The Springboks don't need a No10, they just need a goal kicker
Ireland head into their clash against the Springboks as clear favourites, but whether that tag holds too much weight to carry with them will soon be answered.
That will suit South Africa just fine who tend to crumble under high expectations and seemingly love to play under pretences of victimhood and feeling slighted in order to rally into action.
The All Blacks were thoroughly outclassed in every facet of the game in the final two tests with flyhalf Johnny Sexton back on the field, resulting in a historic series win over New Zealand in July.
The Springboks, with two tests of their own at home against the All Blacks, imploded at Ellis Park with a chance at point blank to put New Zealand out of their misery.
A colossal selection misfire and inferior conditioning at altitude trying to keep up with the fast-paced play of the All Blacks led to the home side’s downfall.
Left to share the inter-series 1-all, it cost the Springboks their first ever full Rugby Championship title as they came up short by a bonus point in the final wash.
The Springboks are what they are, blowing hot and cold and consistently inconsistent, unable to maintain excellence for long stretches.
At their best they can manhandle an opposition side, like the Wallabies in Sydney, at their worst they fail to show up, like against the same Wallabies the week before in Adelaide.
The travel factor has always been a hindrance for the Boks and could be a factor first up in Dublin.
The last time they visited Dublin in 2017 they fell to a 38-3 defeat, which perhaps spelled the end of the Allister Coetzee-era. They bounced back to beat France in Paris the next week, but after the end of the tour he was out.
As disastrous as some of the games under Coetzee were, like 57-0 at Albany, the Springboks’ overall record in his final year in charge (7W-2D-4L) was better than Erasmus in his first year (7W-7L), with a higher win percentage and three less losses.
The difference being the magnitude of some of the individual losses under Coetzee became too lopsided to stomach.
In this new era, the Springboks have not suffered a heavy defeat of 20 points or more since that last trip to Ireland.
A 15 point loss to England in a dead rubber in 2018 and a 13 point loss to Australia in 2021 have been their largest since.
If Ireland are to back up their favouritism with the result, they will have to grind out a win this time.
They have proven to have the complete game to handle what South Africa will throw at them, aided by a raucous home crowd at the Aviva which has become somewhat of a fortress. Ireland have 15 wins and one loss at the Aviva since 2020 under Andy Farrell.
As long as Sexton is in the starting line-up, Ireland are a formidable opponent with the world’s best attacking shapes and structures. Their defence has also been incredibly strong under Farrell, outside of a chaotic twenty minute period at Eden Park in the first test against the All Blacks.
South Africa have not played a side as clinical with the ball as Ireland, but against more physical sides like France it has been tough for the Irish to control the game through possession the way they desire.
The Boks have what it takes to trouble or limit Ireland’s attack much like France, which will put Ireland’s decision-making in scoring range in focus. They were bold against the All Blacks, aggressively turning down multiple shots at goal to have a crack at the line.
Much has been made of the loss of Handre Pollard and the lack of options at 10 for South Africa.
Damian Willemse already adequately covers the role, but fear not, as the bigger picture has been missed here – there is no need for a genuine No 10 in the Springboks system.
And there never has been under Rassie Erasmus or Jacques Nienaber.
The only thing that matters is having a place kicker that can be relied upon, whether he is wearing No 10 or not.
If there is a placekicker who hovers around 80 per cent somewhere in the team, then just about any backline player in the squad could turn out at No 10, as evidenced by the selection of Frans Steyn against Argentina in this year’s Rugby Championship.
Despite comparisons being made between Steyn and Sexton, the world’s current best flyhalf, the similarities start and finish with their playing ages.
Steyn was the established goal kicker they needed, they were able to construct a comfortable 38-21 win in Durban with the 35-year-old at flyhalf. Ireland on the other hand, capitulate in no short order without Sexton on the field, such is his presence needed.
Pollard’s absence was no problem as he was never needed to make plays with ball in hand to begin with. Armed with a pack that dominates up front and wins penalties, the flyhalf is a backseat passenger along for the ride.
In the breakthrough win over the Wallabies in Sydney, Willemse showed flashes as a dynamic flyhalf with all the tools to potentially become one of the world’s best at the position.
Willemse’s biggest roadblock to realising his potential is that the Springboks typically do not want their 10 taking on too much on attack, an area he presents a constant threat. In a different system, he could really deliver something special.
His Achilles heel, from a Springboks perspective, can be his goal kicking which will be put to the test against Ireland. They have not named another experienced goal kicker like Steyn in the 23, opting for a 6-2 split and cover at scrumhalf and fullback. Willemse will have to deliver.
He nailed a long range penalty under pressure to beat Wales in the first test in July, but last year against the Wallabies sprayed a conversion right that would have built a three point buffer. They lost by two points, putting his costly miss under the spotlight.
Despite his gifted ability with the ball in hand, his accuracy off the tee harms his prospects of locking down the starting role, in the absence of having another sharpshooter there to take the kicking duties off him.
A couple of key missed kicks will test the management’s belief in their young No 10 as points will be at a premium in Dublin.
Ireland have not lost a test at home during the Autumn international period since 2016, when the All Blacks came seeking retribution for the Chicago defeat.
On that day, the brutality of Hansen’s side was called into question, but you feel a similar intensity from the Springboks may be required to end a streak of 12 straight test wins in the November period since that 21-9 loss.
If they don’t bring that attitude, it’s hard to see them matching it with the world’s current No 1 ranked side.
Comments on RugbyPass
I certainly don’t miss drinking beers at 8am in the morning watching rugby games being played in NZ.
1 Go to commentsThis looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
1 Go to commentsVery unlikely the Bulls will beat Leinster in Dublin. It would be different in Pretoria.
1 Go to commentsI think it is a dangerous path to go down to ban a player for the same period that a player they injured takes to recover. Players would be afraid to tackle anyone. I once tackled my best friend at school in a practice match and sprained his ankle. I paid for it by having to play fly-half instead of full-back for the rest of that season’s fixtures.
5 Go to commentsJust such a genuine good bloke…and probably the best all round player in his generation. Good guys do come first sometimes and he handled the W.Cup loss with great attitude.
2 Go to commentsWord in France is that he’s on the radar of a few Top14 clubs.
2 Go to commentsGet blocking Travis, this guy has styles and he’s gonna make a swift impact…!
1 Go to commentsWhat remorse? She claimed that her dangerous tackle wasn’t worthy of a red! She should be compensating the injured player for loss of earnings at the minimum. Her ban should include the recovery time of the injured player as well as the paltry 3 match ban.
5 Go to commentsArdie is a legend. Finished and klaar. Two things: “Yeah, yeah, I have had a few conversations with Razor just around feedback on my game and what I am doing well, what I need to improve on or work-ons. It’s kind of been minimal, mate, but it’s all that I need over here in terms of how to be better, how to get better and what I am doing well.” I hope he’s downplaying it - and that it’s not that “minimal”. The amount of communication and behind the scenes preparation the Bok coaches put into players - Rassie and co would be all over Ardie and being clear on what is expected of him. This stands out for me as something teams should really be looking at in terms of the boks success from a coaching point of view. And was surprised by the comment - “minimal”. In terms of the “debate” around Ireland and South Africa. Nice one Ardie. Indeed. There’s no debate.
2 Go to commentsThere’s a bit of depth there but realistically Australian players have a long way to go to now catch up. The game is moving on fast and Australia are falling behind. Australian sides still don’t priories the breakdown like they should, it’s a non-negotiable if you want to compete on the international stage. That goes for forwards and backs. The Australian team could have a back row that could make a difference but the problem is they don’t have a tight five that can do the business. Tupou is limited in defence, overweight and unfit and the locks are a long way from international standard. Frost is soft and Salakai-Loto is too small so that means they need a Valentini at 8 who has to do the hard graft so limits the effectiveness of the backrow. Schmidt really needs to get a hard working, tough tight 5 if he wants to get this team firing.
3 Go to commentsSorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
2 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to commentsSimple reason for wanting him back. Robertson wants him as captain. Otherwise he wouldn’t be bothering chasing him. Not enough reason to come back just to mentor.
10 Go to commentsI had not considered this topic like this at all, brilliant read. I had been looking at his record at the Waratahs and thought it odd the Crusaders appointed him, then couple that with all that experience and talent departing and boom. They’ve got some great talent developing though, and in all honesty I don’t think anyone would be over confident taking them on in a playoff match, no matter how poor the first half of their season was. I think they can pull a game out of their ass when it counts.
2 Go to commentsNot a bad list but not Porecki and not Donaldson. Not because they are Tahs, or Ex Tahs, they are just not good enough. Edmed should be ahead. Far more potential. Wilson should be 8 and Valentini 6. Wilson needs to be told by his father and his coach, stop bloody running in to brick wall defence. You’re not playing under the genius Thorn any more. He’s a fantastic angle runner. The young new 8 from the Brumbies looks really good too. The Lonegrans are just too small for international rugby as is Paisami, as is Hamish Stewart at 12. Both great at Super Rugby level. Stewart could have been a great 10 if not for Brad Thorn. Uru should be there and so should Tupou. Tupou just needs good Australian coaching which he hasn’t been getting. I don’t think Schmidt will excite him.
3 Go to commentsIf he wants to come back then he should. He will be a major asset to the younger locks and could easily be played as an impact player off the bench coming on in the last 30. He is fit, strong and capable and has all the experience to make up for any loss in physical prowess. He could also be brought back with a view to coaching within the structures one day. Duane Vermeulen played until he was 37 or 38. He is now a roaming coach within the South African coaching structures. He was valuable in the last world cup and has been a major influence on Jasper Wiese and other young players which has helped and accelerated their development and growth. Whitelock could do the exact same thing for NZ
10 Go to commentsBrett Excellent words… finally someone (other than DC) has noted that Hanigan is very hard and very good at doing what Backrow should do… his performance via the Drua sauna was quite daunting for those on the other side… very high tackle count… carries with good end result… constant threat to make a good 20-25 meters with those long legs… providing his mass effectively to crunching the Drua pack… Finally he is returning to quality form… way to much injury time over the last 2 years… smart-strong-competent in his skills… caught every lineout throw aimed at him and delivered clean pass to whoever was down below… and he worked hard for the whole 80 minutes… Ned has to be in the top 5 for backrow honors… He knows what is required as he has been there before…
20 Go to commentsI think Sam Whitelock should not touch a return with a bargepole. He went out on a high, playing in the RWC Final. He would be coming back into a team that will be weaker than last years, and might even be struggling to win games, especially against the Boks. Stay in France, enjoy another year with Pau, playing alongside his brother.
10 Go to commentsRyan Coxon has been very impressive considering he was signed by WF as injury cover whilst Uru has been a standout for QR, surprised neither of those mentioned
3 Go to comments