Top spot on the line in the World Rugby Rankings

Some unbelievable results would have to happen in the opening round of The Rugby Championship, but three different teams – South Africa, New Zealand or Ireland – could, in theory, end this weekend top of the World Rugby Rankings.

Despite having their lead cut to 0.72 points by New Zealand, Rassie Erasmus’ all-conquering side know that it they get the job done against Australia in Johannesburg this Saturday, they will continue to look down at the rest, regardless of what happens when the All Blacks meet Argentina in Cordoba later in the day.

Last year’s Rugby Championship winners gained no additional points for the double victory over Italy nor the win over Georgia in July, so their rating has remained static this year at 92.78 points. Similarly, victory over Australia will come with no reward due to home advantage and the fact that five places and just over 10 points separate the teams in the rankings.

By contrast, New Zealand will be able to improve their rating – but not by enough to overhaul the Springboks at the top. A win by more than 15 points would boost the All Blacks’ rating by 0.45 points, to 92.51, still leaving them 0.27 points adrift of their arch rivals.

New Zealand have never lost to Argentina in Argentina, but were held to a 21-21 draw when they visited there in 1985.

A repeat of that outcome will still be good enough for New Zealand to end South Africa’s nine-month unbroken reign at number one if the Springboks suffer a first defeat in five matches at the hands of the Wallabies, who will travel to Emirates Airline Park buoyed by their peformance in the recent series against the British and Irish Lions.

If South Africa vs Australia ends in a draw, New Zealand will need to win to become No.1.

A shocking Springboks loss by more than 15 points will lead to them falling two places to third, with Ireland moving up to second and New Zealand up to first if they avoid defeat this weekend.

Meanwhile, Ireland have an outside chance of returning to first place in the rankings for the first time since last November, but both South Africa and New Zealand will have to be beaten by more than 15 points for that to happen.

With the draw for the 2027 Rugby World Cup taking place later this year, The Rugby Championship takes on added importance, especially for teams like Australia and Argentina, who are vying to be in the first pot of seeds, as the teams ranked one to six.

The sixth-placed Wallabies currently have a very slim cushion over Argentina (0.03), but all that could change this weekend.

Argentina will oust Australia from sixth place if they win and the Wallabies fail to end their 14-year barren spell on South African soil.

An emphatic win by more than 15 points will still lead to Argentina swapping places with Australia even if the Wallabies came home from South Africa triumphant – as long as Australia’s winning margin is fewer than 16 points.