Pre-tournament World Cup power rankings
Friday’s 2019 World Cup opener between hosts Japan and unfancied Russia is now less than 24 hours away, so it is time to unveil the first RugbyPass power rankings of the 20 teams contending the tournament.
We will update the rankings after each round of fixtures in the pool stage in order to give a better idea of where all 20 teams currently rank than the standings in each pool alone can provide.
This year’s tournament is widely regarded as one of the most open – if not the most open – World Cups of all-time which adds a number of interesting debates as these teams jockey for spots at the top of the rankings.
For all the talk of how competitive this World Cup is, there are still not too many who dispute that the All Blacks are currently the best all-round team in the world. They have named their team to take on South Africa on Saturday and it is loaded with talent. If they can get over that hurdle, they will be sauntering to a favourable quarter-final for the rest of the group stage.
- SOUTH AFRICA
The resurgence under Rassie Erasmus has picked up speed and the Springboks arrive in Japan in solid form and boasting a squad that has unenviable physical gifts and impressive depth in a number of key positions. Like New Zealand, their entire group stage hinges on their result with the All Blacks this weekend. It’s a winner-takes-all contest for the better seeding in the knockout rounds.
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- ENGLAND
England sneak in here ahead of European rivals Ireland and Wales with it feeling like Eddie Jones and his squad have timed their run very well ahead of the tournament. They had a strong warm-up period, their squad is largely healthy and they have a growing number of players in a genuine ‘world-class’ discussion. If they fire in Japan, they could go all the way.
- IRELAND
Some of the gloss has come off Ireland in 2019 after a stellar year in 2018, although they are still an incredibly formidable side. Fingers have been pointed at the age and durability of some areas of the squad, but they are helped by a relatively straightforward pool. Beat Scotland on Sunday and their path to locking up the top spot in Pool A will be clear.
- WALES
Key injuries in the back row, backs coach Rob Howley’s ignominious return home and some recent losses are hard to expel from the mind when judging Wales’ chances. They should not be underestimated, though, as they are the reigning Grand Slam champions in the Six Nations. Their defence is one of the best in the world and in tight encounters they will be a threat to knock off anyone.
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- AUSTRALIA
The Wallabies’ form has waxed and waned over recent years, although the demolition job they did on the All Blacks in Perth, albeit with New Zealand reduced to 14 men, should not be discounted. Historically, they are a team that has always peaked at World Cups and if they can beat Wales and secure the more favourable quarter-final as group winners, they could pick up momentum heading into a potential semi-final.
- FRANCE
There have been some signs of life in the French team of late and they rank a couple of spots higher now than they would have at the end of the Six Nations earlier this year. Their opener against Argentina on Saturday will be particularly illuminating. Given Les Bleus’ history, though, we probably shouldn’t rule out a full-blown player revolt happening between now and then.
- SCOTLAND
A shaky start to the summer was stabilised with a home win over France and then back-to-back victories against Georgia. Although the threat of Japan is very real in Pool A, Scotland are still favourites to make it out alongside Ireland. That said, win that opening game against Ireland on Sunday and the complexion of Pool A changes considerably.
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- ARGENTINA
Unfortunately for Mario Ledesma, the form of the Jaguares in Super Rugby simply hasn’t translated onto the international stage. He will be hoping that their tune-up match against Randwick, which saw them triumph 74-0, is enough to put some confidence into Los Pumas and propel them into their opener against France. Lose that and they will need to pull off a significant upset against England.
- JAPAN
The hosts break into the tier one monopoly on top ten positions thanks to some improving depth in the back row, half-backs and wings, home advantage and a strong Pacific Nations Cup earlier this year. They looked a better side than Fiji in that tournament and with the Brave Blossoms facing Scotland in the final pool match, with Gregor Townsend’s side coming off a short turnaround, don’t rule them out from making the quarter-finals.
- FIJI
Fiji are dangerous. Really dangerous. That said, they are in a tough pool with Australia and Wales and although they are capable of beating both of those teams on their day, they will need a number of things to go their way if they are to upset the odds. Their opener against Australia will provide clarity on where their set-piece, kicking game and defence all are.
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- ITALY
A rather disappointing preparation period for the Azzurri who looked like they will struggle in Pool B, especially alongside two sides as formidable as New Zealand and South Africa. A more realistic goal for Conor O’Shea’s side is to be competitive with those two giants and lock up third spot, ensuring automatic qualification for the 2023 World Cup.
- GEORGIA
Stuck with Australia, Wales and Fiji in Pool D, Georgia are going to have their work cut out over the next few weeks. Their scrum is undeniably ruthless, although their recent losses to Scotland show that their overall game and squad depth isn’t quite there at the moment to go toe-to-toe with the tier one nations.
- SAMOA
There were some encouraging signs of life for Samoa in their 34-15 loss to Australia recently, although they are no longer the dangerous team that is consistently capable of springing upsets that they were at previous World Cups. It’s an older group of players and the production line of fresh talent coming into the squad seems to have dried up of late.
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- USA
A pretty balanced group for the Eagles, who had the edge over local rivals Canada prior to heading out to the tournament. The benefits of the MLR are beginning to show as the USA are developing some competitive position battles in their squad. They are unlikely to trouble England, France and Argentina, but the future is beginning to look brighter for Gary Gold’s side.
- TONGA
They have similar problems to Samoa, with ageing players in some key positions and a lack of fresh blood to inject into the mix. Like the USA, they aren’t going to threaten qualification for the quarter-finals, although the match between those two nations should be compelling in its own right.
- URUGUAY
A loss to Spain this summer reignited the furore over the European nation’s non-appearance in Japan, although Los Teros picked up some momentum against three South American select sides over the last month or so. They have some talented individuals, though it will be tough for them to physically live with Wales, Australia, Georgia and Fiji over the next few weeks. Whatever points they can grab will be a bonus.
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- NAMIBIA
We have Namibia just edging out Canada at the moment, thanks to not much more than gut-feel for the strength of the two squads although their match in Pool B could go either way. Namibia get the first shot to show where they are when they take on Italy on Sunday.
- CANADA
Canada’s results over the last cycle suggest they are underperforming. There is potential for them to be much better than they currently are and hopefully Toronto Arrows’ inclusion in the MLR will help them achieve that in the long-term.
- RUSSIA
The comprehensive beating that Russia took at the hands of Italy last month is representative of where they are right now. They will do well to stay within 40 points of Japan in Tokyo on Friday and they will target being competitive with Samoa as their best shot of an unlikely upset at this year’s tournament.
WATCH: The trailer for the RugbyPass behind the scenes documentary on Tonga’s preparations for the World Cup
Comments on RugbyPass
Like others, I am not seeing the connection between this edition of the Crusaders and the All Blacks future prospects under Razor. I think the analysis of the Crusaders attack recently is helpful because Razor and his coaching team used to be able to slot new guys in to their systems and see them succeed. Several of Razor’s coaches are still there so it would be surprising if the current attack and set piece has been overhauled to a great extent - but based on that analysis, it may have been. Whether it is too many new guys due to injuries or retirement or a failure of current Crusaders systems is the main question to be answered imo. It doesn’t seem relevant for the ABs.
3 Go to commentsharry potter is set in stone. he creates stability and finishes well. exactly what schmidt likes. he’s the ben smith of australian rugby. i think it could quite easily be potter toole and kellaway for the foreseeable future.
5 Go to commentsThis is short sighted from Clayton if you ask me, smacks of too much preseason planning and no adaptability. What if DMac is out for a must win match, are they still only going to bring their best first five and playmaker on late in the game? Trusting the game to someone who wasn’t even part of planning (they would have had Trask pinned in as Jacomb preseason). Perhaps if the Crusaders were better they would not have done this, but either way imo you take this opportunity to play a guy you might need starting in a final rather than having their 12th game getting comfortable coming off the bench.
1 Go to commentsThanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.
21 Go to commentsWhat a load of bollocks. The author has forgotten to mention the fact that the Crusaders have a huge injury toll with top world class players out. Not to mention the fact that they are obviously in a transition period. No this will not spark a slow death for NZ rugby, but it does mean there will be a new Super Rugby champion. Anyone who knows anything about NZ rugby knows that there is some serious talent here, it just isn’t all at the Crusaders.
3 Go to commentsI wouldn’t spend the time on Nawaqanitawase! No point in having him filling in a jersey when he’s committed to leave Union. Give the jersey to a young prospect who will be here in the future.
5 Go to commentsIt was a pleasure to watch those guys playing with such confidence. That trio can all be infuriating for different reasons and I can see why Jones might have decided against them. No way to justify leaving Ikitau out though. Jorgensen and him were both scheduled to return at the same time. Only one of them plays for Randwick and has a dad who is great mates with the national coach though.
53 Go to commentsBrayden Iose and Peter Lakai are very exciting Super Rugby players but are too short and too light to ever be a Test 8 vs South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, Lakai could potentially be a Test player at 7 if he is allowed to focus on 7 for Hurricanes.
7 Go to commentsPencils “Thomas du Toit” into possible 2027 Bok squad.
1 Go to commentsDon’t see why Harrison makes the bench. Jones can play at 10 if needed, and there is a good case for starting her there to begin with if testing combinations. That would leave room for Sing on the bench
1 Go to commentsWhat a load of old bull!
1 Go to commentsOf the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.
29 Go to commentsIrish Rugby CEO be texting Andy Farrell “Andy, i found our next Kiwi Irishman”
5 Go to commentsI certainly don’t miss drinking beers at 8am in the morning watching rugby games being played in NZ.
1 Go to commentsThis looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
1 Go to commentsVery unlikely the Bulls will beat Leinster in Dublin. It would be different in Pretoria.
1 Go to commentsI think it is a dangerous path to go down to ban a player for the same period that a player they injured takes to recover. Players would be afraid to tackle anyone. I once tackled my best friend at school in a practice match and sprained his ankle. I paid for it by having to play fly-half instead of full-back for the rest of that season’s fixtures.
5 Go to commentsJust such a genuine good bloke…and probably the best all round player in his generation. Good guys do come first sometimes and he handled the W.Cup loss with great attitude.
2 Go to commentsWord in France is that he’s on the radar of a few Top14 clubs.
5 Go to commentsGet blocking Travis, this guy has styles and he’s gonna make a swift impact…!
1 Go to comments