What history tells us about caps at a Rugby World Cup
In a previous article, the idea of the competition between form and experience leading into the Rugby World Cup was discussed, and how caps may be misleading.
Out of the top six sides in the world rankings, arguably the form side in the world, South Africa, have the fewest caps, with 34 on average. England and Wales, who are arguably the other two form teams, also only average 35 caps.
Meanwhile, the weakest of the six over the past four years, Australia, have the most caps, with 45 on average.
This throws into question the notion that caps will generate success.
However, a graph on the website dementedmole.com provides some insight into the caps of each RWC winning side this century and how that provides some indication as to what may transpire over the coming months.
England squad in their Rugby World Cup caps #RWC2019 pic.twitter.com/jdSeVDy0AE
— Alex Spink (@alexspinksport) September 16, 2019
What is clear is that the All Blacks in 2015 had significantly more caps on average than any other winning team, averaging 48 per player (rounded to the nearest whole number).
The tournament in England four years ago was nothing more than a crowning procession for them, with only the Springboks truly troubling them in the semi-final.
Likewise, in 2003 and 2011, England had 35 caps on average and the All Blacks had 37 caps on average.
These numbers are still high by comparision to the contenders for this World Cup, although England’s number may be misleading as there are more tests these days, meaning more caps. This is illustrated by the fact that Jason Leonard was the most capped player ever in 2003 with 118 test caps for England and the British and Irish Lions and only the third centurion in the game. Since then, there have been 52 players to earn 100 caps, with Richie McCaw earning as many as 148.
South Africa will be hoping experience doesn't hold sway at the Rugby World Cup as their caps list trails some key rivals https://t.co/e0ehykP2VB
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) September 10, 2019
What is most interesting is that the Springboks only averaged 26 caps in 2007, far fewer than any team in the top six currently. Jake White’s team that year were not the favourites going into the World Cup, neither were runners-up England. In that sense, 2007 was surely the most open RWC this century, and perhaps provides a sign as to what may happen this year.
This year’s showcase in Japan has been tipped by many as the hardest World Cup to call, and therefore the most similar to 2007.
Caps seem to be less important when there is more competition, and Rassie Erasmus, Warren Gatland and Eddie Jones can use South Africa’s 2007 campaign as inspiration this year.
However, the other World Cups may not have been as competitive simply because the winners had more experience, as there seems to be a correlation between how competitive a World Cup is, and how experienced the winners were.
England probably entered the 2003 and New Zealand the 2011 World Cups as favourites, which goes to suggest that caps are integral to success. These cap hauls seem to be comparable to the All Blacks’ average of 39 and Ireland’s of 37 this year, which bodes well for both nations.
But despite being the favourites to lift the Webb Ellis Cup this time last year, the All Blacks and Ireland have hit a bit of a slump since then. The reigning world champions have only won two of their last five matches, while Ireland suffered humbling defeats to both England and Wales in the Six Nations this year.
Steve Hansen and Joe Schmidt can still take solace in the fact that they have built experienced teams, which could potentially pay off come November 2nd in Yokohama.
The Wallabies are the exception here, as, although they have an extremely experienced squad, Michael Cheika has perhaps squandered some form players who don’t have many caps, for those who are experienced but may not be in their prime.
While Australia can never be written off when it comes to the RWC, the other five teams in the top six all are genuine candidates to win, and have all been tipped at various points to come away victorious. In a tournament that looks to be so competitive, each team can draw inspiration from different winners over the years.
Comments on RugbyPass
Things I want to pay attention to this series. 1) Nothing against the other teams in 6 nations, but apart from Irelands loss to england, I dont feel they got tested, So I think this might be tight. 2) Rassie wants to build depth, and would rather do it before a world cup, but I am sure deep inside, he will be reminded that we have not beaten Ireland in years. 3) Will our new coaches plans be sound abd organised in time for the Ireland series? Remember our warm ups might only see our second or third string players available (When are we going to have one universal calander year?) 4) I see Ireland have moved on from Sexton, but what will Farrels plans be for SA? I am sure he will go for a full strength squad. 5) I think the test for the springboks will be the Durban game, it will be in winter, so not too hot for the Irish,no altitude, and it rains allot, might remind them of home. Loftus, if the springboks play the right game, I feel altitude like with most games before, can cause some challanges. 6) Off topic, but who is both Anxious and excited about what the Abs are coming with? A whole new coaching team and different style of play.
113 Go to commentsMost underrated player in world rugby.
1 Go to commentsHow many fans will travel to Qatar to watch these games ? because if they dont, it will be played in front of a few disinterested unknowledgeable Qataris and then just becomes media ‘content’. Thats what Test rugby will be reduced to.
1 Go to commentsSo as long as the playmaker still has the ball IN his hands, its OK. Otherwise the timing is wrong and he’s a liability. No grey line there. Thats the rule he is advocating ? Got it.
3 Go to commentsWrite them off at your peril
8 Go to commentsJust fantastic that the professional game is finally being taken to the Pacific islands. Not before time. It justifies the mere existence of Moana as a club, hopefully they can start to get some positive results too. Check out the sheer joy of the crowds in Fiji and the buzz that having a home team creates. Tonga always had (has ?) issues with their ground not complying with International rugby standards, which NZ always used as an excuse for many years not bringing the All Blacks over. Hopefully this match is the first of many. Would be great to see some tourism grow on the back of it. I once went to the Cook Islands Sevens in Rarotonga - tiny island nation but man did they turn it on. Tonga and Samoa will too given half a chance.
1 Go to commentsQuite right. Punish the time wasters. Its BS these time delays for non-injuries. The Boks have been using it for years now to slow down opposition and now its a scourge on the game. Put players like DeGroot on the sideline and restart play immediately. Watch how 5-6 min to fix your boots quickly becomes 1-2 minutes. Better still how about some personal professional management and you check the conditions/turf beforehand and get yourself better prepared. It might even help your team.
1 Go to commentsWhat drivel. Rugby as a contact sport should not be further diminished by crying over legal hard tackles. Take on the line? Be ready to take the hit. This is PC nonsense.
3 Go to commentsGregor Paul is going to be proved totally wrong. The Crusaders will get in the top 8 and are capable of winning this comp. The return of magnificent captain and player Scott Barrett on Friday was huge. There are a number of players returning and Ethan Blackadder showed huge progression in only his third game back. Christian Lio-Willie has added a new dimension , these two’s combination with Cullen Grace was fantastic. This builds depth when you have outstanding players like Tom Christie and Dom Gardiner also available. The tight five improved ten fold and this is with Tamaiti Williams and Codie Taylor being back.Others are set to return. Johnny McNicoll on his return home has been a revelation. Paul can dismiss Fridays win by the Crusaders as much as he likes and he will prove very popular in this country in doing so. But he will be proved wrong , Rob Penney and his coaching team will have the last laugh.
8 Go to commentsI haven’t seen or heard to many whinging about Finau quite the opposite. The TMO’s have reviewed each time and taken no action, so if they have now been alerted it’s not from people whinging The player comes flying out of the line and launches himself at the attacker so it is probably ruled as a committed tackle, but at what point does it move to tackling a player without the ball Time will tell
3 Go to commentsThis cracked media record of aligning success or failure on head coaches is remarkable. Using the crusaders past history as an example, a more sensible observation and analysis could be that the recent head coaches had inherited a extremely successful combination of players linked to their traditional historical support of the Canterbury people. That period ended this year when the new coach was introduced to virtually a new team. And in a year where other franchises have grown much stronger than their respective past, it was always an anticipated reality that the coach and his new crusader team were up against it. Therefore, I humbly believe that unlike some commentators present, I laud coach Penny and the team for their efforts to date and I am sure given another term and with Canterbury behind them they will be riding high once more. Strange all this coming from me who lives in Taupo and a one eyed chiefs supporter. Can't wait for all future chiefs and crusader games!
8 Go to commentsGrt bench player..keep him there..
3 Go to commentsA Springbok 2-0 win: haha told you we were champions now shut up An Irish 2-0 win: the referee was under orders from world rugby to cheat us but luckily we don’t care because this is part of Rassie’s grand world Cup plan.
113 Go to commentsI hope they didn’t pay Jones fee?
2 Go to commentsTo be fair, the teams he's had to put out are reminiscent of those available to Gatland during his horrible run at the Chiefs in late 2020. Anyway, he's only got a two year contract and Wellingtonian Tamati Ellison will be ready by then, as will a lot of talented youngsters (like the Chiefs Gatland blooded). The Crusaders are planning for the long term.
8 Go to commentsGreat to see more community spending leading to higher participation in the community. It's a long road but that's a good first step.
2 Go to commentsPoetic justice for trying to sell him to Australia as another kiwi saviour coach, not ! Deans was just as bad actually but McCaw and Carter covered up for him. That’s why they didn’t want him as All Black coach, even after Graeme Henry’s bumbling effort in 2007.
8 Go to commentsSACK HIM !
8 Go to commentsSafas are so triggered by Ireland. 3 consecutive losses, incl RWC. 8 losses out of last 12 Tests. Always excuses, of course, with Bok fans. Now Rassie with his “88%” nonsense, the Claytons Excuse is an embarrassment to Bok teams of the past when every test mattered. Their fickle mojo will be on edge for the Ireland tour. Have the referees been appointed yet ? They will need security. Have WR laid out strict guidelines for TMO’s and replays on the stadium screens ? Will the constant stoppages from Bok forwards for cramps and bootlaces be tolerated ? We’re not talking a dominant Springbok team here, they won the LOTTO Cup and they know it whether they admit it or not. The Disney doco has their fans positively fermenting internally, its going to be a nasty hangover if they get beaten on home soil. What will the excuses be then……
113 Go to commentsGreat role model.
2 Go to comments