Jake White: Ireland are expected to beat the Boks after their heroics in New Zealand
Back in 2005, Clive Woodward came over to South Africa to visit me. Over a glass of red, I remember him saying, ‘You know the best model in world rugby is Ireland’s?’. I said, ‘What do you mean, Clive?’, he said, ‘Well, if you work it out, all of their players play locally, all of their players are managed by the union and they are looked after on and off the pitch and they have a provincial split that marries with their rich history’.
I had to agree and ever since, I’ve watched their progress closely. They move their players around the provinces like chess pieces, in order to benefit the greater good; Ireland. Joey Carbery to Munster, Robbie Henshaw to Leinster, Andrew Conway to Munster, I could go on. Their academies are also top notch and their school system is phenomenal. Look at Josh van der Flier. The player he was when he started and the player he is now. It’s a significant change. Their pathway is best in class
They’ve also recruited shrewdly from abroad for the betterment of the game. Think back to Doug Howlett and Jean de Villiers at Munster, and more recently Damien de Allende and CJ Stander, who went on to win 50 caps for Ireland. Up at Leinster, James Lowe and Jamison Gibson-Park have thrived for both province and country, while Scott Fardy and Isa Nacewa have been incredible signings. Then you have Duane Vermeulen and Marcell Coetzee at Ulster, or Mack Hansen and Bundee Aki at Connacht. It’s so smart.
They are also ambitious. I was told it was the Irish provinces who pushed hardest for the South African franchises to join the URC because they saw it as a way they could improve the standard of their play. Stuart Lancaster said as much recently, when he talked out what they’d learnt on and off the field. Few can argue that the URC is a far more competitive and respected league now.
The one area Ireland have fallen short is the World Cup. For many, many years, Ireland have disappointed when competing for the grandest prize. The talk is they peak between World Cups, a bit like the All Blacks in the old days, and are yet to make it past the quarter-finals. This is why Saturday is such a watershed fixture. It’s the reigning World Champions, the Springboks, against one of the world’s form teams.
I was told the Springboks Test sold out from the moment they clinched the series in the summer and you’d expect Dublin to be close to running out of Guinness on Saturday such is the magnitude of this Test. Ireland are expected to win this game after their heroics in New Zealand, and they’ll be confident. That said, you don’t win World Cups the year before, but you can definitely lose them. There’s a chance for the Irish to get the monkey off their back, and that starts against South Africa. If they don’t manage it, however, doubts will creep in. They are one of the favourites for the World Cup but a lot of Irish rugby supporters will have seen this movie before and should they lose, the ghosts will start to rattle and the insecurities and pressure will start again.
There are so many subplots. The Leinster boys will be putting down a marker against the Stormers and Sharks, while the Boks won’t want to lose to a side who beat the All Blacks on their own turf. Then, of course, they play each other in the pool stages next year. It has every ingredient for a classic.
Turning to the Boks, I do think it was a masterstroke by Rassie Erasmus to call up Jason Jenkins. He hasn’t played a Test for four years, but he gets all the intellectual property gained from his time with Leinster and Munster 10 months out from the World Cup. I coached Jason at the Bulls, and to see what he has done at Leinster in a short space of time is impressive. Remember, most of Rassie’s coaches are from Munster. Felix Jones was there and so was Jacques Nienaber, so they’re not short of inside information on their World Cup rivals.
For Rassie, after being out with a ban, fans will ask, is he refreshed and full of new ideas? Despite injury, I think Pollard is still the main man, but Damian Willemse has always wanted to play at 10. By sending Manie Libbok and Sacha Mngomezulu back, and putting Willie Le Roux as 10 cover, it’s clear they back him. The Boks have invested a lot in him in the last few years and he’ll be up against Johnny Sexton who is playing some of the best rugby in his career. For Willemse, it is a huge test to see if he is going to be the understudy to Pollard, and he needs the experience. The old adage was that teams wanted to go to the World Cup with an average of 50-odd Tests but because of Covid, there will be a lot of Springbok players who don’t have that profile. People like Jasper Wiese, Jaden Hendrikse and Kurt-Lee Arendse. They will have to learn fast, and this Autumn is key to their progression.
Looking ahead to the rest of the Series, France will be up next. They have the expectation of hosting a World Cup and winning it because they have been one of rugby’s form teams, and are unbeaten in 10 games.
Mark my words though, there is significant pressure on France; the All Blacks won the World Cup in 1987, South Africa won the Cup in 1995, Australia lost the final in 2003 and the All Blacks won it again in 2011. It shows you why Les Bleus are seen as a team who are expected to progress deep into the competition. In fact, only England in 2015 failed to reach the knockout stages as hosts. That’s why it is such an important month because most sides usually have a four-year plan to build depth, or change the way they want to play, even with the same players, but that’s had to be recalibrated because of the pandemic.
This is where Rassie has to be careful. The All Blacks tried to replicate their 1987 win with an older team, and fell short in 1991, and it was the same for the Wallabies in 1995 after winning it in 1991. Rassie has already shown it can be done in 2018, taking the Boks to the final and winning it 20 months later – and don’t forget Kitch Christie managed to do it in 1994, when Ian McIntosh got fired, but it’s a perilous balance to maintain.
It’s funny because usually the narrative during the Autumn is that England is South African’s biggest game. Most fans would traditionally fly over to London for the weekend and try to be at that game. Don’t get me wrong, it’s still massive if you think about the history between the two, but now the lie of the land is slightly different. The whole emphasis is on these back-to-back Tests with Ireland and France. It promises to be an epic Autumn Series and everything could change over the next month. I cannot wait.
Comments on RugbyPass
Je suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
1 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusades , you can keep going.
1 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
25 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
25 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
25 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
25 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
11 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
11 Go to comments