (Moana Pasifika), David Richards (Newport RFC),

Outs: Dimitri Arhip, Josh Reynolds, Nathan Evans, Joe Davies, George Young (all unattached), George Nott (Cardiff), Dan Lydiate (retired), Taine Basham (Cardiff), George Young (unattached), Dane Blacker (Scarlets), Lloyd Evans (unattached), Josh Thomas (Coventry), Will Reed (Worcester), Scott Williams, Harry Wilson, Ashton Hewitt, Jordan Williams (all unattached)

First 5 games:  Ulster (A), Sharks (H), Glasgow (A), Cardiff (H), Ospreys (H)

Strengths:

The Dragons have undergone a serious overhaul this summer, with 16 new faces and 21 players departing the set-up overall, with the east Wales outfit intent on taking a leap forward.

Hopes are high that their back division will have more punch after the recruitment of Tongan three-quarters Fetuli Paea and Fine Inisi, two powerful tackle-breakers, while Tinus de Beer will offer stability at fly-half and Huw Anderson is expected to blossom at full-back.

Taine Basham’s departure has been offset by the acquisition of Thomas Young, a player who always makes a difference. If head coach Filo Tiatia can get the best out of loan-signing Mackenzie Martin, and restore Solomone Funaki to peak fitness, his back row could become a major plus with Aaron Wainwright, Harrison Keddie, Shane Lewis-Hughes and Ryan Woodman also on board.

And the Dragons have addressed their perennial issues in the front five, with Wales men Wyn Jones and Dillon Lewis brought in at prop alongside South African tighthead Robert Hunt. Levi Douglas should add ballast at lock, where Seb Davies also features alongside Ben Carter and Matthew Screech.

On paper, then, the squad looks stronger.

Weaknesses:

The opening of the film Those Magnificent Men In Their Flying Machines sees a montage of early attempts at powered flight, with a series of individuals doing all they can to achieve their goals, only to rapidly crash to earth, usually amid much frantic flapping of wings.

The Dragons at the start of each rugby season, anyone? Maybe not, but too often the Gwent club have seen optimism give way to reality at an express rate. Last term, for instance, a round-one win over Ospreys was followed by 17 straight league defeats, with the east Walians buckling all too easily, conceding 40-plus points on five occasions. A priority for Tiatia, then, will be to stiffen his players’ resolve.

The only way should be up for the Dragons after the miseries of 2024-25. Tiatia’s initial goal will be to make them hard to beat, especially at home.

And they have to generate more power at the sharp end, because their 2024-25 incarnation came up short too often against bigger, more abrasive packs. Their attack has also been poor historically, but the coaches will hope the recent recruitment changes the picture.

As much as anything, though, it’s the culture that needs strengthening. Tiatia, who did so much on that front as a player with the Ospreys, will have pinpointed that as a key area to work on.

Verdict:

The only way should be up for the Dragons after the miseries of 2024-25. Tiatia’s initial goal will be to make them hard to beat, especially at home. Just maybe, if they can keep key players fit, they could rise three or four places from last season’s basement finish.

OSPREYS

Ins: Efan Daniel (Cardiff), Ryan Smith (Queensland Reds), Ross Moriarty (Brive), Harri Williams (Tuggerranong Vikings)

Outs: George McGuigan, Will Spencer (Chambery), Adam Beard (Montpellier), Will Griffiths (unattached), Rhys Thomas (Aberavon), Justin Tipuric (retired), Tristan Davies (Scarlets), Owen Williams (Nice), Waisea Nayacalevu (Nice)

First 5 games: Bulls (A), Stormers (A), Zebre (H). Glasgow (H), Dragons (A)

Strengths:

Ospreys haven’t been fantastically busy on the recruitment front, but the players they have brought in look to be useful acquisitions. Ross Moriarty will bring a titanium edge in the back row, while Australian lock Ryan Smith defends well, works tirelessly at mauls and is highly regarded as a lineout forward.

The other arrivals are interesting, too. Efan Daniel is a mobile hooker who grafts and achieves turnovers, with ex-Scarlets man Harri Williams a sharp operator who’ll increase the Ospreys’ scrum-half options.

But the strength of Mark Jones’ team will again be up front, with Gareth Thomas, Dewi Lake and Tom Botha set to form a powerful starting front row, Smith joining the likes of Rhys Davies and James Fender in the lock pool and Jac Morgan heading a strong back-row cast that includes Morgan Morris, Morgan Morse, Harri Deaves, Moriarty and James Ratti.

Behind, new Wales scrum-half Reuben Morgan-Williams will want to build on a fine 2024-25 and Dan Edwards should have extra confidence after starting for the national team in the summer.

Jack Walsh and Keelan Giles supply a dash of X-factor to the mix, while Justin Tipuric will add extra know-how to the coaching setup.

Weaknesses:

The Ospreys may have a strong starting pack but there is a significant potential drop-off at tighthead if key scrummager Tom Botha is off limits. At 35, Tom the Bomb isn’t getting any younger, but he is missed when he doesn’t play and the coaches will want to keep him fit.

Coping without the on-pitch skill and intelligence of Tipuric will be another challenge after the flanker’s retirement as a player, while the squad may need time to get used to life without Adam Beard, with the lock an influential Ospreys presence off the field as well as on before his summer move to France.

If everyone stays fit, the Ospreys backs can pose problems for opponents, but it’s a big ask to slow the casualty rate over a season that pushes on towards next summer.

Do Jones’s team have sufficient cover at fly-half given that Edwards will likely be needed by Wales at significant points in the season? Jack Walsh can play there, but he may also be needed at full-back.

Are there enough proven strike weapons across the backline? If everyone stays fit, the Ospreys backs can pose problems for opponents, but it’s a big ask to slow the casualty rate over a season that pushes on towards next summer. Is there enough depth in certain positions?

Verdict:

The Ospreys should be able to compete with most up front but they also need their backs to fire consistently. And they need significant support at their temporary base in Bridgend. Potentially, a play-off spot could be claimed, but it will be tight, very tight.

SCARLETS

Ins: Jake Ball (Green Rockets), Tristan Davies (Ospreys), Dane Blacker (Dragons), Joe Hawkins (Exeter)

Outs: Sam Wainwright (Cardiff), Shaun Wainwright (unattached), Vaea Fifita (Montauban), Alex Craig (Glasgow), Morgan Jones (unattached), Efan Jones (Ampthill), Ioan Lloyd (Cardiff), Steff Evans (unattached)

First 5 games: Munster (H), Connacht (A), Stormers (H), Lions (A), Sharks (A)

Strengths:

The Scarlets made significant strides in their most recent campaign when they improved on almost every metric. They won more matches, scored more tries, picked up more bonus points and conceded fewer tries and bonuses, as well. The net result was a place in the play-offs.

They have one of the top hookers in the competition in Marnus van der Merwe, while Sam Lousi, Jake Ball, Max Douglas, Josh Macleod and Taine Plumtree are high-calibre back-five options. Macleod can be lethal over the ball, with Plumtree adept at turnover tackles.

Stepping out of retirement, Ball will give the lock department a further injection of quality, while behind, the west Walians are awash with midfield options in the shape of Eddie James, Macs Page, Joe Roberts, Johnny Williams and Joe Hawkins.

There are also significant attacking weapons in the back three, with Wales internationals Blair Murray, Tom Rogers and Ellis Mee on the roster.

Nor should we underplay the ongoing worth of scrum-half Gareth Davies, who packed experience and quality into every one of the 1,227 minutes he played in the URC last season. Over the whole piece, he performed as well as any Wales-based No. 9.

Weaknesses:

Discipline proved an issue in 2024-25 with the Scarlets totalling 18 yellow cards over the URC campaign, a total exceeded by only one other side in the competition. It isn’t complicated. If you keep your players on the field, you stand a better chance of winning.

Questions remain, too, over the Scarlets’ ability to handle scrummaging tests against the best. They are not alone among Welsh sides in having that concern, but, still, it is an area where they will want to stand firm. Maybe the return of Ball will add power to the set-piece unit.

No-one is irreplaceable, but the Scarlets will be pushed to find a forward who can run like the wind, poach opposition lineout ball for fun, handle, score tries out of nothing and perform across the lock and loose forward positions.

That said, the exit of Alex Craig is a loss, with the hard-working Scot a standout during his two seasons in Llanelli.

In much the same vein, the departed Vaea Fifita leaves a significant hole.  No-one is irreplaceable, of course, but the Scarlets will be pushed to find a forward who can run like the wind, poach opposition lineout ball for fun, handle, score tries out of nothing and perform across the lock and loose forward positions.

The coaches also need either Sam Costelow or Hawkins to nail down the No. 10 jersey.

Verdict:

Scarlets took a lot from last term and will be looking to maintain momentum. Their scrum needs to perform for them to push on and they need consistency at fly-half. Another play-off spot isn’t out of the question. That said, plenty of others will feel the same way.

RugbyPass will also be assessing the prospects for the Irish, Italian and Scottish teams in the URC over the coming days. In case you missed it, on Monday we looked at the four South African teams.