Rassie has a plan until the Boks get counter-punched in the mouth

As the old saying goes, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

Supremo head coach Rassie Erasmus had a plan going into the first of two Tests against the Australians. It consisted of pre-selecting teams for both games on the notion that South Africa would wipe the floor in the first Test, opening up the opportunity to play rookies in the second and build more depth.

That in itself is nothing new. Erasmus has long utilised an NFL-sized roster to navigate the annual schedule for years. Sending an ‘A’ team here, a ‘B’ team there, maximising the players available at his disposal.

Now Erasmus predictably says the plan will likely change, with the Springboks in need of competition points out of their second outing against the Australians in Cape Town. They need to retreat, regather, relearn how to play Test rugby.

Joe Schmidt ‘this ranks really highly’

Joe Schmidt ‘this ranks really highly’

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Such a reactionary move shows that the Springboks are now not in a position to dictate terms. Like jumping into ice cold water, the Wallabies have initiated system shock for the Springboks.

They may scrap their entire game plan after just one loss. The all-out attack mode with no sense of risk will be shut down in favour of a direct, power-based game demanding territory over possession and width. Players will lose their jobs as selection changes will be made.

When the game plan is watered down to the ‘Erasmus special’, box kicks, defence & round the corner carries, the rotation policies work. You don’t need a hell of a lot of cohesion with ball-in-hand to execute it.

But building a deeper level attack system requires cohesion and chemistry that takes time to build. You can’t mix and match selections, chop and change combinations, you can’t have no first choice No.10 as Erasmus said they would have earlier this year. The two philosophies don’t mix.

The Springboks are highly likely going to go back to basics this week and abandon their daring style of play, and this presents the Wallabies with a golden opportunity.

If the Wallabies win this week, and it is a big ‘if’, this will be the end of this Springbok team. If they go back to their ‘DNA’ and still can’t beat the injury-ravaged but battle-hardened Wallabies, Erasmus has no option but to clean house.

Captain Kolisi, an iconic figure, is 34-years-old. He lasted 45 minutes before getting pulled. The youngest player in the starting line-up for the Springboks at Ellis Park was 27-years-old, fullback Aphelele Fassi.

Most of this team is 30 plus and father time is knocking on the door. The only forward under 30 was Marco van Staden at 29, and his birthday is next week.

All that experience on the field and they couldn’t make a tactical change to plug the corners, keep it tight, stop the bleeding from endless handling errors.

So how valuable is that experience if they are devoid of on-field leadership and direction, too reliant on the Supremo to call the shots from the box with traffic lights or run out with water and tell them what to do.

Perhaps they were too old to handle the altitude but heading to Cape Town now they will fare better. The much younger Wallabies team had more in the tank and could handle the lungs burning.

Joe Schmidt and the Wallabies are dealing with their own issues, losing winger Dylan Pietsch, inspirational captain Harry Wilson, leader James Slipper, and unused flyhalf Ben Donaldson. The list of unavailable players is already a huge concern. The odds are heavily against the Wallabies from winning again.

If they are to shock the Boks twice, now is the time for a big Will Skelton showing, like the second and third Lions Tests. Because the Wallabies will need to fight fire with fire. They desperately need Rob Valetini on the field to replace Harry Wilson, perhaps Lukhan Salakaia-Loto on the bench too.

They are this close to sending South African rugby into a tailspin that will force Erasmus to go through the unsettling experience of ending the careers of his favourite troops, the likes of Kolisi, Etzebeth, De Jager, Mbonambi, Nche, even Marx.

A Springbok win this week is good for Ireland, France & New Zealand. If South Africa rise up and get the win, concerns will abate quickly and the Ellis Park humiliation will be chalked up as a bad day at the office. They will continue the path of sleepwalking this aging forward pack to a third Rugby World Cup, which is honestly what the other contenders want.

If the Wallabies get two in a row in South Africa, it’s over. The evidence is slapping them in the face and even the most stubborn can’t ignore the sting of a red cheek. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.