Make or break: How many new faces will make the All Blacks end-of-year squad?
The All Blacks squad for the 2018 end-of-year tour is set to be announced at 1pm Monday NZT, and with up to 51 players to be used on their tour to Asia and Europe, fans can anticipate a huge influx of raw talent to don the black jersey at some stage throughout October and November.
Steve Hansen will take a core squad of 32 players with him for the duration of their travels, but with back-to-back games in Japan against the Wallabies and Brave Blossoms, followed by consecutive juggernaut battles against England and Ireland, an alternative approach to squad selection has been taken this time round.
All 32 core players will head to Japan to face Australia in Yokohama on October 27th, but in a bid to keep his frontline players fresh for the tests in London and Dublin, a further 19 players will be shipped in from New Zealand for the clash against Japan in Tokyo on November 3rd .
That will allow 22 of the core squad to jet off to Europe a week early to prepare for the matches against England and Ireland.
From a squad prediction standpoint, it makes life particularly difficult.
Not only will the question be asked of who the 32 core players will be, but also who will the additional 19 players be for the Japan test?
To establish that core squad, here is my pick for the 32 frontline players that will head to Japan for the third Bledisloe.
Alex McLeod’s predicted 32-man All Blacks squad northern hemisphere tour:
Owen Franks, Joe Moody, Tim Perry, Karl Tu’inukuafe, Ofa Tu’ungafasi, Dane Coles, Nathan Harris, Codie Taylor, Scott Barrett, Brodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Shannon Frizell, Dillon Hunt, Kieran Read (c), Ardie Savea, Liam Squire, Luke Whitelock, TJ Perenara, Aaron Smith, Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, Beauden Barrett, Damian McKenzie, Richie Mo’unga, Ryan Crotty, Jack Goodhue, Anton Lienert-Brown, Sonny Bill Williams, Jordie Barrett, Rieko Ioane, Nehe Milner-Skudder, Waisake Naholo, Ben Smith.
The best way to go about answering that second question would not be to try and depict which is the most formidable side the All Blacks could muster and pick the individuals that would travel to Europe early, but rather acknowledge how many players from each position would depart the Japan-based camp after the Wallabies test.
Given that 22 players will head to London before the Japan clash, it should be most of the match-day squad that Steve Hansen anticipates on selecting for the England and Ireland tests that will jet off early.
Taking into account the relative lack of depth and experience at first-five in the squad, it seems likely that only one playmaker – Beauden Barrett – will travel to the British capital to allow his understudies – Richie Mo’unga and Damian McKenzie – to further develop their test match credentials in more comfortable surroundings.
Therefore, there should be four props (two loosehead, two tighthead), two hookers, three locks, four loose forwards, two halfbacks, one first five, three midfielders and three outside backs who depart the camp a week early.
This positional makeup of players who will leave early forms a rough blueprint of how many players from each position will be brought in from New Zealand to provide cover for the clash in Tokyo.
So, who will those 19 players be?
A substantial opening will form for fringe players in the prop department to prove their worth.
Expect Angus Ta’avao to receive another call-up in the wake of his shock debut against Argentina a few weeks ago.
He should be joined by whoever is omitted from the core squad out of Nepo Laulala and Tim Perry, while Jeff Toomaga-Allen can expect a re-call after failing to take to the field despite being named for the French series.
There should be enough room among the extra 19 players to include a bolter within the props, and that title could belong to any one of Michael Ala’alatoa, Daniel Lienert-Brown, or Tyrel Lomax.
All three have proven themselves to be players of great promise, with the former two impressing at Super Rugby level for numerous seasons now.
Kane Hames and Atu Moli would have been considered for call-ups if it were not for long-term concussion and leg injuries, respectively.
A duo of hookers could be called up to replace the pair of rakes – most likely Dane Coles and Codie Taylor – who will probably fly to London early.
Liam Coltman is the leading candidate to fill one of the voids, while it will be interesting to see who the selectors pick out of Asafo Aumua and Ricky Riccitelli.
Both have plenty to offer, which has been recognised in the form of two non-test appearances for Aumua and several training squad call ups for Riccitelli, so it will have been a real arm wrestle of a debate as to who to include.
If all three locks leave early, expect an overhaul in the second row for the Japan match. Jackson Hemopo could get a run there, but that will not stop Patrick Tuipulotu and Luke Romano receiving promotions back into the side.
Another big influx could ensue in the loose forwards.
There could be as many as three new faces coming into the side considering the potential number of departures in the position, and it is likely each player would come in to fill each specific position within the loose forward role.
One would expect Vaea Fifita to be called in to cover blindside, while Akira Ioane – should he miss out on a spot in the core squad – would be almost guaranteed the covering No. 8 position.
James Lentjes could be the best left standing in New Zealand to help at openside flanker, though it seems Dalton Papali’i has been earmarked as a future All Black following his energetic displays for a revitalised Auckland outfit this year.
Bryn Hall is reportedly the All Blacks’ next port of call at halfback should any one of Aaron Smith, TJ Perenara or Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi go down, so the Crusaders and Harbour man can expect a first-time call-up.
He may be joined by one of either Brad Weber or Mitchell Drummond, both of whom will be looking to add to their one match each in All Blacks colours.
In the midfield, Ngani Laumape will be a shoo-in to earn a re-call if he misses out on the core 32.
With all the hype that surrounded his breakout Super Rugby campaign, Laumape’s Manawatu teammate Rob Thompson must not be too far off from All Blacks selection, so an appearance from the 27-year-old would be unsurprising.
The sparkling form of Matt Faddes for Otago has generated intrigue around the 26-year-old utility back that has not been seen since his debut season with the Highlanders in 2016, so his inclusion among the 19 replacements would be warranted.
Finally, in the outside backs, there are an array of players that could slot into the All Blacks set-up with ease, but leading the race for selection is George Bridge and Solomon Alaimalo.
Both men have been sublime in 2018, and should oust the likes of Ben Lam and Will Jordan, despite the brilliance shown by those two domestically.
Alex McLeod’s predicted 19-man cover squad for Japan test:
Tyrel Lomax, Nepo Laulala, Angus Ta’avao, Jeff Toomaga-Allen, Liam Coltman, Ricky Riccitelli, Jackson Hemopo, Luke Romano, Patrick Tuipulotu, Vaea Fifita, Akira Ioane, Dalton Papali’i, Bryn Hall, Brad Weber, Matt Faddes, Ngani Laumape, Rob Thompson, Solomon Alaimalo, George Bridge.
All Blacks tour schedule (local times):
vs Australia at Nissan Stadium, Yokohama on October 27
vs Japan at Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo on November 3
vs England at Twickenham, London on November 10
vs Ireland at Aviva Stadium, Dublin on November 17
vs Italy at Stadio Olimpico, Rome on November 24
In other news:
Comments on RugbyPass
Great insight into the performance culture with Sarries and I predict Christie will be a fixture in the Scotland team now for some time to come. However, he is slightly missing his own point around Scotland “being soft” when he cites physicality examples in defence of that slight. The issue is much closer to the example he referenced around feeling off before a game but being told “it doesn’t matter, you can still play well” by Farrell. Until Scotland can get their psyche in that square, they will carry on folding under extreme pressure…
1 Go to comments> We are having to adapt, evolve and innovate more than when we were in Super Rugby where there was only really one style that everybody had to play to gain the most success. Have = able to? Interesting what that one style might be? I thought SA sides still had bad tours now, or at least bad schedule, months away? Those extra few hours flights have to be a killer though, no surprise to see their sides doing so badly at the start of the season each year. I wouldn’t enjoy that unfairness as a supporter.
4 Go to commentsThe problem for NZ, and Aus, is they ripped up the SR model and lost a massive chunk of revenue that hasn’t been replaced. Don’t forget SA clubs went North because they were left with no choice, Argy unceremoniously binned and Japan cast adrift. Now SR wasn’t perfect, far from it, but they’ve jumped into something without an effective plan, so far, to replace what they’ve lost. The biggest revenue potential now lies in Japan but it won’t be easy or quick to unlock, they are incredibly insular in culture as a nation. In the meantime, there is a serious time bomb sitting under SH rugby and if it happens then the current financial challenges will look like a picnic. IF the Boks follow their provincial teams and head north then it’s revenue meltdown. Not guaranteed to happen but the status quo is a very odd hybrid, with the Boks pointing one way and the clubs pointing the other way. And for as long as that remains then the threat is real.
35 Go to commentsI think Etene has had some good tuition, likely while at the Warriors to be a professional that helped his rugby jump, but he was certainly thrown in the deep end way too early. Should have arguably 20 less SR caps, and therefor a way better record that he does at his age, but his development would have been fast tracked by the need to satiate his signing away from league. Again, credit to him and others that he has done it so well. Easy to fall over under that pressure in the big leagues like that but he kept at it when I myself wasn’t sure he was good enough.
1 Go to commentsAwesome story. I wonder what a bigger American (SA) scene might have mean for Brex.
1 Go to comments“Johnny McNicholl and the Crusaders” save a Penney. Who has been in camp this week and showed them how to play?
5 Go to commentsSo, reports of the Crusaders’ demise / terminal decline are perhaps just - slightly - premature/exaggerated…? 🤔 Will we see a deep-dive into that by the estimable Rugbypass scribes, and maybe one or two mea culpas? Thought not.
5 Go to comments1. The Chiefs are rudderless without DMac, which enhances his AB chances 2. Chiefs pack are powderpuffs. The hard men arent there anymore 3. They had their golden title chance last yr and wont threaten this yr. Gone in second round of playoffs.
5 Go to commentsHonestly, why did you have to publish such a foolish article the day they play us? 😂
35 Go to comments> They are not standalone entities. They are linked to an amateur association which holds the FFR licence that allows the professional side to compete in the league. That’s a great rule. This looks like the chicken or egg professional scenario. How long is it going to be before the club can break even (if that is even a thing in French rugby)? If the locals aren’t into well it would be good to se them drop to amateur level (is it that far?). Hope they can reset from this level and be more practical, there will be a time when they can rebuild (if France has there setup right).
1 Go to commentsWhat about changing the ball? To something heavier and more pointed that bounces unpredictably. Not this almost round football used these days.
35 Go to commentsThis is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?
35 Go to commentsWow, didn’t realise there was such apathy to URC in SA, or by Champions Cup teams. Just read Nick’s article on Crusaders, are Sharks a similar circumstance? I think SA rugby has been far more balanced than NZs, no?
3 Go to commentsBut here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.
35 Go to commentsIt could be coincidental or prescient that the All Blacks most dominant period under Steve Hansen was when the Crusaders had their least successful period under Todd Blackadder and then the positions reversed when Razor took over the Crusaders.
35 Go to commentsDefinitely sound read everybodyexpects immediate results these days, I don't think any team would travel well at all having lost three of the most important game changers in the game,compiled with the massive injury list they are now carrying, good to see a different more in depth perspective of a coaches history.
3 Go to commentsSinckler is a really big loss for English rugby.
2 Go to commentsThanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause
35 Go to commentsNo way. If you are trying to picture New Zealand rugby with an All Blacks mindset, there have been two factors instrumental to the decline of NZ rugby to date. Those are the horror that the Blues have become and, probably more so, the fixture that the Crusaders became. I don’t think it was healthy to have one team so dominant for so long, both for lack of proper representation of players from outside that environment and on the over reliance on players from within it. If you are another international side, like Ireland for example, sure. You can copy paste something succinct from one level to the next and experience a huge increase in standards, but ultimately you will not be maximizing it, which is what you need to perform to the level the ABs do. Added to that is the apathy that develops in the whole game as a result of one sides dominance. NZ, Super, and Championship rugby should all experience a boom as a result of things balancing out. That said, there is a lot of bad news happening in NZ rugby recently, and I’m not sure the game can be handled well enough here to postpone the always-there feeling of inevitable decline of rugby.
35 Go to commentsNo SA supporter miss Super Rugby - a product that is experiencing significant head wind in ANZ - the competition from rival codes are intense, match attendance figures are at a historical low and the negativity of commentators such as Kirwan and Wilson have accelerated the downward spiral in NZ. After the next RWC in 2027 sponsors will follow Qantas and start leaving in droves.
4 Go to comments