Tonight's victor could take a massive advantage into the Rugby World Cup
The All Blacks and the Springboks will play each other twice – maybe even three times – in 2019, and each match between the sides will increase in importance.
After disposing of Argentina and Australia, the two South Hemisphere sides will meet in Wellington tonight in a game which will likely decide 2019’s abridged Rugby Championship.
On the 21st of September, the rivals will square off again in their first match of the World Cup. Depending on how things go, New Zealand and South Africa could then meet in the tournament final, six weeks later.
Steve Hansen has understandably said that the importance of each result grows this year until New Zealand arrive at the World Cup. Whilst it would be nice to secure the Rugby Championship this weekend, there are still three matches to go before the World Cup kicks off.
Banking the Bledisloe Cup and the Rugby Championship will be of little consolation if New Zealand do not return from the World Cup with the trophy in hand, which is why every match is effectively a warm-up for the next. Until the World Cup knockouts arrive, of course.
Winning the World Cup will always be the primary goal for the All Blacks – but the path to victory can be significantly altered depending on how results go during the pool stages of the tournament.
Avoiding Ireland at World Cup could be key
The winners of Pool B play the runners up of Pool A, whilst the winners of Pool A play the runners up of Pool B. Ireland, Scotland, Samoa and Japan will all be eying up a qualifying position from Pool A, but if everything goes as should be expected, then Ireland will come out as top seeds with Scotland trailing not far behind.
Whilst neither of those teams are easy beats, only Ireland have tasted success against the All Blacks. Scotland came close in the two sides’ encounter at the end of 2018, almost scoring on the stroke of halftime, but Ireland have won two of their three most recent clashes.
Purely from an outcome-based approach, the All Blacks will be keen to avoid Ireland at the quarter-finals stage (even though Ireland have never progressed past the quarter-finals) so will be aiming to top their pool.
That being said, a second-place finish wouldn’t be the end of the world. Argentina finished second to New Zealand in their pool at 2015 World Cup and still made it to the semi-finals. In 2011, New Zealand were the only pool winner to progress to the semi-finals, while finalists France started out in the same pool as the All Blacks, who won the tournament. 2007’s semi-finals included two pool champions and two pool runner-ups.
Still, we are yet to see a world champion emerge who has dropped a match during the tournament – so both New Zealand and South Africa will be pushing hard come the World Cup pool stages.
Which brings us to this weekend’s match.
Close to full strength line-up – but not quite
Tonight we get to see a vastly changed team from the one that Steve Hansen rolled out against the Pumas. Brodie Retallick, Ben Smith and Beauden Barrett are the only players retained in the starting XV from last weekend’s match. First-choice players Joe Moody, Owen Franks, Sam Whitelock, Kieran Read, Sonny Bill Williams and Rieko Ioane have slotted back into the side whilst Codie Taylor, TJ Perenara and Jack Goodhue are all fairly like-for-like replacements for the men whose spots they’ve taken.
Whether the selectors targeted this game as an opportunity to roll out what would be close to their top side is uncertain. Perhaps that’s simply the way the cards have fallen due to the forced absence of the Crusaders players from last weekend’s fixture.
The All Blacks squad will be trimmed down to 34 players for the Bledisloe series, which means that a number of men are playing for spots this weekend – while others probably already had their last chance in Argentina. Certain All Blacks will be playing for a place in the squad, which will make for an absolutely thrilling match.
Lack of dominance makes this one a must-win
Perhaps Steve Hansen doesn’t see this match as a must-win, but a certain amount of confidence will be gained for the World Cup re-match by whichever team emerges victorious tonight.
New Zealand hasn’t always performed so well in the build up to World Cups. In 2015, the Wallabies tipped over the All Blacks 27-19 in Sydney. Similarly, the All Blacks fell to both the Springboks and the Wallabies away from home in 2011.
The scenarios in those two seasons were a little bit different, however. The All Blacks have had a huge stranglehold on the Wallabies for a number of years now. It’s been 17 years since the Wallabies last held the Bledisloe Cup, which means that Australia haven’t come out of year with a positive win ratio over New Zealand in the same period of time. Slipping up to the Wallabies in 2015, therefore, was an anomaly. The All Blacks also had the opportunity to avenge that loss just a week later, which they duly did, accounting for the Wallabies 41-13.
Similarly, in 2011 the losses to South Africa and Australia didn’t hit quite as hard because those fixtures had both been away from home. The All Blacks didn’t send their full-strength side to Port Elizabeth so the 18-5 loss wasn’t a horrible outcome (especially as the All Blacks thrashed the Springboks 40-7 in the earlier fixture). The loss to Australia was a bit more of kick in the teeth, but the All Black’s persistent dominance over the Wallabies meant it wasn’t the end of the world.
In 2019, however, things have changed. The All Blacks and the Springboks have fought out three very close matches in the last three encounters. In the second fixture of 2017, New Zealand triumphed by just one point in Cape Town. Last year, the away teams emerged victorious in both games, with three-point margins in both encounters. New Zealand have had no dominance over South Africa in the last few meetings, which means that tonight’s match counts for everything.
All on the line in Wellington tonight
If the Springboks lose by a close margin, it probably won’t significantly harm their World Cup preparations. After all, the match is being played in New Zealand. If the Springboks do somehow triumph, however, then they will take a massive mental advantage into the World Cup, knowing that they’ve had the rub over New Zealand in the last two years – even away from home.
Losing against the Springboks won’t be the end of the world for New Zealand; there are plenty of more important fish to fry this year. The winner of tonight’s game, however, will take an advantage into the World Cup – even if it is a small one. Steve Hansen has resisted in putting out a full-strength team – though it’s not far off it – only time will tell whether the right decision has been made.
Comments on RugbyPass
Brayden Iose and Peter Lakai are very exciting Super Rugby players but are too short and too light to ever be a Test 8 vs South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, Lakai could potentially be a Test player at 7 if he is allowed to focus on 7 for Hurricanes.
5 Go to commentsPencils “Thomas du Toit” into possible 2027 Bok squad.
1 Go to commentsDon’t see why Harrison makes the bench. Jones can play at 10 if needed, and there is a good case for starting her there to begin with if testing combinations. That would leave room for Sing on the bench
1 Go to commentsWhat a load of old bull!
1 Go to commentsOf the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.
27 Go to commentsIrish Rugby CEO be texting Andy Farrell “Andy, i found our next Kiwi Irishman”
5 Go to commentsI certainly don’t miss drinking beers at 8am in the morning watching rugby games being played in NZ.
1 Go to commentsThis looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
1 Go to commentsVery unlikely the Bulls will beat Leinster in Dublin. It would be different in Pretoria.
1 Go to commentsI think it is a dangerous path to go down to ban a player for the same period that a player they injured takes to recover. Players would be afraid to tackle anyone. I once tackled my best friend at school in a practice match and sprained his ankle. I paid for it by having to play fly-half instead of full-back for the rest of that season’s fixtures.
5 Go to commentsJust such a genuine good bloke…and probably the best all round player in his generation. Good guys do come first sometimes and he handled the W.Cup loss with great attitude.
2 Go to commentsWord in France is that he’s on the radar of a few Top14 clubs.
5 Go to commentsGet blocking Travis, this guy has styles and he’s gonna make a swift impact…!
1 Go to commentsWhat remorse? She claimed that her dangerous tackle wasn’t worthy of a red! She should be compensating the injured player for loss of earnings at the minimum. Her ban should include the recovery time of the injured player as well as the paltry 3 match ban.
5 Go to commentsArdie is a legend. Finished and klaar. Two things: “Yeah, yeah, I have had a few conversations with Razor just around feedback on my game and what I am doing well, what I need to improve on or work-ons. It’s kind of been minimal, mate, but it’s all that I need over here in terms of how to be better, how to get better and what I am doing well.” I hope he’s downplaying it - and that it’s not that “minimal”. The amount of communication and behind the scenes preparation the Bok coaches put into players - Rassie and co would be all over Ardie and being clear on what is expected of him. This stands out for me as something teams should really be looking at in terms of the boks success from a coaching point of view. And was surprised by the comment - “minimal”. In terms of the “debate” around Ireland and South Africa. Nice one Ardie. Indeed. There’s no debate.
2 Go to commentsThere’s a bit of depth there but realistically Australian players have a long way to go to now catch up. The game is moving on fast and Australia are falling behind. Australian sides still don’t priories the breakdown like they should, it’s a non-negotiable if you want to compete on the international stage. That goes for forwards and backs. The Australian team could have a back row that could make a difference but the problem is they don’t have a tight five that can do the business. Tupou is limited in defence, overweight and unfit and the locks are a long way from international standard. Frost is soft and Salakai-Loto is too small so that means they need a Valentini at 8 who has to do the hard graft so limits the effectiveness of the backrow. Schmidt really needs to get a hard working, tough tight 5 if he wants to get this team firing.
3 Go to commentsSorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
2 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to commentsSimple reason for wanting him back. Robertson wants him as captain. Otherwise he wouldn’t be bothering chasing him. Not enough reason to come back just to mentor.
10 Go to comments