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Don’t anoint Leinster as Saracens’ successors just yet, 10 weeks is a long time in rugby – Andy Goode
It was an amazing finish to the Champions Cup pool stages and, while the favourites might look obvious to everyone right now, it’ll be a whole different ball game in 10 weeks’ time.
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The fact that 14 teams went into the weekend fighting for seven quarter-final places and only one side was guaranteed a spot made for incredible entertainment and it was great to see the few clubs that weren’t in the mix fighting hard as well.
Apart from Castres against Munster in the last game of the weekend after the delay in Limerick, every team took it seriously even if they were out of contention. The likes of Leicester and Harlequins put in big efforts and that is a sign of a strength of the competition nowadays.
And it will only get even better next year with Italy not guaranteed a spot in the top tier and all of the PRO14 places having to be earned through league positions.
Certain teams will rue missed opportunities, with Bath in particular kicking themselves. Most people will say that losing at home to Scarlets cost them but actually you have to go all the way back to Round 1 and their failure to get the try bonus point against Benetton to find their major mistake.
And, Wasps will of course look back with massive regret on the last 15 minutes of last week’s game against Quins when they threw it away. They would have been in the quarter-finals had it not been for that brief period and it’s minute details within games that have proved the difference for teams.
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Exeter had loads of possession in the first half against Glasgow but just couldn’t convert that into points and made lots of uncharacteristic errors. Sometimes knockout rugby changes people and for Exeter it was a knockout game. The Warriors had nothing to lose and scored some wonderful tries but the Chiefs will be disappointed with their performance.
La Rochelle will definitely look at their game on Sunday as a missed opportunity as a try bonus point against a slightly weakened Quins side with nothing to play for would have given them a home quarter-final.
The flip side of that is that their away record this season has been very good and they will fancy themselves away at Scarlets. Leinster v Saracens may have the pedigree but, in terms of excitement, that is the pick of the quarter-finals for me with the style of rugby both teams play.
It is a surprise that only one English side has made it through and they only did so by the skin of their teeth in the end but it’s great to see teams from all the major nations, apart from Scotland, represented in the quarter-finals.
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Four French sides making it through shows that they’re still able to flex their financial muscle and the sheer power of the Top 14 outfits has shone through at times. And, it’s great to see a Welsh region in the last eight for the first time for six years.
Everyone will be picking Leinster as their tournament winners right now but there’s a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and the quarter-finals and I have a feeling Saracens might have something to say about that.
Billy Vunipola may well be back by then and his presence could just tip the balance in Saracens’ favour. He is that important to them and that much of a world class player.
They beat Munster 26-10 at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin in the semi-final last year, so going over there will hold no fear for them and it will be all about what physical and mental state the squad is in when the game comes around.
Leinster have managed their squad very effectively but they’ve got 18 players in Ireland’s Six Nations squad. You go through a full Six Nations campaign and then get to the start of the knockout stages in April and teams will be in a very different position to where they are now.
Sides that have been very strong throughout the pool stages might have picked up three or four key injuries and be down to the bare bones in certain positions when that has been the case for others between October and January.
That certainly applies to Clermont. Rewind just over a month to their demolition of Saracens at Allianz Park and they were on fire but now they’re really struggling. They have a huge injury list and were abject at times against Ospreys but they’ve done enough to get through and don’t count them out when they’ve got some bodies back.
We’ve seen the best eight teams qualify and, undoubtedly, Leinster are the best team in Europe right now but the landscape will change hugely in the next couple of months.
I would pick Munster, Clermont and Scarlets to make it through but Leinster v Saracens is just too tough to call. If they played tomorrow, I would back Leinster but they aren’t and I just think it could be a whole different ball game in a couple of months’ time.
You can listen to Andy Goode with Jim Hamilton on The Rugby Pod – all previous episodes are available here
And, you can watch the video of the latest episode below…
Comments on RugbyPass
SBW is fast becoming a laughing stock, his misplaced comments & lack of insight Is actually pretty sad.
3 Go to commentsJust well you guys are couch 🛋 potatoes selector's, picking a team of greenhorns to play England! “What are you people smoking?” The halfbacks will be Christie, Fakatava, Perenara Props; Newell, Bower, Lomax, Tunga'fasi, Hookers; Asosa Amua when fit, Taylor, Samisoni,
11 Go to commentsQuite frankly, all this is a bit pathetic. The first time Wales get the Wooden Spoon in 21 years and everyone is on the bandwagon for a ‘play-off’ game. Wales have no obligation to Georgia and no obligation to the rest of the Six Nations to play such a game. If they want Georgia in so badly then they need to include South Africa into a Northern Hemisphere competition with 2 leagues of 4 teams with the top 2 competing for the Championship. Sadly, this will end Triple Crowns and Grand Slams forever. Is this really what you want?
4 Go to commentsI think Finau to start Blackadder to come on. Poss Prokter instead of Ioane, haven't seen much from Reiko so far this year.
11 Go to commentsJoe will have had a good chat with Dave Rennie, a smart move to begin with while it’s doubtful Fast Eddie will be consulted? Plenty of Aus players hitting top form so they should go OK.
3 Go to commentsMmm. Not sure I like this article or see it as necessary.
3 Go to commentsBlackadder but no Finau! 😀 It’s Razor so you are probably right, plus Taylor at 2…
11 Go to commentsThe strongest possible AB side would actually include Aaron Smith, Bodie Retallick, Sam Whitelock, Leicester Fainga'anuku, Shannon Frizzel.. don’t get me started on the rest of the injury hit brigade that got flung on the heap so left. Many a whole not getting filled as of yet.
11 Go to commentsI don’t think anyone knows what Schmidt will do, one thing is certain it ain’t gonna be all the picks we on the keyboard will think. My impression of him is that he will be looking at who can step up and what is the best combination. He will ignore individuals as he looks for guys who can build a powerful team and not just guys who can make a flashy run or ignore the winger as they want to score themselves.
3 Go to commentsSome dumb selections there. Not Porecki Not Donaldson Not Gordon Not Lonegran - both Not Nic White - Fines instead Not Liam Wright Not Paisami Definitely not Vunivalu Other than that not bad.
3 Go to commentsI've never been convinced that Patty T is a test match all black. Otherwise I probably agree it's the best side available to beat the poms. Caveat that Codie Taylor is yet to be seen and could very likely warrant selection by June. I hope that Razor brings the young loosies, half backs and locks into the training squad and develops/ selects the best
11 Go to commentsYou doing the same thing I disliked about the example of Samisoni Taukei'aho, Nick. He’s great the way he is, you’re trying to do what modern-day coaches frustrate me doing, turning everyone into the perfect athlete. Next thing you’ll be telling me you’ll bench him until he’s hit that arbitrary marker, and can’t overtake the current guy who’s doing all his workons. He’s a young Kieran Read, through and through, plays wide and has threat, mainly (and evident in your clips) through his two hand carry and speed. Just let him work on that, or whatever he wants, and determine his own future. Play God and you risk the players going sideways, like Read did, instead of being a Toutai Kefu. I mean I was in the same camp for a while, wanting our tight five to have the size, and carry ability, as the teams they were getting beat by. Now I’m starting to believe those teams just have better skilled and practiced individuals, bigger by upwards of 5kg sometimes, sure, but more influentially they have those intrinsic skills of trust and awareness. Basically our guys just didn’t know wtf they were doing. Don’t think I’m trying to prove a point here but hasn’t Caleb Clarke been in much better form this year, or does he just ‘look’ better now that he’s not always trying to use his size?
44 Go to commentsThe pack lacks a little in height for the line out and I wouldn’t be completely convinced by some of the combinations till we see it in action.
11 Go to commentsThe side is good but lacks experience. International playing bona fides udually trumps super rugby form for good reason. And incumbents are usually stuck with. Codie Taylor should start or come off the bench. B Barrett will start at fullback. Blackadder has not earned the position, Finau has. TJs experience and competitiveness earns him a starting role, Christie or Ratima off the bench
11 Go to commentsPretty good side. Scott Barrett should be the captain. Ethan Blackadder a great choice at blindside. He is going to go from strength to strength having made a couple of starts for the Crusaders. Scott Robertson rates him highly. Perenara could start a no 9.
11 Go to commentsI question and with respect. Was enough done over the last few years to bring through new blood knowing the Whitelocks and co couldn’t last forever. There should have been more done to future proof the team. New squad new coach, he and they weren’t set up well. IMO
6 Go to commentsJacobsen will definitely be in the 23
11 Go to commentsLots of discussion points, Ben, but two glaring follies IMO: 1. Blackadder at 6. Has done nothing so far this season to justify his selection. Did you see him going backwards in contact at the weekend? Simply has not got the physical presence at 6: we need a Scott Barrett or a Finau (or wildcard Ah Kuoi), beasts who are big enough to play lock, like Frizzell. If Barret played at 6, Paddy could be joined at lock by Vai’i or one of the young giants we need to promote, like Darry or Lord (if he ever gets on the field). Blackadder best left to join the queue for 7. 2. Not even a mention for Christie? Ratima gets caught at crucial times at the back of the ruck when he hesitates on the pass. The only way he starts would be if Christie and TJ are injured.
11 Go to commentsWhat a dagg in more ways than one
6 Go to commentsRegroup come back next year but sack some of the coaching team and don't be like the ABs last minute sacking. If Crusaders don't do well ABs don't do well.
5 Go to comments