Ross Tucker: 'The public have made their mind up without looking at the evidence'
The ‘Ship of Thesus’ is a thought experiment that predates the birth of rugby union by more than 1,700 years. Our oldest record of the conundrum comes to us from the ancient Greek philosopher, Plutarch, who wondered how many alterations a ship can undertake before it ceases to be the same ship.
Centuries later, the Englishman Thomas Hobbes extended the idea and ever since the notion has proliferated the discourse in cognitive psychology, quantum physics and, most recently, the fate of an egg shaped ball.
At the time of writing the Rugby Football Union is facing a mutiny from 250 amateur clubs across England as the organisation’s CEO, Bill Sweeny, must now deal with the threat of a no confidence vote.
The source of the clubs’ ire is a controversial tackle law that will reduce the height limit of a legal hit in the amateur game from the shoulders to the waist in order to reduce head collisions. The latest reports suggest that this law could also take hold at the elite game, thereby changing the dynamics of the sport forever.
But how much change is too much? For Ross Tucker, a respected sports scientist and consultant for World Rugby, there is no obvious answer.
“This entire conversation has been framed in absolute terms, and it shouldn’t be the case,” Tucker says. “It’s not about reducing concussions. It’s about how much you are prepared to reduce concussions until it’s a different sport.
“On the one extreme you can do nothing. But that’s not how sport works. Rugby has constantly been evolving in the professional era in an effort to make the game more safe.
“On the other extreme you could eliminate contact altogether and just play touch rugby. The challenge for those running the sport is deciding where you fall on the spectrum. It becomes a cost benefit analysis. What price are you willing to pay to change the game? No one knows but it’s clear that change is required.”
Yesterday we analysed the data that proves without doubt that lowering the tackle height reduces concussions on the field as well as long term brain injuries. Cards have failed to act as a deterrent, though Tucker believes that we’re still too early in the experiment to make an adequate judgment if sin-bins and sending offs have actually altered behaviour.
World Rugby’s High Tackle Framework was launched in 2019 and the Head Contact Process was initiated last year. These are among the two best tools the game has to solve one of its major problems, but they’re still in their infancy. Besides, inconsistent application of the high tackle laws have proved problematic.
“The premise is that sanction equals a strong message which equals behavioural change,” Tucker says. “If you break that chain you lose consistency. Look at the Henry Slade incident [where the player escaped punishment after receiving a red card for a clear high shot on Kurt-Lee Arendse during the Champions Cup this month]. What message does that send?”
“Any law requires buy-in. Without it you’re in trouble. And the English are facing a problem now because the rule change has already been met with so much resistance. Implementing it now will be so difficult as everyone has rejected it out of hand.
“The public have seemingly made their mind up without looking at the evidence. They’ve reached a verdict and concocted a worst case scenario but haven’t allowed it to play out. This is being driven by emotion rather than logic.”
It remains to be seen how many amateur players leave the game. Taking the temperature on social media (an admittedly blistering environment at the best of times) it would seem that a mass exodus is imminent.
But it’s worth asking how many players will stay once the game is made less dangerous. Or how many parents will now allow their children to join a club, safe in the knowledge that their risk of chronic traumatic encephalopathy in later life has drastically diminished.
Personally I’m in favour of the new law change primarily because I am a father. I love rugby – I was reared on the euphoria of the Springboks’ 1995 World Cup win – and I have a young son who loves nothing more than running around and crashing into objects. For now it’s stuffed toys but I’ve had flashes envisioning him doing the same under the bright lights of Twickenham.
Though I’ll admit to a double tug. Part of what makes the game so appealing lies in its brutality.
Monster hits prod the same part of our brain that is stimulated when we watch violent films. It’s not a blood lust, per se, but we’re at least on the same spectrum. If we lose that, do we lose something that is integral to rugby’s soul?
A counter argument would focus on the tradeoff. As Tucker points out, the comparable experiment in France has produced a faster game with more offloads, more passes, fewer kicks and a dramatic increase in the speed of the game. Ball carriers are compelled to target space rather than look for contact. Scrum-halves are duty bound to reach the ruck in even less time than they otherwise would.
Forget the knocks to the head. This version of rugby is sure to bring in more fans looking for contributions to the highlights reel. And if we still keep line-outs, scrums, mauls and jackals, are we really sacrificing that much?
“The RFU missed a trick because they needed to make a decisive call but they also needed to be more transparent about their own thinking,” Tucker adds. “Instead, there has been major confusion.
“But I also think they needed to make a decisive call and the idea of creating change by consensus is impossible. If the demand from the community is to be involved in the decision making, that’s what will paralyse the whole thing into inaction. It’s impossible to find consensus on complex issues, because the people you’re asking don’t have the full set of information with which to contribute their decisions.
“The other point is that people are insisting on seeing the evidence for themselves. I guess this is normal and good, but it’s not being done with noble intent. The experts are in positions for a reason, and decision making is the reason. So what’s happened is the undermining of leadership because of mistrust.”
Perhaps your view on the matter depends on which side of the culture war you peg your tent. Has rugby gone soft? Or is it changing too slowly? Should players accept their fate and accept the risk? Or do we need to protect them at all costs, even if the price we pay is creating an unrecognizable game?
I don’t have an answer. Plutarch, Hobbes and smarter people than me have struggled with the same questions.
Comments on RugbyPass
Awesome story. I wonder what a bigger American (SA) scene might have mean for Brex.
1 Go to comments“Johnny McNicholl and the Crusaders” save a Penney. Who has been in camp this week and showed them how to play?
5 Go to commentsSo, reports of the Crusaders’ demise / terminal decline are perhaps just - slightly - premature/exaggerated…? 🤔 Will we see a deep-dive into that by the estimable Rugbypass scribes, and maybe one or two mea culpas? Thought not.
5 Go to comments1. The Chiefs are rudderless without DMac, which enhances his AB chances 2. Chiefs pack are powderpuffs. The hard men arent there anymore 3. They had their golden title chance last yr and wont threaten this yr. Gone in second round of playoffs.
5 Go to commentsHonestly, why did you have to publish such a foolish article the day they play us? 😂
30 Go to comments> They are not standalone entities. They are linked to an amateur association which holds the FFR licence that allows the professional side to compete in the league. That’s a great rule. This looks like the chicken or egg professional scenario. How long is it going to be before the club can break even (if that is even a thing in French rugby)? If the locals aren’t into well it would be good to se them drop to amateur level (is it that far?). Hope they can reset from this level and be more practical, there will be a time when they can rebuild (if France has there setup right).
1 Go to commentsWhat about changing the ball? To something heavier and more pointed that bounces unpredictably. Not this almost round football used these days.
35 Go to commentsThis is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?
35 Go to commentsWow, didn’t realise there was such apathy to URC in SA, or by Champions Cup teams. Just read Nick’s article on Crusaders, are Sharks a similar circumstance? I think SA rugby has been far more balanced than NZs, no?
2 Go to commentsBut here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.
30 Go to commentsIt could be coincidental or prescient that the All Blacks most dominant period under Steve Hansen was when the Crusaders had their least successful period under Todd Blackadder and then the positions reversed when Razor took over the Crusaders.
30 Go to commentsDefinitely sound read everybodyexpects immediate results these days, I don't think any team would travel well at all having lost three of the most important game changers in the game,compiled with the massive injury list they are now carrying, good to see a different more in depth perspective of a coaches history.
3 Go to commentsSinckler is a really big loss for English rugby.
2 Go to commentsThanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause
30 Go to commentsNo way. If you are trying to picture New Zealand rugby with an All Blacks mindset, there have been two factors instrumental to the decline of NZ rugby to date. Those are the horror that the Blues have become and, probably more so, the fixture that the Crusaders became. I don’t think it was healthy to have one team so dominant for so long, both for lack of proper representation of players from outside that environment and on the over reliance on players from within it. If you are another international side, like Ireland for example, sure. You can copy paste something succinct from one level to the next and experience a huge increase in standards, but ultimately you will not be maximizing it, which is what you need to perform to the level the ABs do. Added to that is the apathy that develops in the whole game as a result of one sides dominance. NZ, Super, and Championship rugby should all experience a boom as a result of things balancing out. That said, there is a lot of bad news happening in NZ rugby recently, and I’m not sure the game can be handled well enough here to postpone the always-there feeling of inevitable decline of rugby.
30 Go to commentsNo SA supporter miss Super Rugby - a product that is experiencing significant head wind in ANZ - the competition from rival codes are intense, match attendance figures are at a historical low and the negativity of commentators such as Kirwan and Wilson have accelerated the downward spiral in NZ. After the next RWC in 2027 sponsors will follow Qantas and start leaving in droves.
2 Go to commentsLike others, I am not seeing the connection between this edition of the Crusaders and the All Blacks future prospects under Razor. I think the analysis of the Crusaders attack recently is helpful because Razor and his coaching team used to be able to slot new guys in to their systems and see them succeed. Several of Razor’s coaches are still there so it would be surprising if the current attack and set piece has been overhauled to a great extent - but based on that analysis, it may have been. Whether it is too many new guys due to injuries or retirement or a failure of current Crusaders systems is the main question to be answered imo. It doesn’t seem relevant for the ABs.
30 Go to commentsharry potter is set in stone. he creates stability and finishes well. exactly what schmidt likes. he’s the ben smith of australian rugby. i think it could quite easily be potter toole and kellaway for the foreseeable future.
5 Go to commentsThis is short sighted from Clayton if you ask me, smacks of too much preseason planning and no adaptability. What if DMac is out for a must win match, are they still only going to bring their best first five and playmaker on late in the game? Trusting the game to someone who wasn’t even part of planning (they would have had Trask pinned in as Jacomb preseason). Perhaps if the Crusaders were better they would not have done this, but either way imo you take this opportunity to play a guy you might need starting in a final rather than having their 12th game getting comfortable coming off the bench.
1 Go to commentsThanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.
21 Go to comments