Paul the Super Rugby Oracle's Round 3 Tips – Should We Stick With The Lions?
Stats wizard Paul Neazor informed us earlier this week that he has correctly picked 14/17 winners through the first two rounds of Super Rugby – 14/15 if you ignore his complete inability to predict the Blues. “Not to blow my own trumpet,” he emailed from his state-of-the-art stats bunker, but it was already too late. We had to shake him down for his picks for this weekend.
Blues vs Hurricanes
There are two things that make me lean towards the Blues here: the team defence has been really hard to break down, especially in the second half despite often being under urgent pressure, and the sheer physical size and speed of the Blues backs. I reckon the home team will be a little better on the day.
Pick: Blues (12 and under) [Please note: Paul is 0-2 picking the Blues this season, so the Hurricanes will almost definitely win]
Force vs Brumbies
Impossible to see anything other than a solid Brumbies win here.
Pick: Brumbies (13 and over)
Highlanders vs Lions
This should be the match of the round – the dark horse Lions squaring off against the defending champs. If there’s one factor that may be decisive, it’s understanding how to play under the Dunedin roof and the home side obviously has that edge. Add Jamie Joseph’s substitution plan – get them all in there with enough time to get up to game speed, and then finish over the top – and the Highlanders should have just enough to get up by one score in a high-scoring match.
Pick: Highlanders (12 and under)
Rebels vs Reds
The Rebels’ body clocks will still be spinning in three different directions after flying to South Africa and back in the last week. They’re lucky to be at home to the Reds, who would be just about everyone’s first choice to play under such circumstances. The Rebels have played well in patches during both their matches, and should manage to get the points this week.
Pick: Rebels (12 and under)
Sunwolves vs Cheetahs
If the forecast holds, conditions in Singapore will be similar to playing in Brisbane or Durban on a particularly unpleasant day for footy – 32 degrees, with electrical storms and rain. Good luck to both teams trying to control the ball in that. This could be a scrappy affair, but I’m still picking the Cheetahs to win by plenty.
Pick: Cheetahs (13 and over)
Kings vs Chiefs
It’s almost impossible to underestimate the Kings, who simply aren’t very good, and the Chiefs should be in the mood to put them to the sword after a frustrating loss last weekend. The visitors have scored four tries in each match so far (no bonus points though), so should have little trouble opening up what is one of the leakiest defences in the whole competition.
Pick: Chiefs (13 and over)
Stormers vs Sharks
Most will see this match as the early pointer towards which of these teams will end up as the top South African contender, although I fancy the Lions may yet have a bit to say about that. I’m not expecting an open or even greatly entertaining game, but I’m expecting another win for the Stormers at the end of it.
Pick: Stormers (12 and under)
Comments on RugbyPass
The value he brought to the crusaders as an assistant was equal to what he got out of being there. He reflected not only on the team culture but also the credit he attributed to the rugby community. Such experience shouldn’t be overlooked.
3 Go to commentsGood luck Aussie
10 Go to commentssmith at 9 / mounga 10 / laumape 12 / fainganuku 14
45 Go to commentsBar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to commentsDon’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
10 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to commentsTo me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
45 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
3 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
45 Go to commentsAh, good to find you Nick. Agree with everything about Cale. So much to like about his game
51 Go to commentsNot too bad. Questions at 6, lock and HB for me. The ABs will be a lot stronger once Jordan and Roigard return. Also, work needs to be made to secure Frizzell back for next season and maybe also Mo’unga; they’re just wasting time playing in japan
45 Go to commentsOn the title, i wonder for many of those people it is a case something like a belief in working smarter, not harder?
1 Go to commentsForget Sotutu. One of those whose top level is Super Rugby. Id take a punt on Wallace Sititi Finau ahead of Glass body Blackadder.
45 Go to commentsI’m a pensioner so I've been around a bit. My opinion of SBW is he is an elite athlete and a great New Zealander and roll model. He has been to the top and knows what he's talking about. To all the negative comments regarding SBW the typical New Zealand way, cut that tall poppy down.
17 Go to commentsI'm not listening to a guy moralise over others when this is the guy who walked out mid season on Canterbury RLFC when he had a contract with them, what a hypocrite. All the Kiwis sticking up for this unprincipled individual because they can't accept justified criticism, he has zero credibility or integrity. Those praising him are a joke.
17 Go to commentsI’d put Finau at 6 instead of Blackadder but that’s the only change I’d make. Can’t wait to see who Razor picks.
45 Go to commentsTamati Williams, Codie Taylor, and Same Cane? Not sure about Hoskins Sotutu at test level. Wasn’t that impressive last season. Need a balance between experience and talent/youth.
45 Go to commentsInteresting insight. Fantastic athlete, and a genuine human being.
17 Go to commentsThey played at night in Suva last weekend and it’s an afternoon game forecast for 19 degrees in Canberra this weekend. Heat change is a non issue.
2 Go to commentsWishing Rosie a speedy recovery
1 Go to comments