Australia's best chance of bagging an upset against Kiwi opposition
With Super Rugby Pacific facing ongoing questions concerning the viability of the tournament, now would be an excellent time for the Australian sides to stand up and prove themselves capable of at least putting up a challenge against their rivals across the ditch.
During last year’s Trans-Tasman competition, the Reds and Brumbies were the only Australian teams to record wins. There has been talk that the Australian franchises will be better prepared this year having had a taste of the New Zealand medicine last season but that’s a questionable line of thinking given that NZ and Australian teams have been squaring off every year for the better part of the last three decades. A small break from going toe to toe in the latter half of 2020 and the early stages of 2021 should not have seen all that knowledge and experience forgotten.
If the Australian sides do fare better this season, chalk that up to their generally improving ability – primarily a product of young players getting plenty of runs on the board over the past two seasons. There’s also a growing suspicion that the New Zealand teams aren’t quite as strong this year with injuries and other disruptions making it difficult for squads to build their cohesion throughout the season to date.
This weekend, New Zealand’s five franchises have travelled to Australia for the inaugural Super Round and while the Kiwi sides will enter each of their contests as favourites, it’s not entirely out of the question that an Australian team gets an against-the-odds win – although key injuries suffered in recent weeks won’t help.
How, then, did this weekend’s matches play out during last year’s Super Rugby Trans-Tasman competition?
Chiefs vs Waratahs
The opening trans-Tasman match of this year’s competition was also the final round-robin match of year’s, with the Chiefs taking on the Waratahs.
Last year was a true annus horribilis for the Waratahs, with the men from New South Wales failing to record a win in their 13 matches played. It took just two minutes for the Chiefs’ to get their first try on the board last year, with the recently deceased Sean Wainui touching down for one of his five tries from the afternoon – setting a new Super Rugby record in the process. It wasn’t until shortly before halftime that the Waratahs were actually able to themselves onto the scoresheet, with Mark Nawaqanitawase touching down in the 34th minute. At that stage, however, the Chiefs were already two tries up and they launched an onslaught early in the second half to secure the 40-7 win.
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The Waratahs’ fortunes have turned around this year and they already look an immensely better side. Factor in the significant walking wounded list for the Chiefs – Reuben O’Neill, Gideon Wrampling, Simon Parker, Brodie Retallick, Josh Ioane, Sione Mafileo, Laghlan McWhannell, Anton Lienert-Brown, Emoni Narawa, Shaun Stevenson, Brad Weber and Etene Nanai-Seturo are all unavailable – and Friday night’s only fixture might not be as one-sided as many suspect.
Blues v Fijian Drua
The first game of Saturday afternoon will see the Blues take on the fan-favourite Fijian Drua.
The Drua clearly possess talent in spades and have shown throughout their inaugural season that they’re capable of scoring tries from anywhere. Game management, however, has been a real issue for the team (perhaps that’s why they’ve named four halfbacks in their match-day 23 for this weekend) and if they play anywhere near as looses against the likes of Beauden Barrett, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Rieko Ioane as they have been so far this season, they’ll be in for a world of hurt this weekend.
Of course, with the Drua being a new team, this is the first encounter between them and the Blues.
Hurricanes v Reds
The Hurricanes will take on the Reds on Saturday evening and although things haven’t all gone smoothly for the Hurricanes in this year’s competition, they’ll be hoping to lay down a marker in Melbourne.
Last year, the Hurricanes hosted the Reds in Wellington in the final round of Super Rugby Trans-Tasman and, having surrendered any probably chance of making the final the week before after losing to the Brumbies, took their anger out on their opposition to the tune of a 43-14 victory. The Hurricanes took the lead early through Ngani Laumape and although the Reds were able to level up the scores at halftime with a try to Tate McDermott, it was mostly one-way traffic in the second half.
The Reds have lost just one game this season and as one of the top two Australian sides, would normally be hoping to push the fourth-ranked Kiwi team. Unfortunately for the Queenslanders, however, they’ve lost playmaker James O’Connor for the remainder of the season and will also have to manage without Jordan Petaia and Liam Wright this weekend. Without that experienced trio, a victory seems unlikely.
Highlanders v Brumbies
The early Sunday match between the Highlanders and Brumbies looms as the Australian teams’ best chance at a victory this weekend.
The Brumbies have dropped just one game this season and sit second on the overall ladder. As one of the only two Australian sides to pick up a win last year – in the second-to-last round of the competition – they’ll be confident they can upset the Highlanders in Melbourne and kick their trans-Tasman matches off with a bang.
The Highlanders, on the other hand, will be looking to ignite a season that’s never really kicked off and even though they had to travel to Canberra for last year’s fixture with the Brumbies, they still scored a relatively 33-12 bonus-point victory in the final round of the competition. That bonus point proved crucial as they would have finished third on the overall ladder without it and missed out on the grand final.
Crusaders v Rebels
The final match of the Super Round is another repeat of last year’s final week match-ups, with the Crusaders taking on the hosts of the one-off event, the Melbourne Rebels.
The Crusaders went into that match knowing that a victory by 33 points would have netted them a spot in the final but they fell one try short, winning 52-26. While the Crusaders will first and foremost be looking to start their trans-Tasman derbies off well after losing their most recent match to the Blues, they’ll also have revenge on their minds following last year’s shortcoming.
The Rebels have been poor this year and although the Crusaders might not quite be as strong as in 2021, it would take a very brave man to bet against the red and black machine on Sunday afternoon.
Overall
In the same fixtures in last year’s Super Rugby Trans-Tasman season, the New Zealand sides scored a significant points win over their Australian opposition, winning by a cumulative margin of 168-59.
The Chiefs’ injuries coupled with the Waratahs’ resurgence could make the opening match of the weekend the best chance of an upset with the Highlanders-Brumbies clash another possible source of a victory for Australian sides but the odds will certainly still favour the Kiwi teams.
Comments on RugbyPass
Hats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
1 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
1 Go to commentsLions might take him on if they move on Van Rooyen but I doubt he will want to go back, might consider it a step backwards for himself. Sharks would take him on but if Plumtree goes on to win the challenge cup they will keep him on. Also sharks showing some promising signs recently. Stormers and Bulls are stable and Springboks are already filled up. Quality coach though, interesting to see where he ends up
1 Go to commentsAnd the person responsible for creating a culture of accountability is?
2 Go to commentsMore useless words from Ben Smith -Please get another team to write about. SA really dont need your input, it suck anyway.
264 Go to commentsThis disgraceful episode must result in management and coach team sackings. A new manager with worse results than previous and the coaching staff need to coached. Awful massacre led by donkeys.
1 Go to commentsInteresting article with one glaring mistake. This sentence: “And between the top four nations right now, Ireland, France, South Africa, and New Zealand…” should read: And between the top four nations right now, South Africa, Ireland, New Zealand and France…”. Get it right wistful thinkers, its not that hard.
23 Go to commentsHow did Penny get the gig anyway?
2 Go to commentsNice write up Nick and I would have agreed a week ago. However as you would know Cale & co got absolutely monstered by the Blues back row of Sotutu, Ioane and Papaliti and not all of these 3 are guaranteed a start in the Black jumper. He may need to put some kgs before stepping up, Spring tour? After the week end Joe will be a bit more restless. Will need to pick a mobile tough pack for Wales and hope England does the right thing and bashes the ABs. I like your last paragraph but I would bring Swinton, Hannigan into the 6 role and Bobby V to 8
21 Go to commentsThe Crusaders can still get in to the Play Off’s. The imminent return of outstanding captain Scott Barrett and his All Black team mate Codie Taylor will be a big boost.There are others like Tamaiti Williams too. Two home games coming up. Fellow Crusader fans get there and support these guys. I will be.
1 Go to commentsCant get more Wellington than Proctor.
2 Go to commentsWhy not let the media decide. Like how they choose the head coach. Like most of us we entrust the rugby system to choose. A rugby team includes the coaches. It's collective.
13 Go to commentsHi NIck, I have been very impressed with him and he seems a smart player who can see opportunities which Bobby V _(who must be an international 6_) doesn’t see or have the speed to take advantage of. If he continues to improve and puts on 5kgs then he could be a great 8. He is a bit taller than Keiran Reid at 1.93m and 111 kgs, so his skill set fits his body size and who knows where it will lead. I hope the spate of Achilles tendon issues have been dealt with by the S&C people. It’s been a very long time since Mark Loane and Kefu stood out at 8. The question is will we be able to hold onto him, if he does make it he will be pretty hot property. I disagree with the idea of letting them go to the Northern Hemisphere and then bring them back.
21 Go to commentsBilly Fulton 🤣🤣🤣🤣 garrrmon not even close
13 Go to commentsDoes the AI take into account refs? hahaha Seriously why not have two on field refs to avoid bias?
23 Go to commentsVern challenging this Blues side might be the edge they need to fulfill their potential. Convincing results from strong D and strong carries are hard to argue against.
1 Go to commentsLove seems to add a strong back field defense with speed to close the gap and tackle to his ability to attack, kick and pass (an accurate long pass). This sets him an edge over some of the other names - JRK in particular. Has to be said that Jordan and Stevenson have also been exposed defensively while Love has yet to face test match intensity. Spoilt for choice.
1 Go to commentsHe’s strung together a few strong seasons, I’d like to see him in the ABs and build some depth along with Reiko and ALB. Levi Aumua hasn’t taken the step we hoped to see but time yet.
2 Go to commentsWhere has our good friend Pecos gone!? Similar place to the Crusaders D, the abyss.
4 Go to commentsNice piece Nick. I haven’t seen much of the brumbies this year so will keep my powder dry on charlie, but clearly has the speed and footwork to be damaging in space. Similar to Samu, I’d worry about the size of our pack if the likes of Mcreight and Cale were in the b/row together. Maybe Cale could play a similar finisher role like Samu did for Rennie’s wallabies. Has Cale leapfrogged wilson in your eyes? He obviously has the lineout, but harry probably better (although not great) in the physical stuff and also has great hands in the loose. You’d have to say mcreight and valetini are shoe-ins at 7/8, so the question becomes who matches best with them at 6 and on the bench. I don’t know if he has a high enough ceiling, but id love to see wright given a shot based on how much bad luck he has had with injuries. He may also fit that no-nonsense graft/work rate irish approach…? If schmidt wants size and a 4/6 tweener then I’d probably pick Uru. On the bench I’d have no idea, Wilson if you want to give valetini a rest, and maybe hanigan/wright/uru as 6 replacements.
21 Go to comments