Ross Tucker: 'The public have made their mind up without looking at the evidence'
The ‘Ship of Thesus’ is a thought experiment that predates the birth of rugby union by more than 1,700 years. Our oldest record of the conundrum comes to us from the ancient Greek philosopher, Plutarch, who wondered how many alterations a ship can undertake before it ceases to be the same ship.
Centuries later, the Englishman Thomas Hobbes extended the idea and ever since the notion has proliferated the discourse in cognitive psychology, quantum physics and, most recently, the fate of an egg shaped ball.
At the time of writing the Rugby Football Union is facing a mutiny from 250 amateur clubs across England as the organisation’s CEO, Bill Sweeny, must now deal with the threat of a no confidence vote.
The source of the clubs’ ire is a controversial tackle law that will reduce the height limit of a legal hit in the amateur game from the shoulders to the waist in order to reduce head collisions. The latest reports suggest that this law could also take hold at the elite game, thereby changing the dynamics of the sport forever.
But how much change is too much? For Ross Tucker, a respected sports scientist and consultant for World Rugby, there is no obvious answer.
“This entire conversation has been framed in absolute terms, and it shouldn’t be the case,” Tucker says. “It’s not about reducing concussions. It’s about how much you are prepared to reduce concussions until it’s a different sport.
“On the one extreme you can do nothing. But that’s not how sport works. Rugby has constantly been evolving in the professional era in an effort to make the game more safe.
“On the other extreme you could eliminate contact altogether and just play touch rugby. The challenge for those running the sport is deciding where you fall on the spectrum. It becomes a cost benefit analysis. What price are you willing to pay to change the game? No one knows but it’s clear that change is required.”
Yesterday we analysed the data that proves without doubt that lowering the tackle height reduces concussions on the field as well as long term brain injuries. Cards have failed to act as a deterrent, though Tucker believes that we’re still too early in the experiment to make an adequate judgment if sin-bins and sending offs have actually altered behaviour.
World Rugby’s High Tackle Framework was launched in 2019 and the Head Contact Process was initiated last year. These are among the two best tools the game has to solve one of its major problems, but they’re still in their infancy. Besides, inconsistent application of the high tackle laws have proved problematic.
“The premise is that sanction equals a strong message which equals behavioural change,” Tucker says. “If you break that chain you lose consistency. Look at the Henry Slade incident [where the player escaped punishment after receiving a red card for a clear high shot on Kurt-Lee Arendse during the Champions Cup this month]. What message does that send?”
“Any law requires buy-in. Without it you’re in trouble. And the English are facing a problem now because the rule change has already been met with so much resistance. Implementing it now will be so difficult as everyone has rejected it out of hand.
“The public have seemingly made their mind up without looking at the evidence. They’ve reached a verdict and concocted a worst case scenario but haven’t allowed it to play out. This is being driven by emotion rather than logic.”
It remains to be seen how many amateur players leave the game. Taking the temperature on social media (an admittedly blistering environment at the best of times) it would seem that a mass exodus is imminent.
But it’s worth asking how many players will stay once the game is made less dangerous. Or how many parents will now allow their children to join a club, safe in the knowledge that their risk of chronic traumatic encephalopathy in later life has drastically diminished.
Personally I’m in favour of the new law change primarily because I am a father. I love rugby – I was reared on the euphoria of the Springboks’ 1995 World Cup win – and I have a young son who loves nothing more than running around and crashing into objects. For now it’s stuffed toys but I’ve had flashes envisioning him doing the same under the bright lights of Twickenham.
Though I’ll admit to a double tug. Part of what makes the game so appealing lies in its brutality.
Monster hits prod the same part of our brain that is stimulated when we watch violent films. It’s not a blood lust, per se, but we’re at least on the same spectrum. If we lose that, do we lose something that is integral to rugby’s soul?
A counter argument would focus on the tradeoff. As Tucker points out, the comparable experiment in France has produced a faster game with more offloads, more passes, fewer kicks and a dramatic increase in the speed of the game. Ball carriers are compelled to target space rather than look for contact. Scrum-halves are duty bound to reach the ruck in even less time than they otherwise would.
Forget the knocks to the head. This version of rugby is sure to bring in more fans looking for contributions to the highlights reel. And if we still keep line-outs, scrums, mauls and jackals, are we really sacrificing that much?
“The RFU missed a trick because they needed to make a decisive call but they also needed to be more transparent about their own thinking,” Tucker adds. “Instead, there has been major confusion.
“But I also think they needed to make a decisive call and the idea of creating change by consensus is impossible. If the demand from the community is to be involved in the decision making, that’s what will paralyse the whole thing into inaction. It’s impossible to find consensus on complex issues, because the people you’re asking don’t have the full set of information with which to contribute their decisions.
“The other point is that people are insisting on seeing the evidence for themselves. I guess this is normal and good, but it’s not being done with noble intent. The experts are in positions for a reason, and decision making is the reason. So what’s happened is the undermining of leadership because of mistrust.”
Perhaps your view on the matter depends on which side of the culture war you peg your tent. Has rugby gone soft? Or is it changing too slowly? Should players accept their fate and accept the risk? Or do we need to protect them at all costs, even if the price we pay is creating an unrecognizable game?
I don’t have an answer. Plutarch, Hobbes and smarter people than me have struggled with the same questions.
Comments on RugbyPass
best news and very helpful
4 Go to commentsA year ago Ireland and France looked impressive. In this 6N neither looked special. Both have lost good players, but more importantly teams have figured out how to shut them down. In particular the Irish loss to a rebuilding England and the home game struggle against a brave Scotland did nothing to prove that the Irish RWC result was undeserved. If the Scots can shut down the Irish attack, then SA can do so with interest. Rassie will have watched that game with confidence. Farrell is smart, and the Irish team is talented, so we should expect a more creative game plan in SA. But if all they bring is what they showed against Scotland then Ireland is going to struggle against the Boks. It was a fun 6N tournament, but the win for Ireland was as much about weak competition as about Irish brilliance. It was mostly due to France being off the boil, Wales and Italy not being contenders, and Scotland being a home game. England are looking much better, but “much better” should not be enough to topple a team that is supposed by some to be The Best in the World. I hope that Ireland can bump it up a notch or two for the Bok tour. A year ago they were fantastic to watch. It would be great to see that again.
24 Go to commentsLooking forward to the Wallabies being competitive again. No doubt that Joe can get them back on track.
1 Go to commentsThanks, Nick, not only for this fine article, but for all the others during 6N 2024. I really enjoyed this 2024 tournament, and felt it was one of the best for many years. That final match in Lyons was really good. England were certainly unlucky when that speculative hack by Ramos lead to a French try. It could just so easily have landed in English hand.s, and they score at the other end. I did think though that the French played some great rugby, and some of their driving play in the forwards was just fearsome. I watched Meafou with interest, and he has a good start to his career. It is interesting to compare him with Will Skelton. Lot of similarities, though so far Meafou has not shown any offloading threat. All credit to Borthwick for being prepared to change, and what great result, even if that last game was lost at the death. I feel they are a real chance to cause the AB’s problems this winter/summer. Finally a comment on Ireland. I thought their last game was their worst, and they did not look like the world’s No 2 side at all. What really worries me is that the loss to England was, in my view, down to poor decision making by the coaching group, and ofc Andy Farrell wears that. It was a big mistake to move JGP away from scrum half. Murray should have been the one to go to the wing. And the “finishers” should have been on the field earlier. And this is the second time this has happened. The RWC Qf against the AB’s, and not getting Crowley onto the field was a huge mistake. Finally, finally, watching Italy play was a joy. How wonderful that they are no longer the punchbag of the 6 N.
43 Go to commentsGreat story. Rugby needs new investment in teams like Brussels another pro league in Europe would be great.
1 Go to commentsAlso, looking at the data from last year, it seemed like by far the two biggest predictors of success were (1) kicking more than your opponents, and (2) having a higher rate of line-out wins than your opponents. I haven’t gone through the stats this year with a fine tooth comb, but the increase in kicks per game and the increase in tries from lineouts would suggest that these two metrics are only getting more important. England’s move away from a kick-heavy game to win against Ireland was seen by some as evidence that running rugby is on the rise. Alternatively it could be taken as evidence that if one team kicks more, and the other team wins more lineouts (as England did) a match is bound to be close to a draw.
2 Go to commentsI have been finding it odd that points per 22 entry has become such a talked about stat, given that your points per entry can be driven down by having more entries. These data would seem to confirm that it isn’t a useful metric, or at any rate is less useful than total entries.
2 Go to commentsI think the last two games England have played is some of their best rugby they have played under Borthwick. There has been a lot more attacking instinct and as a reward have created some well worked tries. Ollie Lawrence is a good foil at 12 as he offers the hard direct lines whilst the rest of the backs can play open. As much as it pains me to say but I do hope England keep playing this way. On a side note my favourite try of the weekend was Lorenzo Pani’s for the nice loop play that put him away and his finish was excellent. Thanks as always Nick.
43 Go to commentsMost exciting player on the planet right now, worth the price of a ticket.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith and Ireland live rent free in Safa’s heads. Their comments only triggers because its true. If the Boks had dismantled a 14 man AB’s, then there would be more respect. But they didnt, in fact quite the opposite, the 14 man NZ were clearly better. And the Bok have always been ordinary between RWC’s, thats why their supporters are now ‘only RWC’s matter’. They know thats BS. Its BS to both AB’s and Bok’s due to their history. But now its all the Safas have. Now we’ll hear excuses when they lose “oh we didnt have all our players available, the ABs/France/Eng/Irel were at full strength”, forgetting for a minute that its because of their own dumb policy. Oh well, makes a change from blaming ‘cheating refs’.
24 Go to commentsNo Nick, they did not, in fact, justify any ‘probables’ label. At no time did they seriously compete for the championship. Ireland led from start to finish and in the end, as a result of glaring referee errors, were never under serious pressure to lose their crown.
43 Go to commentsMoney for him, and his family, has been the sole motivator since he signed for Queensland aged 17. Why else sign for Melbourne. Tupou is poorly advised. If he’d stayed and developed in NZ he would have had a long Test career. If Leinster offer him a few more coins than he’s currently earning, he’s goneburger.
4 Go to commentsFinn. No one would say Ford had played well up until the last game. One standout performance in 5 is hardly in form . It should be a given that a 10 will control play . Not in Fords case be praised for suddenly doing so. Where was he against Scotland ,Italy. The pundits were saying how far away from play he was standing and one even said that the Ireland game was his last chance saloon to perform . Not exactly top form catching anyones eye. If he can play like this game after game then great. Keep him in . But after 90 odd caps we all know he just doesnt keep it going . By all means keep him there but the issue is that Borthwick will persist even when he plays poorly. Which is more often than not. Thats why i am concerned that Smith ,despite fab form , cannot get a game at his preferred spot. Can you imagine Ford at full back .
5 Go to commentsI do not really get why put Ollivon at 6 when he’s a 7, while Cros was the best Frenchman of the tournament, playing at…6. His only game replacing Aldritt at 8 doesn’t change much in terms of his impact. Lamaro was also outstanding in that brilliant Italian side, probably better than Reffell. So putting 2 Welsh players from the wooden spoon holders, and none of the 4th nation (Scotland) is also strange. Is it about showing that in this harsh transition Wales is, there were some standouts…?
6 Go to commentsThe events at this year’s six nations should undermine many of the arguments made against promotion and relegation between the six nations and the REC. If Italy had been allowed to yo-yo between divisions it conceivably could have really hurt their development, but if Italy, Wales, and Scotland are all at risk of relegation, with none of them being relegated more often than once every 3 or 4 years, you’d have to back all of them to muddle on through it, especially when you factor in the likelihood they’ll still be guaranteed world league matches against tier 1 opponents. Another way of looking at italys resurgence would be to say that the development model of adding an extra team to the six nations has worked, and now must be done again. Georgia could join to make it a 7 team round robin, and if and when Georgia demonstrate an ability to consistently win games, Portugal can also be added to make it an 8 team 2 conference competition. Frankly at this point I think it falls to world rugby to demand that the 6N act in the interests of the game. If the 6N won’t commit to expansion then the 6N teams should be handicapped in world cup draws (i.e. world cup seedings would not be based on their ranking points, but on their ranking points minus a 5 point penalty).
6 Go to commentsSteve Borthwick deserves credit for releasing the shackles on his England side and letting them play in a manner that somewhat resembles the top sides in the Gallagher Premiership. Will they revert to type in New Zealand in July.?
43 Go to commentsJames Lowe wouldn't get in any other 6N team. He's a great example of Farrell’s brilliance, and the Irish system. He is slow. His footwork is poor. But he fits perfectly in that Irish system, and has a superb impact. But put him in another team, and he'll look bang average.
6 Go to commentsCrusaders reached their heights through recruitment of North Island players, often leaving those NI teams bereft of key players. Example: Scott Barrett and Sam Whitelock robbed the Canes of their lineout and AB locks. For years the Canes have struggled at lock. This rabid recruitment was iniated by rule changes by a Crusader dominated NZR Head Office. Now this aggressive recruitment has back-fired, going after young inside back Hamilton Boys stars. They now have 4 Chiefs region 10s and not one with the requisite experience at Super level. Problems of their own making!
4 Go to commentsOver rated for a long time…exposed at scrum time too.
4 Go to comments“Firing me” should have been Gatland’s answer.
2 Go to comments