LONG READ 'Expect the unexpected' - Ireland v France big match preview part one

Expect the unexpected. It was the big theme of my correspondence with Sir Graham Henry immediately prior to a momentous World Cup final in 2011 between the All Blacks and France. The All Blacks had overcome the same opponents at the pool stage comfortably, but a final against New Zealand’s bête noir from the same tournament four years earlier was always going to be very different.

By the denouement, New Zealand hopes were hanging by a thread and Ted’s fingernails had been worn down to the bone. It will be the same when France meet Ireland in the first round of the Six Nations this Thursday. Those who expect an automatic repeat of Les Bleus’ 42-27 rout of the then-champions last year will leave Stade de France disappointed. They may even leave empty-handed.

The final scoreline suggests an overwhelming win, but one year before, Ireland had returned the compliment with a thumping 38-17 victory at Stade Velodrome in Marseille. There are no mulligans in this fixture. Expect the unexpected.

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The atmosphere of uncertainty is heightened by the toxic background of two demanding mid-year tours in July. Fabien Galthié’s France squad visited New Zealand without most of their top players after a punishing league schedule. Many of them featured in the Top 14 final between Stade Toulousain and Union Bordeaux-Bègles on 28 June, only one week before the first Test in Dunedin.

Galthié was caught between a rock and a hard place. If he had been able to pick the 23-man matchday squad which finished the Six Nations with a win over Scotland, 21 of those players would have exceeded one or both of his player welfare guidelines of 25 games and/or 2000 minutes played. As it was, the so-called ‘B’ team which pitched up at the Forsyth-Barr Stadium still contained 17 players who broke the same rules.

Valiantly as the French supremo tried to stitch a new team together around a new set of player-welfare red-liners – Mickael Guillard, Hugo Auradou, Nolann Le Garrec, Gael Fickou and Theo Attissogbe – for the three-Test series in the land of long white cloud, the attempt was doomed to failure from the start. Les Bleus lost 3-0, and that as much as anything cost them a winning momentum in November.

France were shattered in the second half of their opening fixture against the 14-man world champion Springboks, and they never pieced together a dominating, comprehensive performance thereafter.

Where Galthié has to rediscover his best team all over again, Ireland head coach Andy Farrell must cope with the physical and emotional backwash of a British and Irish Lions tour. The Lions add yet another performance peak to the annual calendar, and the subsequent season is notorious for generating more than its fair share of long-term injuries.

The most recent Professional Game Partnership agreement between the RFU and Premiership Rugby stipulated player involvements should be reduced from 35 to 30 games per season – and ‘involvement’ means ‘any time spent on the field’. An iceberg of physical and mental preparation belies even a last-minute minute substitution. The research was undertaken at the University of Bath and funded by the Rugby Players Association, and the study found 31 or more match involvements resulted in a significantly higher injury rate in the following season.

Take a snapshot of some of the big players from the last Lions tour, and they exceed those guidelines by a distance: England skipper Maro Itoje with 2483 playing minutes and 33 appearances under his belt, Finn Russell with 2736 minutes and 36 match involvements, Tadhg Beirne with 2530 and 33.

No fewer than 18 Irishmen featured on that 2025 tour, and Farrell has coyly admitted his current injury list is “a bit larger than normal”. Andrew Porter, Finlay Bealham, Tadhg Furlong, Mack Hansen, Hugo Keenan and Jamie Osborne among the Lions fraternity; Paddy McCarthy, Jack Boyle, Ryan Baird, Tom Ahern, Robbie Henshaw, Calvin Nash, Jimmy O’Brien, Jordan Larmour, Shayne Bolton and Shayne Bolton in the wider squad beyond them.

It is not just the physical impact of being stretched to the limit, there is a powerful psychological ripple effect too. Bundee Aki was one of Farrell’s emotional talismans and chief lieutenants on the Lions tour, but the 35-year-old was recently banned for six weeks [with two weeks suspended for two years] after being found guilty of behaviour towards the match officials which ‘constituted verbal abuse and disrespect’.

Expect the unexpected. The gamekeeper turned poacher, but that loss of discipline is another kick-back from the physical and mental overload of a Lions tour. The ban means one of the pillars of Irish success under Farrell will be missing for both of the crunch games against France in Paris in round one, and England at Twickenham in round three.

Meanwhile France have lost one of their own bedrock players to a shock retirement. The 150kg La Rochelle prop Uini Atonio was forced to give up the game after being hospitalised last week following a ‘cardiac event’. The smiling giant had pulled out of La Rochelle’s match against Clermont on Sunday after experiencing chest pains, and he withdrew from Galthié’s squad for the game against Ireland the following day.

Expect the unexpected. With Atonio’s heir apparent Tevita Tatafu still slowly working his way back from a long injury lay-off, the loss of Atonio leaves less a man-shaped foxhole, and more of a shell-sized crater on the right side of the French front row. The ex-Wesley College captain was being relied on to exploit an Ireland front row lacking all of its three leading loose-head props: Porter, McCarthy and Boyle.

Without him, Les Bleus will probably have to cycle back to the duo who were selected against South Africa, Clermont’s Regis Montagne and Dorian Aldegheri. With Jean-Baptiste Gros and Julien Marchand filling out the remainder of the front row, and Charles Ollivon and Guillard partnering at lock, it is not a tight five that is likely to cause even Ireland’s depleted forwards too many sleepless nights.

Back in November, the French forwards failed to gain ascendancy over a seven-man Springbok pack in any single physical aspect of the game. Not at scrum, not at maul, not at the breakdown or on the carry. The Springboks made 63 more total metres and 33 more post-contact metres than the home side, with 20% more dominant carries. Their scrum won more penalties, their breakdown won more pilfers and their lineout was 100% perfect, even after the caller Lood de Jager departed for good. Notably, South Africa head coach Rassie Erasmus never felt the need to add an eighth forward to the mix after De Jager left the field in the 38^th minute.

France have no obvious replacement for Atonio. Aldegheri has been an asset for his club Toulouse without ever nailing down the number three spot at national level. The jury is still out on Montagne after the series in New Zealand and three games in November.

In the Top 14, tight-heads are allowed to angle in with impunity. When they are forced to stay straighter for longer at the level above, they are vulnerable to either the ‘pinch’ or the wheel.

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— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) February 1, 2026

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— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) February 1, 2026

The first clip is Aldegheri versus Ox Nche at the 2023 World Cup, the second is Montagne against Boan Venter two years later. The outcome is the same, with both having to pop out of the roof of the scrum to relieve the pressure from the Springboks.

The cable-cam shot from overhead and behind the posts helps to explain why.

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— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) February 1, 2026

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— William Bishop (@RPvids1994) February 1, 2026

South African hooker Malcom Marx is looking to ‘pop’ the right shoulder of his opposite number Marchand while he and Venter clamp Montagne’s head in a vice as the set-piece swings through and around. In both clips, the Toulousain hooker loses the right arm bind on his tight-head, leaving him vulnerable and isolated.

Jeremy Loughman and Michael Milne may only be ranked fourth and fifth in the Ireland pecking order at loose-head prop, but in the company of Ronan Kelleher and Tadhg Furlong, neither is likely to be embarrassed publicly at the Stade de France.

And if Ireland have a set-piece, they will be able to play a game against France. Make no mistake, the outcome of the match could be a whole lot closer than many anticipate. The second part of the article will look at selection probabilities and the tactical balance between the two teams. Get ready for a surprise. Expect the unexpected.