Basement Battle: Predicting the 2017/18 relegation fight
In these crazy, crazy times, who can predict anything anymore? Dan Johansson, that’s who. Our very own Mystic Meg peers into his crystal ball to reveal the teams most likely to be battling it out at the bottom of the table this season.
Dead Certs
London Irish:
It might be an obvious starting point, but it’s always hard to look beyond the season’s proverbial newbies as the prime candidates for the chopping block. London Irish had been a well-established Premiership side for years, but hadn’t really looked like getting their hands on silverware for quite some time. It would be fair to say they had started taking Premiership status for granted, but relegation a couple of years ago served as a rude awakening. Their year spent in the wilderness may just provide the impetus required to kick on and improve in much the same way as Northampton and Harlequins in years gone by. Recruitment has been okay-ish, with the likes of Luke McLean and Petrus du Plessis probably the biggest names to head to the Exiles. Irish’s one-season basement bungee means they don’t have the luxury of claiming to have underestimated the Premiership à la Bristol last year, so unless they hit the ground running it could be a long season for the Irish faithful.
Worcester:
The most likely side to be caught in a relegation dogfight with Irish would have to be Worcester. In the 11 seasons Warriors have spent in the Premiership, they’ve never finished higher than 8th, being relegated twice and finishing second from bottom on four occasions. Unfortunately, Warriors excellent training facilities have yet to bear fruit on the field, and recruitment has at times made Sixways look more like a retirement home for second choice players from other clubs. That their home-grown talent tends to head off to greener pastures hasn’t helped either, and without the ability to attract and keep major talent Worcester will remain something of a yo-yo side for the foreseeable future. A major exodus of 23 players this summer might be a sign of Gary Gold shaping the squad in his own vision, but whether this is enough to prevent the gravitational pull of the relegation zone remains to be seen.
Probables
Newcastle:
The Falcons are fresh off their highest league finish in 11 seasons, so perhaps this seems slightly harsh to the side that finished last season in a lofty 8th place. However, give a run of three consecutive 11th place finishes preceded immediately by a relegation and it looks like the 16/17 campaign may have been something of a fluke for the boys in black. Some cracking rugby last year as well as notable recruitment in the form of the likes of Maxime Mermoz, Joel Matavesi and Toby Flood will provoke excitement up at Kingston Park, but for a side used to lurking at the southern end of the table few will be surprised if the Falcons end up scrapping for survival again.
Sale:
Sale seemed to have all the components necessary to make a real go of things in the Premiership, but for whatever reason it never quite clicked, particularly after the departure of the mercurial Danny Cipriani. Even with the form of the likes of Denny Solomona, Sale had to settle for a fairly comfortable 10th place finish last season and unless James O’Connor can experience a Cipriani-esque career renaissance at fly half Sale’s potential will remain untapped.
Possibles
Gloucester:
For such a historic club, Gloucester’s recent Premiership performances have been average at best. Stronger showings in cup competitions have been enough to keep the Kingsholm faithful reasonably grumble free, but ultimately financial problems have prevented the Cherry & Whites from really competing with the big boys. Exeter Chiefs have shown that a lack of star names doesn’t necessarily prevent a team from being successful, but Gloucester don’t seem to have that X-Factor required to be anything other than just “quite good”. A new-look coaching set up for this campaign might mix things up a little, but it only takes a few so-so performances for a side to start preparing for a season spent at the wrong end of the board.
Northampton:
Given some of the names populating the Saints’ squad, it seems absurd to suggest that Northampton might be candidates for relegation. It’s probably unlikely, but last season’s difficult campaign won’t be forgotten quickly, especially given the loss of the talismanic Louis Picamoles, who was arguably the only one keeping Saints from collapsing completely most of the time. Dylan Hartley’s reappointment as captain might signal a return to the winning ways of 2014, but the vocal displeasure at Jim Mallinder’s regime is likely to intensify if the Saints don’t get off to a flying start this year.
Comments on RugbyPass
Good to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
17 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
7 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
17 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
7 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
7 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
26 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
17 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
26 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
17 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
84 Go to commentsNo surprise there. How hard can it be to pick a ball off the ground and chuck it to a mate? 😂
2 Go to commentsSometimes people just like a moan mate!
7 Go to commentsexcellent idea ! rugby needs this 💪
17 Go to comments9 Brumbies! What a joke! The best performing team in Oz! Ditch Skelton for Swain or Neville. Ryan Lonergan ahead of McDermott any day! Best selection bolter is Toole … amazing player
14 Go to commentsI like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
17 Go to comments