Paul the Super Rugby Oracle’s Round 13 Tips: The Blues Will Bounce Back
Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend’s round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.
Like a true tipping mastermind, Paul bounced back from a horrible Round 11 to record a creditable 7/8 correct picks in Round 12. The only blot on his record was the unpickable 17-17 draw played out between the Sunwolves and Stormers. His overall season record now stands at 70/93 for a solid 75%. Here’s what Round 13 has in store.
Crusaders vs Waratahs
Although this one will be given the big build-up in Australia, I can’t see why it should be particularly difficult for the Crusaders. They can cover all the Waratahs strengths with power of their own, they can make the play faster than any of the Waratahs’ recent opponents, and they are most certainly a step up in class from the outfits the Sydneysiders have been facing recently (who have mainly come from South Africa). Add in the fact they’ll be filthy about getting a belting down at Dunedin, that they will know their place at the top of the ladder is at some risk, that it’s a special night for Wyatt Crockett (who sets a new record for most Super rugby matches for one team) and Andy Ellis (150th Crusaders match, including 149 in Super rugby) and that they simply like thumping the Waratahs, and I can see a decent margin for the home side at the end of it all.
Pick: Crusaders (13 and over)
Reds vs Sunwolves
Let’s be honest: neither side is much chop, both have been losing rather a lot lately and the Reds, unlike a number of the Sunwolves’ other opponents, cannot afford to take them even a bit lightly. But you can forget that draw against the Stormers, who were bloody awful. This game is against an opponent who won’t be swanning about in an interesting and new city, and it won’t be played on an undersized field – and do not underestimate the importance of that. The Reds can rely on their set piece, and they do actually have a few backs who will find holes out wide. Despite their poor record this season, I see no reason why the home side shouldn’t win and win well.
Pick: Reds (13 and over)
Chiefs vs Rebels
This match is in the same boat as several others this weekend: one team should win comfortably if they pay attention. Since the Chiefs (who are that side) have had two weeks to puke about losing to the Highlanders, and the Rebels are now battling in matches against real playoff candidates instead of running off a series of wins against sub-par opposition, there’s no reason why the Chiefs shouldn’t take control early and pile up the points.
Pick: Chiefs (13 and over)
Force vs Blues
As usual, a match at Perth is an unpleasant part of the trip home from South Africa. The Force is comprised of a gnarly bunch of sods who will push everything to the limit, slow the game down absolutely as much as they are allowed to, kill the ball, drive the opposition nutty and, quite possibly, get away with it. Simply on talent the Blues are better but you may not believe that if you watched the whole performance at Johannesburg, which was bad at the start, bad in the middle and bad at the end. The good news is that the Force are not the Lions. The bad news is that they’re still a pain in the butt. But the Blues should eventually find a way to win.
Pick: Blues (12 and under)
Lions vs Jaguares
In Johannesburg this game should be a no-brainer: the Lions, on last week’s showing, are just getting into full stride and they looked pretty damned good. The Jaguares had yet another of those games they should have won but didn’t, and for the same reasons as before: dropped ball, an uncertainty over how to go about winning, missed goal kicks and too many penalties. Any or all those things will kill them against the Lions. Throw in pending suspensions for two leading forwards in Agustin Creevy and Leonardo Senatore, and this could be a miserable old afternoon for the Jaguares.
Pick: Lions (13 and over)
Sharks vs Kings
I see no need to be too expansive about this prediction: the Sharks will win, and win easily, because they tackle everything in sight, kick their goals, don’t give anything away free and they’re miserable sods who have a chip on every shoulder. The Kings have none of the aforementioned qualities.
Pick: Sharks (13 and over)
Bulls vs Stormers
The Bulls, for all their good early record, compiled it against the competition nobodies. More recently they’ve run into a few somebodies and hit a wall as a result. They have scored 14 points in a fortnight including just the one try, have given up 54, and not convinced anyone that those numbers do them a disservice. The Stormers got out of Singapore with a lucky draw – the Sunwolves should have put them away with five minutes to play, but didn’t – and they won’t be in the mood for any charity since they’ve also lost top spot in the combined South African conferences. If the Stormers win this one they will just about put the South Africa 1 conference to bed. It won’t be pretty or imaginative, but they are good enough and should manage to complete the task.
Pick: Stormers (12 and under)
Comments on RugbyPass
late hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
1 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusades , you can keep going.
1 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
4 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
24 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
24 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
24 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
24 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
9 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
9 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
28 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
24 Go to comments