LONG READ The Springbok selection experiment is far from over

When the Springboks finished the 2024 season with their best win-record since 2013, it seemed like Rassie Erasmus had finally found the formula for sustained success. World Cup titles remain the ultimate, of course, yet many South African players and coaches have expressed their desire to win matches and trophies between global tournaments, and to build a dynasty to rival that of Steve Hansen’s All Blacks.

In 2024, the Boks won 11 out of 13 matches (85%) as well as the elusive Rugby Championship title, while playing a more attacking brand and fielding 50 players over the course of the season. It was a monumental year for South African rugby in terms of results, and appeared to lay the foundations for the seasons leading up to the 2027 World Cup.

Many critics felt that, with a year of experimentation behind them, the Boks would settle on a core group of players in 2025 and start to fine-tune their game plan. Then SA Rugby released a couple of statements in mid-February that made a mockery of all pre-season predictions. Fifty-five South Africa-based players were invited to the first alignment camp of the year, which will be staged in Cape Town from March 7.

SA Rugby went on to confirm that Erasmus would hold a ‘virtual’ camp with 26 other players on 27 March – a contingent that includes 20 stars playing in Europe and Japan.

The upshot is that 80 or so players are in the mix for selection this year – an eyebrow-raising number when one considers that less than half will travel with the squad to the 2027 World Cup in Australia. It’s early days, but a lot can be read into the recent announcements, and the fact that so many players are on the Bok radar.

The topline is that the era of experimentation is far from over. We can expect more rotation over the next 13 matches and a lengthy list of players to rival the 50-strong contingent of 2024. More specifically, we can expect Erasmus to tinker with his combinations and explore his options across the various age profiles, in an attempt to strike the necessary balance between youth and experience. When one considers all the players who have been invited to the two alignment camps in March, according to their position in the depth chart as well as their age profile, some interesting patterns begin to emerge.

At a glance, it’s obvious that the bulk of the squad that won the 2019 and 2023 World Cups is ageing. As many as 13 in the chart above are 33 or older, and will be 35 or older by the time the 2027 World Cup kicks off.

While experience has proved essential at the past two global tournaments, so has the balance between older and younger players. Erasmus can take some of these senior statesmen to Australia, but not all of them – and knowing that, he will have to address the imbalance in the wider squad sooner rather than later.

While most of ‘the old guard’ proved their worth in 2024, some are likely to be phased out in 2025. Faf de Klerk didn’t feature for the side beyond the Ireland series last season, while Trevor Nyakane played one Test all year. Willie le Roux, Makazole Mapimpi and Vincent Koch have been fantastic servants for South African rugby over the years, and could do a job for the Boks in 2025, but all three be 37 or older by 2027.

In 2024, Erasmus rotated his pack and gave younger and less experienced forwards a chance to grow at the highest level – with loosehead prop Gerhard Steenekamp and back row Elrigh Louw taking that chance to become regulars in the matchday 23.

Fortunately, as the orange and yellow blocks in the chart indicate, the Boks will have plenty of experience in reserve, regardless of how many old guard players fall by the wayside. It’s rather the younger players, indicated in green, who need further development.

In 2024, Erasmus rotated his pack and gave younger and less experienced forwards a chance to grow at the highest level – with loosehead prop Gerhard Steenekamp and back row Elrigh Louw taking that chance to become regulars in the matchday 23.

Most of those players are back in the mix ahead of the 2025 season, and while there is certainly room for improvement, the depth chart in the tight five is looking a lot healthier than before.

Stormers tighthead prop Neethling Fouché and Lions behemoth Asenathi Ntlabakanye are expected to feature at some point this season, and provide more options for South Africa at No 3. To reiterate, there are no guarantees that Koch, Frans Malherbe and Nyakane will be at the top of their game in 2027.

While Wilco Louw and Thomas du Toit are dominating at club level and are well placed to take the baton from the aforementioned veterans, Erasmus has to plan for a worst-case scenario in which several players retire and a couple more succumb to injury – which is what happened to the Boks in the flyhalf position back in 2022.

Given that the scrum is an essential part of the Bok game plan, Erasmus is unlikely to take any chances. Indeed, one can understand why he is looking at seven tightheads as well as eight hookers ahead of the new Test season.

Overall, Erasmus will be thrilled that so many young players have taken their opportunities in recent seasons. The likes of Jaden Hendrikse (24) and Canan Moodie (22) have already won one World Cup, and could potentially feature at the next three global tournaments.

With regards to the latter position, Bongi Mbonambi could push on to 2027 and play a key role as a hooker and leader, while Malcolm Marx should be in his prime. Johan Grobbelaar, and André-Hugo Venter need more exposure in the lead-up to the next World Cup, as does the versatile front-ranker Jan-Hendrik Wessels.

Overall, Erasmus will be thrilled that so many young players have taken their opportunities in recent seasons. The likes of Jaden Hendrikse (24) and Canan Moodie (22) have already won one World Cup, and could potentially feature at the next three global tournaments.

Nevertheless, it’s interesting to note how many young players are on the selection radar. While the chart above includes a fair chunk of ageing personnel, it’s significant that as many as 27 players are aged 25 or younger.

Focusing on the uncapped contingent, only one player (Fouché) is older than 30, while five are between 26 and 29, and 14 are 25 or younger.

At worst, Erasmus is planning for the long term and preparing the latter group to take the reins after most of the current squad departs after the 2027 World Cup. The younger players in this group might not travel to Australia, but they will be ready to hit the ground running once the new cycle commences in 2028. One suspects that Erasmus has other reasons for bringing these players into the mix at this stage, though. Again, the depth chart with the age profile filter is instructive.

The Boks have enough grizzled veterans and players in their prime to potentially win the next World Cup. Even if five of these players retire or break down over the next two years, it’s clear that South Africa have sufficient experience in reserve.

However, as has been the case since Erasmus took the head coaching job in 2018, the squad will require a steady influx of young talent from season to season, and a fair dose of youthful energy at the 2027 World Cup itself.

In a sense, the coming season will be about developing the latter group of players. The 11 stars who made their debuts in 2024 will need more game time, while the uncapped players who have been part of the system for a year or more – Lions centre Henco van Wyk and Sharks utility back Ethan Hooker are another two who deserve a mention – will also need to be backed.

HOW THE BOKS MIGHT ROTATE THEIR TEAM

It’s an oversimplification to state that the Boks have the resources to field an A or a B team on alternate Saturdays and still expect to win. The fact of the matter is that Erasmus has built a wider squad for all situations, conditions and opposition, and a group that offers depth across the various age profiles. Some players are clearly first-choice, but as we saw across the 2024 season, there are variations of the A and B teams.

Erasmus changed up the A side for the two must-win matches against the All Blacks in South Africa. He picked very different B team combinations for the fixtures against Portugal (in Bloemfontein) and Scotland (in Edinburgh). As the man himself has stated, good luck to opposition coach who tries to predict South Africa’s starting XV, or even the forward-to-back ratio on the much-discussed bench. If anything, the backroom staff will need to work harder than ever to analyse every possible combination and plan for every threat ahead of a clash with the world champions.

The coach proved that a much-changed team can win consistently in 2024, and used as many as 35 players during a successful push for the Rugby Championship title. With more than 80 players invited to then initial alignment camps, it’s fair to expect more of the same in 2025.

The recent confirmation of the Autumn Nations Series fixture list has provided the media and public with a clearer idea about the Boks’ schedule, and with that, a clue as to how the coaches might manage a large and impressive squad over 13 Tests.

After hosting Italy in two matches in early July, the Boks will play a one-off against Georgia. Their Rugby Championship schedule begins with two home Tests against Australia – just days after the conclusion of the British & Irish Lions tour – before ramping up with two massive games in New Zealand.

The Boks will conclude the southern-hemisphere tournament with a double-header against Argentina – one of those games will be staged at Twickenham, South Africa’s home away from home – and finish their season with an epic four-game tour of Europe, which includes fixtures against France, Italy, Ireland and Wales (the latter outside the World Rugby-sanctioned window).

While the Boks make a point of respecting every opponent, it’s highly likely that one or two of the three fixtures against Italy, the one-off against Georgia, possibly one of the games against Argentina and the season finale against an embattled Wales will provide Erasmus with opportunities for rotation and experimentation.

Again, this statement needs to be viewed in the context of the depth at South Africa’s disposal. At this stage, they boast World Cup and Rugby Championship winners who are ranked second- or third-choice in the depth chart.

A strong mix of players should front Italy, as the Boks attempt to begin their season with a bang. Once those results are in the bag, Erasmus will have the freedom to explore alternative combinations, and possibly a couple of new players at this level.

Erasmus has frowned upon the media’s tendency to label his teams ‘A’ or ‘B’, and one can understand why, given that no player wants to be described as second- or third-choice.

And yet, there have been times when a wider squad has reported for duty, with one group focusing on a specific match or series, and the other preparing for a later fixture. This was the case last July, when one set of players concentrating on the two-match series against Ireland, and the other looking ahead to the one-off against Portugal. One squad departed for Australia thereafter, while a group of senior players remained in South Africa ahead of the series against the All Blacks.

The Boks are also searching for answers ahead of an especially significant Rugby Championship tournament. It’s yet another challenge for Erasmus and company, as they look to settle on a combination before facing the All Blacks in New Zealand, and chasing South Africa’s first win at Eden Park in nearly a century.

Are the Boks less of a threat without some of their first-choice players? It’s fair to say that any second-string team that features the likes of Lood de Jager and Damian Willemse – two stalwarts who are set to return to Test action after more than a year on the sideline – as well as André Esterhuizen and Lukhanyo Am is going to be very hard to beat. Add a few exciting youngsters like Cameron Hanekom to the mix, and you have a balanced and ultimately potent combination.

While they’re building for the 2027 World Cup, the Boks are also searching for answers ahead of an especially significant Rugby Championship tournament. It’s yet another challenge for Erasmus and company, as they look to settle on a combination before facing the All Blacks in New Zealand, and chasing South Africa’s first win at Eden Park in nearly a century.

Beyond that, they will be desperate to beat France in a rematch of the 2023 World Cup quarter-final, as well as Ireland in Dublin. The Boks have lost four of their last five matches to Ireland, and haven’t won in Dublin since 2012.

Last year, after Erasmus announced his intention to build for the global tournament in Australia, many critics – including this writer – believed that he was sacrificing short-term results for the prospect of an unprecedented World Cup three-peat.

Talk of developing the game plan – under new attack coach Tony Brown – also tempered expectations, as it was felt that the new structures would take a season or two to reap tangible rewards. And yet, the Boks went on to win 11 of their 13 matches, in spite of Erasmus keeping his promise to experiment and rotate. By all accounts, Brown’s input took the Bok approach to the next level – although some of the management team has said that the team is yet to realise its attacking potential.

With all that in mind, can we expect the Boks to record similar results in 2025? Is it too soon to suggest that the Eden Park curse will be broken, the Dublin bogey will be buried, and that the Boks will build on their impressive streak against France in Paris? Or that the Boks have enough strength in depth to secure those results – and more in-between – and finish the year with a win-record in excess of 80%?

Time will tell, but all things considered, they are ideally placed. One thing’s for certain, the Boks’ campaign will be anything but boring. There was a time when Springbok rugby was predictable, in terms of selection and game plan. Last season turned that perception on its head, and if recent developments are anything to go by, there could be a few more surprises in store for the 2025 season.