South Africa have painted themselves into a corner
Fair play to Jacques Nienaber and Rassie Erasmus. They don’t play by anyone else’s rules.
First broke convention and named a 7-1 bench split in favour of forwards for the friendly against New Zealand in August. But the decision was easily dismissed as a whacky experiment that would never see the light of day in a game that mattered.
Then they repeated the trick against Ireland in a World Cup pool match. Ah yes, the commentators mused, this game didn’t count either. You see, they could afford to lose this one. It was basically a free shot. Why not stack the deck with seven forwards? What’s the worst that could happen?
So when they reached the knockouts and named a more conventional 5-3 split, it felt as if sanity had finally prevailed. Erasmus, with his traffic lights from the roof, and Nienaber, with his obsession for numbers only he can see, had finally, finally, seen reason. But if you think that logic would precipitate more logic, you haven’t been paying attention to a six year story that has been harder to follow than a Christopher Nolan sci-fi.
Because in the game that matters most, a World Cup final against the New Zealand All Blacks, South Africa’s script writers have served up a twist of epic proportions – a bench split of seven forwards and one solitary back who has looked out of sorts across the tournament and is proficient in only one position.
Of course, there is a modicum of sense to be gleaned from this otherwise baffling call. The Springboks appeared understandably knackered by the end of their gruelling match against England in the semi-finals. The week before they were asked to tackle rhinos and wildebeest in the quarterfinal blockbuster against France. And in the driving Parisian rain, Steve Borthwick’s English charges won the arm wrestle for most of the contest.
It’s not often Eben Etzebeth is given the shepherd’s crook less than 10 minutes into the second half but his substitution against England was justified. He was a spent force. A damp squib. A busted flush. Except he wasn’t the only member of the much vaunted tight five that got bossed and bullied by the team on the white side.
In order to rectify the threat of running out of fuel in the final, South Africa’s coaches have opted to stockpile as much wood for the furnace as they can carry. They’ve left Ox Nche, the monster scrummager who turned the tide against England, on the bench. They’ve also added the considerable heft of Jean Kleyn and Jasper Wiese to the mix. Both players will enter the scene and be tasked with one specific job. The smash anyone wearing a black jersey with all the force of a collapsing star.
South Africa’s strategy is clear. Manie Libbok has got the axe following a disappointing show against England. It wasn’t his fault he hardly got any front ball to work with, but the wet weather amplified his flaws and with rain expected again this weekend, it’s easy to see why his coaches opted not to gamble on his inclusion.
The same rationale could be used to explain Cobus Reinach’s omission. The men who steadied the teetering ship in the semi-final by replacing the two dazzling half-backs – Handre Pollard and Faf de Klerk – might not be electric, but they offer safer hands. History shows that World Cup finals are won by the side that makes fewer mistakes.
But here’s the thing. A 7-1 split is a bit like the Schrödinger Cat of rugby team selections. It’s both adventurous and conservative. It’s a ballsy move if it pays off and the plethora of forwards can keep the engine chugging at full throttle. But at the same time it feels like an unnecessarily mawkish ploy that is done more in hope than intention. It’s as if the Boks have decided to start a mixed martial arts fight by lying down and kicking upwards, hoping that their opponent maniacally runs straight into a flailing foot.
In order for this to work the Springboks have to take a lead. When they used the 7-1 strategy against New Zealand two months ago, the All Blacks were reduced to 13 men after two quick yellow cards to Scott Barrett and Sam Cane. The Springboks then scored two tries to open a 14-0 lead and would score another two tries as they breezed to a 28-0 advantage.
Because New Zealand had to chase the game, and because New Zealand were fielding an inexperienced pack, and because New Zealand were further hamstrung when Barrett copped a red card just before the half-time break, South Africa could keep their opponents at arm’s length throughout. Their rumbling forwards could dictate the tempo while their backs had the luxury of picking off the Kiwis who were reduced to a ragged mess.
If, however, the Boks go behind early on, as they did when the All Blacks cruised to a 35-20 win in the Rugby Championship in Auckland in July, then the South Africans will be scrambling. If that transpires, the Springboks might look up and realise they’ve painted themselves into a corner without the personnel to find a way out.
Damian Willemse might have to play the game of his life, stepping up at first receiver to unfurl a distribution game that would be a tribute to Carlos Spencer in his hay-day. Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse, who were both starved of the ball against England and were second best in the battle for the skies, will each have to unleash a hot-stepping virtuoso. And the centre pair of Damian de Allende and Jesse Kriel, ordinarily a more defensively-minded duo, would have to find an attacking zeal that would make Danie Gerber proud.
Can the Springboks win this match and become world champions for a record fourth time? Of course they can. Who’s to say that everything won’t go according to plan? There’s every chance they steamroll the All Blacks, underlining the genius of ‘RasNaber’ and confirm their status as the greatest rugby nation on the planet. But the reverse could also happen. This could get ugly for the Boks as wave after wave of inept runners in green break upon obsidian black rocks. It will all come down to that opening half hour. Set your watch for 21:30 local time. By then we should know if the bold decision paid off.
Comments on RugbyPass
guys its fine! he understands why he did what he did and has taken accountability for it; why should he have to be accountable to a court? after all he did was abuse people in person - its not as if he was engaging in _online_ abuse!
1 Go to commentsChiefs flanker Kaylum Boshier yellow-carded for collapsing the scrum as it rolled towards the line. It was a maul….
1 Go to commentsyou know, i’m a leinster fan so I want Northampton to lose and it is gonna be tuff with Cortney lawes, Alex michell and the other guys🏉 lets go leinster🏉
1 Go to commentsWelcome to the Pro ranks. Those hard teams of old do hit the sole better though. its a dog fight at the top.
6 Go to commentsCan someone fill me in please, I've read a number of Ben Smith articles now and it seems he's got something again South Africa? Surely, this game was over and done with 7 months ago. Can't we have something a bit more interesting and relevant, or is this the calibre of journalist on this site?
227 Go to commentsNot sure what the Welsh are moaning about. They’ve had far more players off England, than England have had off Wales. Guys like Josh Hathaway and Kane James will play for Wales in the end. And they’ll be fsr better players for having played in the Gallagher Premiership, than they ever would have been had they stayed mired in the shambles that is Welsh rugby.
3 Go to commentsThis is all being blown totally out of proportion. First of all, since half the Irish team isn’t Irish - it’s very likely that none of the Irish players said that at all and, thus, we’re not being arrogant. Second, since half the Irish team is Kiwi - it’s very likely the Kiwi players were predicting a NZ SA World Cup final. Which they got spot on. Good on them!
163 Go to commentsAha. An Irishman with logic! Follow the flow: - Ireland peaks with a >80% win record between 2020 and 2023. And then… - crashes out of another QF at the WC; - Beat a poor French Team; - Beat 6N wooden spoonists Italy; - Play shite against eventual wooden spoonists Wales; - Lose against the most boring, “the worst English team ever” , a team widely regarded as unable to attack; - scrape through against Scotland. This article, No - Trimble, is on the money! Except for one glaring statement: _The Springboks have a few aces in the hole in this debate being the reigning world champions and official world number ones_ There is no debate, boys and girls. There it is. In black and white. “Reigning World Champions and OFFICIAL world number ones”. Come July, the overrated Andy Farrell and this overhyped team are going to enter into a world of hurt.
86 Go to commentsI’d like to know what homoerotic events Daniel enjoyed at 8th man. I clearly missed out!
19 Go to commentsThis article is missing some detail, like some actual context or info about what led to him abusing the ref.
2 Go to comments*They used to say that football is a gentleman sport watched by hooligans and rugby is a hooligan sport watched by gentlemen. How times have changed.*
3 Go to commentsexcept ot wasnt late wasnt late at all so dont know why you all saying its late he commits early and its your fault fir not paying attention
29 Go to commentsNot sure the Bulls need another average utility back in their ranks. Chamberlain has been ok for the Sharks but is by no means an X-Factor player. Bulls bought several utility backs which they barely use. A typical example would be Henry Immelman who plays mostly Fullback. The Bulls however have rarely played him this year and he has played wing or centre. Bulls want to build depth but seems like they have too many surplus players
1 Go to commentsABs lost against a side playing without a hooker - The guy playing, had one shoulder. Line outs were a gimme for the ABs, and the last 8 minutes 14 played 14 against a team that had been smashed 3 weeks in a row… Yet with all that possession, with all that territory, with all the advantages they actually had, especially in the last 8 minutes, they couldn’t buy a point. Those last 8 minutes determined if they outplayed the Boks or not. History will show that the Boks completely outplayed the ABs, especially in those last 8 minutes, the business end of any rugby match
227 Go to commentsWould’ve, could’ve, should’ve, didn’t.
227 Go to commentsKok will become a fan favourite
1 Go to commentsI am really looking forward to Leigh Halfpenny playing his first Super rugby game for the Crusaders Playing a long side his former Welsh and Scarlets team mate Johnny McNicoll.Johnny has been playing great, back in a Crusaders jersey.The attack has strengthened big time. Also looking forward to David Havili at 10. David is a class act, it also allows Dallas McLeod to remain at 12. A good thing.
1 Go to commentsIf he had stopped insisting on playing in the backrow, instead of wing, where everyone told him he should, he would have been a Bok years ago….
11 Go to comments‘Salads don’t win scrums’ 😂 I love that.
19 Go to commentsCan’t wait for the article that talks about misogyny in Ireland. Somehow.
19 Go to comments