There won't be fairytales for the Wallabies this year against the Springboks
The Wallabies were in similar trying circumstances last year when South Africa arrived to play their Rugby Championship fixtures, but this year will unlikely see a fairytale sweep.
They weren’t given much hope of beating the World Cup winning Springboks sitting on a three match losing skid, who were themselves riding a four test winning streak after the Lions series and handling the Pumas in their backyard.
However, the Wallabies loss to the All Blacks out West in Perth marked the return of dynamic midfielder Samu Kerevi, recalled from Japan, while along came Quade Cooper shortly afterward to reshape Rennie’s side.
The changes quickly reversed the Wallabies fortunes as they stunned South Africa with back-to-back wins.
Cooper’s fairytale test return was complete with a last-gasp clutch penalty goal to take a 28-26 win on the Gold Coast. A week later, centre Len Ikitau and wing Marika Koroibete both scored doubles on the way to a 30-17 win in Brisbane.
Across both tests captain Michael Hooper registered 23 tackles from 23 attempts and took five turnovers. He was back at his best to foil the breakdown and stand tall against the vaunted Springbok pack.
Taniela Tupou unleashed his power running that proved near unstoppable, even too much for the Springboks who thrive on physicality. A smart piece of play on a blindside switch put Tupou’s skills on show as he provided a wonder pass for Marika Koroibete to break the backs of the visitors.
Kerevi was the workhorse midfielder who attacked the Springboks lineout seam with fearless carrying, which set the platform for the Wallabies to run their array of patterns and strike plays.
When you look at the names responsible for the key performances in those wins, it gives cause for concern for the Wallabies, who will be without most of them.
Cooper is injured and will not feature again this year, likewise with Kerevi who suffered a knee injury playing Sevens. Hooper’s absence does not seem likely to end soon although they would desperately like to issue him an SOS call.
Those three ‘million dollar plus’ players will not be on the field for the Wallabies and their absences will be felt.
Experience isn’t everything but genuine production is. They put up big performances last year that will be hard, if not impossible, to replicate.
They have just let go of their defence coach after a historic loss to the Pumas in San Juan, not to mention James O’Connor has been deemed surplus to requirements.
Rennie has set a marker that losses of that magnitude are not going to be tolerated, but it is uncertain who will come in and do better, particularly at flyhalf.
Is there anything on the bright side right now for the Wallabies?
Well, for one is Dave Rennie’s impressive coaching record versus South African teams.
As head coach of the Chiefs from 2012-17, Rennie held a win-draw-loss record of 17-2-4 against South Africa’s Super Rugby teams for a 74 per cent win rate. His first two tests as Wallabies head coach against the Springboks were wins last year, sporting an early 100 per cent success rate.
He does have a history of winning against South African rugby teams, and the Wallabies will host both matches on Australian soil where the Springboks haven’t tasted success since 2013.
They still have power running in prop Tupou and No 8 Rob Valetini, who is central to most of their go-forward. Without Kerevi in the midfield, they can use short lineouts and get the ball in the hands of either of these two forwards.
Tupou’s form seems to be indifferent, but he is still a must for the Wallabies based on potential. He seems to rise for the big occasions at home and it is hard to see the Wallabies tight five getting on top without him.
The return of tighthead Allan Alaalatoa could turn Tupou into a bench option to help negate the 6-2 split from South Africa, where he can still be valuable to provide an explosive cameo.
The back three are going to have to lift dramatically after a shambolic effort handling kicks in the second test against Los Pumas. A full reshuffle there is expected with the oncoming aerial assault pending.
Halfback Nic White is going to have to lead the attack and produce his best work if the Wallabies are going to have a chance, but they are lacking a playmaker at No 10 to link up with the outsides they way that Quade Cooper can.
If they don’t trust Brumbies flyhalf Noah Lolesio to do the job, the best two replacements are not the young Tahs options, but two Queenslanders in Japan, 28-year-old Sam Greene and 23-year-old Isaac Lucas, who are attacking 10s who know how to play.
They are not of the one dimensional distributor mould with no running game that Australia likes, which is perhaps why they are in Japan.
Relying on Bernard Foley to produce his best at this stage is a stretch and a half, same with Kurtley Beale. We’ve seen everything out of Foley and Beale we need to, there isn’t one last squeeze of the orange left.
Turning back the clock worked with Cooper last year but how many more times will it produce? These are not the same circumstances.
Cooper’s Wallabies career was derailed earlier than it should and he had a point to prove coming back. He was the most talented player of his generation and Rugby Australia never quite found the right formula to maximise his abilities. Rennie saw what he could bring and built around that.
Inversely, Foley and Beale’s careers were not put on hold indefinitely, they were two of Cheika’s favourites who were seemingly undroppable.
They got every chance under the sun despite whatever form they brought to the table, which for the final stages of their international careers, was not good.
It feels like the Wallabies are stuck in a corner here and there are no miracle fixes to pull this time.
It is going to be a younger Australian side, understrength, lacking a few world class players to match it with the Springboks. They are going to have to fight hard and just take the medicine.
Perhaps the young guns have it in them to pull one out of the bag, but there likely won’t be a sweep this time around.
The Boks have it in them to break their nine-year duck on this tour and get their Rugby Championship campaign back on track.
They cannot possibly lose two in a row to this Australian side.
Comments on RugbyPass
Billy's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
3 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
2 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
28 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
1 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
1 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
2 Go to commentsLions might take him on if they move on Van Rooyen but I doubt he will want to go back, might consider it a step backwards for himself. Sharks would take him on but if Plumtree goes on to win the challenge cup they will keep him on. Also sharks showing some promising signs recently. Stormers and Bulls are stable and Springboks are already filled up. Quality coach though, interesting to see where he ends up
1 Go to commentsAnd the person responsible for creating a culture of accountability is?
3 Go to commentsMore useless words from Ben Smith -Please get another team to write about. SA really dont need your input, it suck anyway.
264 Go to commentsThis disgraceful episode must result in management and coach team sackings. A new manager with worse results than previous and the coaching staff need to coached. Awful massacre led by donkeys.
1 Go to commentsInteresting article with one glaring mistake. This sentence: “And between the top four nations right now, Ireland, France, South Africa, and New Zealand…” should read: And between the top four nations right now, South Africa, Ireland, New Zealand and France…”. Get it right wistful thinkers, its not that hard.
24 Go to commentsHow did Penny get the gig anyway?
3 Go to commentsNice write up Nick and I would have agreed a week ago. However as you would know Cale & co got absolutely monstered by the Blues back row of Sotutu, Ioane and Papaliti and not all of these 3 are guaranteed a start in the Black jumper. He may need to put some kgs before stepping up, Spring tour? After the week end Joe will be a bit more restless. Will need to pick a mobile tough pack for Wales and hope England does the right thing and bashes the ABs. I like your last paragraph but I would bring Swinton, Hannigan into the 6 role and Bobby V to 8
28 Go to commentsThe Crusaders can still get in to the Play Off’s. The imminent return of outstanding captain Scott Barrett and his All Black team mate Codie Taylor will be a big boost.There are others like Tamaiti Williams too. Two home games coming up. Fellow Crusader fans get there and support these guys. I will be.
2 Go to commentsCant get more Wellington than Proctor.
3 Go to commentsWhy not let the media decide. Like how they choose the head coach. Like most of us we entrust the rugby system to choose. A rugby team includes the coaches. It's collective.
14 Go to commentsHi NIck, I have been very impressed with him and he seems a smart player who can see opportunities which Bobby V _(who must be an international 6_) doesn’t see or have the speed to take advantage of. If he continues to improve and puts on 5kgs then he could be a great 8. He is a bit taller than Keiran Reid at 1.93m and 111 kgs, so his skill set fits his body size and who knows where it will lead. I hope the spate of Achilles tendon issues have been dealt with by the S&C people. It’s been a very long time since Mark Loane and Kefu stood out at 8. The question is will we be able to hold onto him, if he does make it he will be pretty hot property. I disagree with the idea of letting them go to the Northern Hemisphere and then bring them back.
28 Go to commentsBilly Fulton 🤣🤣🤣🤣 garrrmon not even close
14 Go to comments