Paul the Super Rugby Oracle’s Round 12 Tips: The Highlanders Will 100% Definitely Beat the Crusaders
Rugby Pass stats guru Paul Neazor weighs up this weekend’s round of Super Rugby matches and reveals his tips.
Paul disappointed us all and brought great shame on his family by incorrectly predicting three games in Round 11, his worst tipping week to date. 4/7 picks takes his season record to 63/85 to bring his percentage down to 74%. He is deeply remorseful and has promised to do better this week.
Highlanders vs Crusaders
The decibel rating at Forsyth Barr Stadium will be through the roof, literally – no doubt the noise from this game will be able to be heard for some distance. The defending champs appear to have gotten over their two-game glitch that saw them lose to both the Reds and Sharks, while the Crusaders are playing like the immediate pretenders to the throne. Both teams have most parts of their game working very well: the Crusaders showed they can be deadly with minimal possession but I doubt the Highlanders defence will be as soft as the Reds’. The Highlanders also showed they can make something out of nothing, and also tackle as if the fate of the Western world depended on it. That win in Hamilton was hugely impressive, and makes picking this one really tough as you could make a convincing case for either. I might lean towards the Highlanders on the strength of recent opponents, but it’s a game I’d much rather watch than bet on.
Pick: Highlanders (12 and under)
Rebels vs Brumbies
I think this might be the beginning of the end for the Rebels, who over-achieved through the easy part of their draw but now find the going is about to get a hell of a lot tougher. The Brumbies might not have turned on the style against the Bulls but they were clinical and efficient, and that has been enough to see the Rebels off each time they’ve been confronted with it this year. All the Brumbies need to do is study the tapes of the Highlanders and Hurricanes when they visited Melbourne, Ctrl C, Ctrl V, repeat. Anything other than a decent Brumbies win will be a surprise.
Pick: Brumbies (13 and over)
Hurricanes vs Reds
The Hurricanes got a pummeling from the Sharks, who forced them into a ton of errors they normally don’t make. That included getting turned over at the breakdown almost half as many times in one game as they had been in the previous eight, creating handling errors through pressure and doing a job on the lineout. That’s three things for the coaching staff to get grumpy about, and there was enough wrong in each case to keep them grumpy all week. The Reds got a hiding in Christchurch, and weren’t good enough to ever threaten to escape from it. They won’t escape from the Hurricanes either; I’m expecting a large win for the home side.
Pick: Hurricanes (13 and over)
Waratahs vs Bulls
We saw the trailer for this game twice last weekend, in both Canberra and Sydney. It could be ugly. It will, most likely, send the majority of us to sleep. It could result in lots of reset scrums, lots of penalties, very little creative play and lots of calls of “advantage!” Am I excited by the prospect? No, not at all. But I think the Waratahs may have cause to be interested, as a win here will move them right into challenging position for the playoffs and, I suspect, be necessary for them to stay on the Brumbies’ tail. Given that the home side does at least have imagination, even if skill levels are not always up to par, I give them every chance of success in this one.
Pick: Waratahs (12 and under)
Sunwolves vs Stormers
Last time these sides met the Stormers won easily. This time they will be playing to stay on top in their conference – I bet I’m not the only person surprised at how long the Bulls have hung in there, and the Stormers want to see them off. Results this weekend might go a long way towards achieving that. The Sunwolves will try hard, make the usual mistakes, get hammered by the very good Stormers set piece and the visitors will win handsomely.
Pick: Stormers (13 and over)
Cheetahs vs Kings
The game is on the schedule so it has to be played, but do we really have to watch it? I think the Cheetahs will win it and win it well enough, because everyone is beating up on the Kings at the moment and there’s no reason to suspect that’s going to stop any time soon.
Pick: Cheetahs (13 and over)
Lions vs Blues
This could be a good match, or it could get a little raggedy. Both sides have it in them to provide a fast-paced affair that may prove to be one of the more entertaining contests of the week. Blues teams have a decent record at Johannesburg, even if their recent form against the Lions has been patchy, and the speed of games on the high veldt would seem to suit their style. The Lions will run all day, and if the Blues make mistakes they’ll make them pay – they’ve done that to several sides this year already. But if the Blues play a controlled game as the Hurricanes or Crusaders did, they can squeeze the life out of the home side. The Lions have sneaked up the rails this year and I don’t think their run is over yet. I still have a few reservations, but I think the home side should get up in this one. It could be a hell of a ride.
Pick: Lions (12 and under)
Jaguares vs Sharks
This match should be quite easy to forecast. If the Sharks defend as well as they did against the Hurricanes, and if they play even half the clever rugby they produced in that game, they win this easily. They impressed in almost every area against the Hurricanes, not least in their ability to force turnovers, an area which has been a season-long failing for the Jaguares. That monster loose trio of theirs will slam the door, and Patrick Lambie can get on with the decoration.
Pick: Sharks (13 and over)
Comments on RugbyPass
Beautiful shot from Finau, end of story. Gutted for Shaun Stevenson though.
4 Go to commentsThe Chiefs definitely didn’t win ugly. They had the superior scrum, a dominant lineout, and their defence was excellent once the Waratahs scored their two tries (thanks to some lucky refereeing calls mind you). They put pressure on the Waratahs lineout throughout the game, and the mind boggles as to why the referee did not award a yellow card or a penalty try against the Waratahs for repeated scrum infringements on their own try line before Narawa’s first try. And the Chiefs were slick with their passing and running angles on attack. It was a dominant performance all round, even with many questionable refereeing decisions.
1 Go to commentsWasnt late. Ref 2 assistants andTMO all saw it so who are you to say it was?
4 Go to commentsAre the Brumbies playing the Blues twice in a row?
4 Go to commentsBig difference from the Saders. Forwards really muscled up and laid a solid platform. Scooter brought some steel and I liked the loosie combination. Newell has been rather disappointing this season but stepped up big time - happy also to see Franks dot down. He should do that more often! Reihana had a good game and there seems to be more flair and invention with him in the saddle. McNicoll plays well from the back and is reliable plus inventive when he joins the line. Keep it up chaps!
3 Go to comments🤦♂️🤣 who cares who’s the best . All I know is the All Blacks have the star coach but have few star players now …
30 Go to commentsJe suis sûr que Farrell est impatient de jouer avec Lopez et Machenaud et d’être entraîné par Collazo… 🤭
1 Go to commentsAn on field red (aka a full red) in SRP must surely carry a bigger suspension than a red card given by the bunker as that carries a 20 minute team punishment. Had Damon Murphy abdicated his responsibility as a ref and issued both Drua players a yellow, which would have been upgraded to a 20 minute red by the bunker, that would have killed Australia and New Zealand’s push for the 20 minute red to be trialled globally from July this year.
11 Go to commentsEver so often you all post a Danny Care story that isn’t the announcement that he has finally re-signed for one more, victory tour season at Quins and I’m just like, “well you fooled me again!” My absolute favorite player ever, we need to make his final year at the Stoop (and Twickers) official already. I know he supposedly snubbed France but I won’t feel better until he signs.
1 Go to commentslate hit what late hit it wasn’t at all late and can clearly see he was committed before the tackle
4 Go to commentsChristian Lio -Willies 2 try perfomance was a standout. As was captain Scott Barrett. Up front was where the boys won it.They are a great team and players. Fantastic Crusaders , you can keep going.
3 Go to commentsI don't know how the locals feel about that? I guess if you call yourselves the Worcester Wasps that might be appease. But really we need more teams in the Premiership in my view so they are not padding it out as they are at the moment. It might curtail so many players going abroad as well
5 Go to commentsNZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
30 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
30 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
30 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to comments