Deep parallels to 2010 for the All Blacks ahead of South Africa

2009 was a great year for South African rugby.

It was the year they conquered everyone, from a 2-1 series win in the famous British & Irish Lions tour, to a 3-0 ‘black-wash’ over the All Blacks on the way to a Tri Nations title. After winning the Rugby World Cup in 2007, by 2009 the Boks were sailing high.

The first two Tests at home against New Zealand the boot of Morne Steyn fuelled points while an uncompromising defence and kick pressure choked the All Blacks out of the games.

When the two teams arrived in Hamilton for the third and final match up of the year, the Springboks again stunned Graham Henry’s side with long range penalties and tries against the run of play to secure a 32-29 win.

It was crisis mode for the All Blacks that triggered an introspective look at the team’s tactics, selections and operations. From a kick-heavy game in 2009, they adopted a more expansive, high-risk game with higher tempo and greater emphasis on the breakdown the next year.

16 years later, there are many parallels between then and now, with the two teams in similar predicaments.

The Springboks, riding high as the world number one after two years of dominance, are being talked up as ‘unbeatable’ once again.

The All Blacks, having only managed one win from the last four against South Africa since the last World Cup, are not being given a chance to win the upcoming series.

They’ve axed the coach halfway through the cycle, installed a new playing style and staff, while also picking a host of young players to build around. Rennie has focused on building cohesion in July, sticking with key selections like Ruben Love at No.10.

By contrast the 2026 Springboks has a veteran side full of World Cup winners and a widened playing base with the most players used in July of any nation. Obsessed with building depth, the Boks boast large numbers of capped players.

But in hindsight, 2009 was the peak for the Springboks as they begun to reach the proverbial cliff.

The 2010 All Blacks actually reversed the 3-0 scoreline from the year before, beating South Africa 32-12 at Eden Park, 31-17 in Wellington and then the last-gasp 29-22 win in Johannesburg to complete the sweep with rookie fullback Israel Dagg diving over after a Ma’a Nonu break on the buzzer.

The tactical improvements saw the All Blacks use greater ball movement and pace to score far more tries against the Boks than the year before.

The crop of debutants that year featured Dagg, Colin Slade, Victor Vito, Sam Whitelock, Aaron Cruden, and Sonny Bill Williams. All of whom played a key part in the 2011 Rugby World Cup victory.

The Springboks won just one game from six in the 2010 Tri-Nations, slumping to a disastrous record with an aging core. From that point on, they stumbled their way to the next Rugby World Cup and were eventually dumped out by Australia.

Few would predict that fate for the 2026 Springboks based on their current standing, but at the same point in time in the cycle towards the 2011 Rugby World Cup they were in the exact same place.

A popular war strategy from Sun Tzu in the Art of War is “when you are weak, appear strong, and when you are strong, appear weak”.

Springboks head coach Rassie Erasmus is definitely trying to appear strong in recent times.

Battling a long list of injuries ahead of the Nations Championship window, he sprung a surprise on England by naming Eben Etzbeth and Siya Kolisi to start.

Neither did play of course, with Kolisi and Etzebeth pulled from the match. Both failed to feature a single time in July. So they were “good to go” and suddenly pulled from the entire July fixtures. “When you are weak appear strong.”

Erasmus has also been offering bullish comments on his star flyhalf’s return from injury too, Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, aiming for a return against Argentina one month earlier than the original timeframe. What’s the bet he’s named to play and pulled from the line-up just like Etzebeth and Kolisi?

Kolisi’s replacement Paul de Villers played all three games and took to Test Rugby like a duck to water. The Springboks of course were playing the two worst Six Nations teams, Wales and England, and ended up being outplayed by Scotland with the defence conceding a whopping 15 line breaks. De Villiers, like many others, looked like a rock stars against the bottom half of the Six Nations.

The Springboks were officially the slowest team in all the Nations Championship fixtures in July.

Opta confirmed their ruck speed at a pedestrian 4.23 seconds per ruck in July, the lowest of the 12 nations. New Zealand came in third with 2.95 seconds behind France (2.93) and Ireland (2.91). Yet when starter Cam Roigard was on the field, the All Blacks clocked 2.90 seconds per ruck which would best Ireland’s mark.

The Springboks are playing a slow game. The All Blacks want to play at lightening speed. This will be the struggle of the series, who controls the tempo.

The 2010 All Blacks successfully evolved their game and Rennie’s side in 2026 is trying to do the same. The man who orchestrated that 2010 revival, Graham Henry, is back on the All Blacks selection panel.

Erasmus is trying to look strong while actually being depleted of his aging veterans. History might not repeat but it does rhyme, and it feels a bit like 2010 in 2026.