Why it doesn't matter who wins the Six Nations
England had put 50 points on France. Ireland had captured a second consecutive title. Scotland hadn’t won a game and took home the Wooden Spoon. It was the 2015 Six Nations.
Roughly six months later, that same England team failed to get out of their pool as the host country in the World Cup, losing to Wales and Australia. Ireland were ambushed by a rampant Argentina in a quarterfinal and Scotland, the side who couldn’t beat Italy, pushed the world number two Australian side to the brink of elimination in theirs and should’ve progressed to the semifinals if not for a refereeing blunder.
In 2011, England took home the Six Nations title but were left out at the quarterfinal stage, going down to that years’ runners-up France. Fourth-placed Wales went all the way to a semi-final, falling short to France who were eventual finalists.
In 2007, third-placed England were the best performing Northern Hemisphere side at that year’s World Cup, making the final on their quest to claim back-to-back World Cups.
It seems that Six Nations form can be thrown out the window when it comes to predicting how the Northern Hemisphere teams will fare at the Rugby World Cup.
It can be a ‘rough guide’ at best, and you have to take into consideration form over the previous couple of years. From this, we already know three teams, England, Ireland, and now Wales, are genuine contenders.
Whilst Scotland is capable of beating anyone on their day, they are more ‘spoilers’ at this point. They can ruin someone’s tournament by winning a knockout game but are they able to string three wins in a row together against Tier 1 competition? They have not done that once in 42 games over this World Cup cycle.
France has to be in the same category as Scotland at this stage, although you can never write them off. In the past, they haven’t been able to capitalise on big upset wins over the All Blacks to actually win the World Cup, still playing a ‘spoiler’ role.
Wales will now draw much attention to themselves after toppling England and completing a 12th-straight win, their best-ever run, but their chances of winning the World Cup are no better or no worse whether they win the Grand Slam or not.
Every Northern Hemisphere nation has to navigate the remainder of the club season and sit through a full off-season break over the summer and find a way to reach their ‘peak’ shortly after coming back from holiday-mode.
Many of the teams may be in top physical shape after pre-season conditioning and recovery but will be short on match fitness and continuity. There will be a couple of warm-up games where no one wants injuries but it will be the only hit-outs they get to find form.
From there they will be ‘dropped cold’ into a six-week tournament while the Southern counterparts will arrive at the tail-end of their season, with casualty wards of already injured players but battle-hardened teams.
The All Blacks have, after years of tinkering and failed campaigns, learned how to approach a World Cup year and enter the tournament in mid-September every four years in the ideal position to win it.
The meticulous planning begins at the start of the four-year cycle with squad building over the first three, before whittling down to a core squad for the final year. Every team does this, but it is the final run-in where the All Blacks have figured out what works best for them, finding the right balance of resting players and tailoring training for peak performance in October.
Even in pool play in 2015, Hansen admitted using watered-down game plans to hold some cards close to his chest. There was talk of deliberate over-training during pool play, playing fatigued, in order to ‘take the resistance off’ and explode through the rest of the knockout play.
The focus was firmly on, and planned for, peaking when it mattered. There was criticism of the team as they weren’t ‘winning by enough’, like in 2007 when they pasted Italy, Portugal and Romania but then failed to reach the intensity required against a Tier 1 nation in the quarterfinals.
It turned out they had a plan after all and it worked out for the second time in 2015.
For the Northern Hemisphere teams, finding the ultimate ‘launch’ into the World Cup after a summer break may not have been figured out yet. The 2015 result showed that they might need to change their approach. Some teams will suffer from a lack of depth and just horrid luck, but others may not enter with their best form trying to restart everything from square one in the season.
While the Six Nations is an esteemed prize in its own right, it will have little bearing in Japan. How they manage their off-season and plan the last moments before the storm is far more important than who takes home Six Nations glory in a few weeks when it comes to winning the Rugby World Cup.
Comments on RugbyPass
It was a pleasure to watch those guys playing with such confidence. That trio can all be infuriating for different reasons and I can see why Jones might have decided against them. No way to justify leaving Ikitau out though. Jorgensen and him were both scheduled to return at the same time. Only one of them plays for Randwick and has a dad who is great mates with the national coach though.
53 Go to commentsBrayden Iose and Peter Lakai are very exciting Super Rugby players but are too short and too light to ever be a Test 8 vs South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, Lakai could potentially be a Test player at 7 if he is allowed to focus on 7 for Hurricanes.
5 Go to commentsPencils “Thomas du Toit” into possible 2027 Bok squad.
1 Go to commentsDon’t see why Harrison makes the bench. Jones can play at 10 if needed, and there is a good case for starting her there to begin with if testing combinations. That would leave room for Sing on the bench
1 Go to commentsWhat a load of old bull!
1 Go to commentsOf the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.
29 Go to commentsIrish Rugby CEO be texting Andy Farrell “Andy, i found our next Kiwi Irishman”
5 Go to commentsI certainly don’t miss drinking beers at 8am in the morning watching rugby games being played in NZ.
1 Go to commentsThis looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
1 Go to commentsVery unlikely the Bulls will beat Leinster in Dublin. It would be different in Pretoria.
1 Go to commentsI think it is a dangerous path to go down to ban a player for the same period that a player they injured takes to recover. Players would be afraid to tackle anyone. I once tackled my best friend at school in a practice match and sprained his ankle. I paid for it by having to play fly-half instead of full-back for the rest of that season’s fixtures.
5 Go to commentsJust such a genuine good bloke…and probably the best all round player in his generation. Good guys do come first sometimes and he handled the W.Cup loss with great attitude.
2 Go to commentsWord in France is that he’s on the radar of a few Top14 clubs.
5 Go to commentsGet blocking Travis, this guy has styles and he’s gonna make a swift impact…!
1 Go to commentsWhat remorse? She claimed that her dangerous tackle wasn’t worthy of a red! She should be compensating the injured player for loss of earnings at the minimum. Her ban should include the recovery time of the injured player as well as the paltry 3 match ban.
5 Go to commentsArdie is a legend. Finished and klaar. Two things: “Yeah, yeah, I have had a few conversations with Razor just around feedback on my game and what I am doing well, what I need to improve on or work-ons. It’s kind of been minimal, mate, but it’s all that I need over here in terms of how to be better, how to get better and what I am doing well.” I hope he’s downplaying it - and that it’s not that “minimal”. The amount of communication and behind the scenes preparation the Bok coaches put into players - Rassie and co would be all over Ardie and being clear on what is expected of him. This stands out for me as something teams should really be looking at in terms of the boks success from a coaching point of view. And was surprised by the comment - “minimal”. In terms of the “debate” around Ireland and South Africa. Nice one Ardie. Indeed. There’s no debate.
2 Go to commentsThere’s a bit of depth there but realistically Australian players have a long way to go to now catch up. The game is moving on fast and Australia are falling behind. Australian sides still don’t priories the breakdown like they should, it’s a non-negotiable if you want to compete on the international stage. That goes for forwards and backs. The Australian team could have a back row that could make a difference but the problem is they don’t have a tight five that can do the business. Tupou is limited in defence, overweight and unfit and the locks are a long way from international standard. Frost is soft and Salakai-Loto is too small so that means they need a Valentini at 8 who has to do the hard graft so limits the effectiveness of the backrow. Schmidt really needs to get a hard working, tough tight 5 if he wants to get this team firing.
3 Go to commentsSorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
2 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to comments