Northern Edition

Select Edition

Northern Northern
Southern Southern
Global Global
New Zealand New Zealand
France France

Paul the Super Rugby Oracle's Round 3 Tips – Should We Stick With The Lions?

elton

Stats wizard Paul Neazor informed us earlier this week that he has correctly picked 14/17 winners through the first two rounds of Super Rugby – 14/15 if you ignore his complete inability to predict the Blues. “Not to blow my own trumpet,” he emailed from his state-of-the-art stats bunker, but it was already too late. We had to shake him down for his picks for this weekend.

ADVERTISEMENT

Blues vs Hurricanes
There are two things that make me lean towards the Blues here: the team defence has been really hard to break down, especially in the second half despite often being under urgent pressure, and the sheer physical size and speed of the Blues backs. I reckon the home team will be a little better on the day.
Pick: Blues (12 and under) [Please note: Paul is 0-2 picking the Blues this season, so the Hurricanes will almost definitely win]

Force vs Brumbies
Impossible to see anything other than a solid Brumbies win here.
Pick: Brumbies (13 and over)

Highlanders vs Lions
This should be the match of the round – the dark horse Lions squaring off against the defending champs. If there’s one factor that may be decisive, it’s understanding how to play under the Dunedin roof and the home side obviously has that edge. Add Jamie Joseph’s substitution plan – get them all in there with enough time to get up to game speed, and then finish over the top – and the Highlanders should have just enough to get up by one score in a high-scoring match.
Pick: Highlanders (12 and under)

Rebels vs Reds
The Rebels’ body clocks will still be spinning in three different directions after flying to South Africa and back in the last week. They’re lucky to be at home to the Reds, who would be just about everyone’s first choice to play under such circumstances. The Rebels have played well in patches during both their matches, and should manage to get the points this week.
Pick: Rebels (12 and under)

Sunwolves vs Cheetahs
If the forecast holds, conditions in Singapore will be similar to playing in Brisbane or Durban on a particularly unpleasant day for footy – 32 degrees, with electrical storms and rain. Good luck to both teams trying to control the ball in that. This could be a scrappy affair, but I’m still picking the Cheetahs to win by plenty.
Pick: Cheetahs (13 and over)

Kings vs Chiefs
It’s almost impossible to underestimate the Kings, who simply aren’t very good, and the Chiefs should be in the mood to put them to the sword after a frustrating loss last weekend. The visitors have scored four tries in each match so far (no bonus points though), so should have little trouble opening up what is one of the leakiest defences in the whole competition.
Pick: Chiefs (13 and over)

ADVERTISEMENT

Stormers vs Sharks
Most will see this match as the early pointer towards which of these teams will end up as the top South African contender, although I fancy the Lions may yet have a bit to say about that. I’m not expecting an open or even greatly entertaining game, but I’m expecting another win for the Stormers at the end of it.
Pick: Stormers (12 and under)

ADVERTISEMENT

LIVE

{{item.title}}

Trending on RugbyPass

Comments

0 Comments
Be the first to comment...

Join free and tell us what you really think!

Sign up for free
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest Features

Comments on RugbyPass

J
JW 54 minutes ago
All Black star Richie Mo'unga stuck in stalemate in Japan

Richie is a great passer too, don't get me wrong. But if I'm picking Mo'unga's direct attack were he threatened the desences in 23' by having the ball in both hands, or Dmac's 24' backline where theyre super deep and he has to run sideways doing skip passes, I choose the 23 backline.


As a first five, Dmac has no threat on the carry, he's too small to bust through, that's why you don't see him try it like Mo'unga does. Dmac can still try to carry (when he should just give it to someone else) as his bailout option when under pressure, but thankfully with the forward dominance it's not so much an occurrence/issue.


Somehow Spew, but we haven't seen that because of the Dmac issue I outlined. It's generally the 10 that doubles around. I don't trust Jordies instincts at doing it either, even in his role of laying it back I don't think he's the one. So while I agree it's a powerful attacking play I don't think it's an option for the All Blacks either. Rieko just hasn't been able to catch the ball, it's pretty much his only problem. You can't see that changing though. I'd imagine they just can that play as something theyre not capable of too rather than change people in and out.


I perhaps go for something more simple, like runners from deep coming into the line at different angles. No so much about width like they were last year, just simple inside or out passes to Clarke/Jordan/Telea straitening the line. We want to see something different happen this year because if its the same I think we'll all be calling for heads again.

13 Go to comments
LONG READ
LONG READ Mick Cleary: 'England are back in the fight, no longer the object of scorn.' Mick Cleary: 'England are back in the fight, no longer the object of scorn.'
Search