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A new coach may have brought renewed optimism and the squad might boast seven England internationals but I think Harlequins are firmly in the relegation battle this season.
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Most people will be looking at it as a straight shootout between Bristol and Worcester to avoid dropping down into the Championship this season but Quins have to be included in that conversation with them for me.
They finished level on points with the Warriors in second from bottom in the table last season, it wasn’t a happy camp at all towards the end of John Kingston’s reign and you can’t just click your fingers and turn everything around straightaway.
They were in freefall in the second half of the last campaign they’ve got to prove that they’ve arrested that decline before they deserve to be mentioned as clearly above the likes of Bristol and Worcester.
They were hammered 44-13 by the Warriors in the penultimate round of last season and Alan Solomons’ men beat Exeter, Gloucester and Newcastle towards the end of 2017/18 as well so were certainly looking the better of the two before the summer.
Quins have played 10 Premiership games in 2018 and won just one of them. Everyone expects them to be better under the new regime but that’s relegation form.
I played with Guzzy [Paul Gustard] and he’s a top quality coach but I think he’s got a hell of a job on his hands there. He hasn’t had a massive amount of time to work with the players yet either because he was on the England tour to South Africa.
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There’s no doubt that he’ll have shaken things up and taken people out of the comfort zone that they were allowed to get into in recent seasons but it takes time to reverse the kind of downward spiral that Harlequins are in and implement the sort of drastic change that Gustard will want.
There is obviously some real individual quality in the squad and they’ve proven that they can raise their game to beat the likes of Saracens in a one-off game but since winning the title in 2012 they’ve been disappointing every season and the last one was an embarrassment for the club.
You have to look at the likes of Chris Robshaw, Danny Care, Mike Brown, Joe Marler and James Horwill as a senior player group and ask how much they want Quins to be a success and what they’re going to change individually and collectively to turn things around.
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You can’t read much into pre-season but they shipped 50 points against Glasgow in their only friendly against a top tier team, so that’s a little indication that it’s going to take Gustard more time to improve a defence that leaked 78 tries in the league last season…that’s three-and-a-half tries per game.
He’s obviously renowned for his defensive coaching but it’s going to take a while to turn that around. I remember when Richard Hill came into Worcester when I was there after we’d been coached by Phil Larder and tried to change the up-and-out defence we’d been using and introduce a full-on blitz. There were errors all over the place. I’m not saying it’ll be the same at Quins but it won’t be easy to switch systems and get it right immediately.
I certainly can’t see any reason why people would all of a sudden think they’ll be competing for a place in the top six and I don’t think they’ll go down but they’re definitely in the relegation dogfight discussion for me.
Harlequins
Ins: Nick Auterac (Bath), Max Crumpton (Bristol Bears), Alex Dombrandt (Cardiff Met), Nathan Earle (Saracens), Semi Kunatani (Toulouse), Paul Lasike(Utah Warriors), Matt Symons (Wasps) and Ben Tapuai (Bath)
Outs: Sam Aspland-Robinson (Leicester Tigers), Joe Gray (Northampton Saints), Jake Hennessey (released), Cameron Holenstein (Jersey Reds), Adam Jones (retired, Harlequins’ Scrum Coach), Charlie Matthews (Wasps),John Okafor (Yorkshire Carnegie), Charlie Piper (released), Jamie Roberts (Bath), Harry Sloan (Ealing Trailfinders), Winston Stanley (retired) and Sam Twomey (London Irish)
There have been too many seasons where one team has been cut adrift at the foot of the table in the Premiership in recent years but I can’t see that happening again this time around.
Bristol are in a much better place than London Irish were at this stage a year ago, even though they did beat Quins in the opening round.
Having their million-pound man Charles Piutau missing for the start of the season is a big blow and it’ll certainly hit them hard if he’s out for an extended period but there’s real strength in other areas of that squad.
John Afoa could be a huge signing for them, George Smith’s experience even at the age of 38 will be key and the likes of Harry Thacker and Aly Muldowney will add something to a squad that was already building nicely in the Championship under Pat Lam without the pressure of having to go through play-offs at the end of the campaign.
For me, the Bristol first team on paper is way more competitive than anything London Irish could put out last season and they should fare much better. However, there is still a major concern about the depth of the squad and how they’ll cope with the injuries that are unavoidable over the course of the season.
A lot of coaches talk about what percentage of their squad they have available to them on average throughout the season and that’ll definitely play a major role in the relegation battle.
It’s not a complete pipe dream to think that Bristol could finish above 11th but it’s a huge step up in intensity and quality from the Championship to the Premiership and I think people are getting ahead of themselves if they’re predicting a top 10 finish. They need to walk before they can run.
Bristol Bears
Ins: John Afoa (Gloucester), Jake Armstrong (Jersey Reds), Luke Daniels (Ealing Trailfinders), Tiff Eden (Nottingham), Jake Heenan (Connacht), Ed Holmes (Exeter Chiefs), James Lay (Bay of Plenty), Jordan Lay (Edinburgh), Tom Lindsay (Bedford Blues), Shaun Malton (Exeter Chiefs), Aly Muldowney (Grenoble), Piers O’Conor (Ealing Trailfinders), Tom Pincus (Jersey Reds), Charles Piutau (Ulster), Harry Randall (Gloucester), George Smith (Queensland Reds), Nic Stirzaker(Melbourne Rebels), Harry Thacker (Leicester Tigers), Lewis Thiede (Ealing Trailfinders), Yann Thomas (Rouen) and Jake Woolmore (Jersey Reds)
Outs: Ryan Bevington (Dragons), Gaston Cortes (Leicester Tigers), Max Crumpton (Harlequins), Tyler Gendall (Cornish Pirates), Alex Giltrow, Ryan Glynn, Ben Gompels, Jason Harris-Wright, David Lemi, Jordon Liney, Ross McMillan, Giorgi Nemsadze (Ospreys), James Newey, Jack O’Connell (Ealing Trailfinders), Thretton Palamo, Olly Robinson (Cardiff Blues), Billy Searle(Wasps), Soana Tonga’uiha (Ampthill), Dan Tuohy (Vannes), Jack Wallace (Richmond), Jordan Williams and Rhodri Williams (both Dragons)
Having said that, I think they have got just enough to avoid the drop and it pains me to say it but I have a feeling it could be my old club Worcester that slips down into the second tier this time around.
It’ll be close but I think the question marks over the ownership of the club could be an issue if they don’t get off to a good start and I don’t see a massive improvement in the squad compared to last season.
Francois Hougaard has been the major difference maker for them. They won five of the 10 Premiership games he started last season and if they can get him playing more matches than that, then they might just prove me wrong and survive again.
The return of Jono Lance is important too because his performances in the six games he played last season were that good that it took them away from London Irish in the lead up to Christmas.
They were relegated in 2014 and in the years that they’ve survived before and after that there has always been a really poor team underneath them, with London Irish, Bristol and London Welsh all well adrift at the bottom.
It looks like being the most competitive season ever in the Premiership again as the quality seems to increase year on year and I do think it’ll be a hell of a battle at the bottom and will go down to the wire but I just think the Warriors’ number might be up come May.
Worcester Warriors
Ins: Ashley Beck (Ospreys), Callum Black (Ulster), Cornell du Preez (Edinburgh), Michael Fatialofa (Hurricanes), Michael Heaney (Doncaster Knights), Jono Lance (Queensland Reds), Isaac Miller (London Scottish), Farai Mudariki (Tarbes), Scott van Breda (Jersey Reds), Francois Venter (Cheetahs) and Duncan Weir (Edinburgh)
Outs: Biyi Alo (Angouléme), David Denton (Leicester Tigers), Michael Dowsett (Canon Eagles), Andrew Durutalo (Ealing Trailfinders), Grayson Hart (London Scottish), Kurt Haupt (SWD Eagles), Tom Heathcote (released), Ben Howard (England 7s), Donncha O’Callaghan (retired), Sam Olver (Ealing Trailfinders), Will Spencer (Leicester Tigers), Max Stelling (Hino Red Dolphins), Peter Stringer (retired), Huw Taylor (Dragons) and Jackson Willison (Bath)
Comments on RugbyPass
Super Rugby desperately needs to lose at least 2, but up to 4 teams. Rebels quietly going bankrupt would have made that a bit easier. Teams like the Rebels and Force serve only to weaken Australian Rugby and Super Rugby more widely. In 13 years in the comp the Rebels are yet to win more games than they lose in a season, have never finished in the top half of the competition, and have come dead last a number of times. The Western Force, barring a brief stint of mediocrity under John Mitchell from 2007-2009 have been even worse. Sadly it’s hard to see a future for Moana Pasifika in Super Rugby. Likewise I think the writing is on the wall for the Highlanders, it’s hard to see how NZ rugby can continue to support 5 SR teams, and population distribution suggests one team in the south island would make the most sense.
41 Go to commentsNice that Connor Evans is happy to stay on here, that JD Schikerling is returning and Steven Kitshoff. Dobbo is careful to bring back just anybody but having a new financial lease of life, it has made the Stormers a more attractive club. On top of being good quality, having the financial backing helps a lot
1 Go to commentsEngland-qualified too, I believe.
1 Go to commentsThis might turn out to be emblematic of a real issue in Irish rugby. Ireland have one of the best -if not the best - senior sides in the world, and one of the best under 20s sides as well, but don’t seem to be giving graduating under20s players many opportunities to break through into URC starting lineups. There is a risk that a lot of the junior talent they are developing will either be wasted, or lost to other nations.
1 Go to commentsYou ask good questions, Nick. The group who have put together the proposal to play out of Tarneit and participate in the growing of the ground’s capacity are not a bunch of white knights who have been dragged in post-crisis; they were around whilst the Rebels accummulated $23m in debt. Why do we come up with ideas that might make the franchise affordable after it’s broke and not when it might have prevented the trainwreck this offseason was? As for Gordon/Kellaway v Lolesio/Wright, they are both good options. I think the former are better rugby players but the goal kicking of Noah may be decisive when Schmiddy makes his choices. I know Harry Jones has the hots for Edmed but I think it’s one of his few poor choices and he and Jorgensen aren’t close to the other pairs. By coincidence, the wife and I went into town over the weekend to watch Brian Cox and Patricia Clarkson in Long Day’s Journey into Night. Beautifully acted but it was 3.5 hours in the chair and very hard work. Like the Rebels, there were only small bursts of joy to go with a lot of bad news and a depressing story line. In the end, I was hoping it would end and I could give my sore butt a break. Again, familiar.
41 Go to commentsGood decision, very good player but not international quality. But so was Jamison Gibson Park …..
3 Go to commentsLoose forwards always look good going forward and winning. It’s the same loose forwards for the Crusaders and the Canes this year as last year. Too much of the shiny new things getting noticed here while older consistent ones getting bagged. It’s early days. Calm the farm.
6 Go to commentsThanks Nick, and on the money. We tend to be apathetic until something REALLY BAD happens, then we aren't! At least this applies to the Reb players and coach, if not the spectators. They seem to be getting very quick ball at times. Have they altered something, or is it just all of the skills coming together at the right time? It seems almost the opposite of the Reds, who started the season with quick ball, but haven't been showing that in the last 3 losing games. Is it attitude (McDermott hasn't looked “right” to me for 3 weeks), or something else?
41 Go to commentsGood summary. As said, Sevu Reece has been electrifying for the Crusaders. Great try and he has been everywhere. Amazing he is now equal with Caleb Ralph , club record of 52 tries for the Crusaders. That record beckons. Good to see Dallas McLeod getting regular starts at last. A big few weeks are ahead.
6 Go to commentsGood article/interview.As was said Christian Lio-Willie was barnstorming when he came on for the Crusaders. What happened at the end, self-explanatory.Captain fantastic Scott Barrett is due back soon as well, once they are back from Aussie. Great to see Ethan Blackadder back last week.
1 Go to commentsYou must have been watching one team, Andrew - and even then you missed the brightest star in the Chiefs pack - Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 2 turnovers, genuine line-out presence and grunt around the field, and the soft hands of a back.
6 Go to commentsHaha what a crock of sh!t these headlines are. Moorby’s best year was that first. Still doesn’t seem to have the same game about him as when he was fresh but has bounced back well this season to be playing consistent tight accurate footy
3 Go to commentsIt’s even dumber than Bernard Foley not kicking the penalty to touch in the Melbourne Bledisloe in 2022.
3 Go to commentsYes, they are traveling well but it’s early days. The Chiefs were in front with 20 to go while they snatched a last minute win v the Reds. Keep calm.
1 Go to commentsThe failure of the Irish system / rugby playing style to produce their own backs has them looking elsewhere for innovation and flair - not that Jordie has much flair. He’s a converted fullback. The Canes have plenty of other younger options.
10 Go to comments1.Watch Wallace Sititi be the wild card AB. A genuine full time no 8 2. Luke J like Sotutu has not delivered. 3. Chiefs have all the right cattle but badly miss the leadership of Webber. LJ is about as unconvincing as Sam Cane when under the pump. They had the winning of that game in the second half then fell apart.
6 Go to commentsYes the Rebels are showing signs of life because they are literally playing for their live -lihoods and thanks to their Australian attack coach. However they are still playing an essentially dull boring south african style for the rest of the time. And Geoff Parling must be the most useless lineout coach ever. Worse than Steve Hansen even. Interestingly we are starting to see more cheap shots and attempts to get away with cheating by Australian players, now they are being influenced by Joe Schmidt. It was exactly the same when Rennie started out as Wallaby coach and thru his tenure. Trying to teach Australians to play like kiwis doesn’t work, as the last 20 years has conclusively demonstrated. Especially when we are not as good at it as kiwis. Which of course is the whole idea …..
41 Go to commentsGreat signing, not sure where he’ll fit in though. As for him ‘playing alongside RG Snyman, that’s highly debatable given the likelyhood that the latter will spend most of the season on sick leave.
10 Go to commentsWowee!
10 Go to commentsEvery team that has played a game in Africa this Champions Cup season is already out of the competition - including the SA teams. Could be a concidence.
30 Go to comments