Analysis: Wales mixing the old with the new and borrowing Eddie Jones' attacking system from England
“I wanted a play that would paint the full face of sensuality, rebellion and revivalism. In South Wales these three phenomena have played second fiddle to Rugby Union, which is a distillation of all three.” – Gwyn Thomas
Welsh rugby in the golden era of the seventies was a romantic, beautiful game. You had players like Barry John, Phil Bennett, John Dawes and the illustrious Gareth Edwards, all symbolising and playing the style of rugby that near painted Wales’ identity.
Wales expressed themselves internationally through their rugby; daring, creative, skillful play that captured the imaginations of rugby playing countries world over.
In recent years, this perception of the beautiful game has somewhat subsided in Wales, as romanticism and flow were replaced with brutality and structure. Whilst incredibly effective and successful, it went away from the style that some Welsh fans consider their way and lifeblood.
Wayne Pivac and Stephen Jones are set in returning to these days. They have started this journey with a little Scarlets panache, an implementation of 11/21 patterns targeting the forwards, a throwback to the Welsh Rugby days under Steve Hansen, and a return to basics.
It is an exciting time for the Welsh, and the journey has only just started.
The Grand Mentor
In the lead up to the 2003 World Cup, the press in Wales, as well as many fans, were clamouring for Hansens’ resignation.
They had been beaten 43-9 by England’s reserve team, had finished last in the Six Nations of that year, and were being panned by pundits and journalists alike.
After the 2003 World Cup, the public were begging him to stay, such was the style of play he had got Wales playing in brilliant performances against New Zealand, and eventual champions England, whom to put it mildly they scared the living “expletive” out off.
This has fed into 2020.
Jones was a part of this Welsh team that ran England so close. This play is down to him, and we may see Wales take more from that era.
This trend is ever-increasing, with more old-school plays appearing in the playbooks of modern teams, not just Wales. This shows that coaches are now starting to look to the old ways, to unlock the defences that have come so far.
Copying Eddie Jones
Whilst a controversial statement and possibly coincidental, Wales’ new attack shape is similar to Japan’s and England’s under Jones, the key difference being England are more inclined to run “off-9” than Wales.
This shape is the 1-2-2-2-1 pattern, where the English forwards split across the field within three pods of two, or two pods of two with one forward providing a “roam” additional support option if needed.
The George Ford – Owen Farrell axis operate around these pods, able to distribute too, and take the screen pass behind them.
This was the first evolution of the connect, perfected with Japan by the same 10-12 axis, that allowed them to stretch the defence across the field whilst maintaining numbers.
With Wales, we have started to see a similar setup in phase play.
As we can see, the Welsh are sending pods of two, with the main difference being in the distribution. Dan Biggar is much more prevalent in this shape, with England running it a lot “off-9”, and secondly, the second receiver for Wales is often the outside or full-back due to Hadleigh Parkes’ crash ball role.
With the mobility and experience in the back row that Pivac can call upon, this is a natural fit for the Welsh team. The Pro14 allows more contesting at the breakdown than any other competition, this combined with Sam Warburtons’ coaching influence means Wales can bring a natural efficacy to this game-plan than other teams could.
The Inside Option
This is the shape that Wales have used “off-10” with far more profligacy, especially on the first instance in two phases cross-field.
The “2-pod off-10” is quintessentially Jones’ England, but Wales have adopted the principle of the inside option in a big way. This links in with the backs (IO) and the forward inside option (FIO).
The reasoning behind the FIO is not only can the forward operate as an inside option but can act as a second cleaner to ensure quick ball can be generated. They can also take the short pass “off-9” if the fringe defence drifts out to cover the 10.
Whilst we may think this separates Wales from England, this is a very common shape with them as well.
The key purpose of this shape for England is to generate quick ball, and as such saw usage against New Zealand when chasing the game.
In the above two cases, we see the outside slotting in at second receiver much like the Welsh style of the outside centre.
Shape wise we often see this when Farrell and Manu Tuilagi line up at ten or twelve, with Henry Slade playing second receiver.
The 10-12 axis was restored with Ireland. Japan also shows the 10-12 axis in 2015.
It’s a different, and more unpredictable pod set up than the generic wedge “3-pod”. But offers all the benefits and ball security that it offers with the added deception.
With the modern rush defence, the back three are finding themselves more and more nullified on the wings. Meaning Pivac and Jones have built structure for them to follow the play and be useful elsewhere.
Biggar is now providing this option with his increased skill at taking the ball to the line, much like Ford provides England.
The Strike move philosophy
One of the best things about Wales under Jones is the options in their attack.
In sequence plays, we have passages known as the “21” and “31” patterns. These are passages of play that involve two or three phases “off-9” in one direction before a switch play “off-10” to the opposite.
Wales have adapted a system where they set up a sequence in exactly the same way, but through the decision making of Biggar, they are able to exploit the side of the field most opportune through the flexibility in their structure.
Below we see the first example of a new 21 pattern move, resulting in a try in Pivacs’ first game in charge.
We see the same move against Italy, except Wales have selected different positions for the strike runners off the first phase, the two replacements being Parkes and Justin Tipuric. This has continued a trend since.
Owens plays the same decoy runner role “off-9″ on second phase, and whilst it doesn’t come off in the second example, it does show a few things.
Here, we see the Welsh shape for a first phase strike move.
Like the 21, Wales have taken to setting up Parkes and Tipuric at first phase on multiple occasions, and this particular move, results in Josh Adams’ first phase try.
However, as the pass hits Nick Tompkins, he has the option outside in Leigh Halfpenny and George North on the inside. This inside option is one that has proved effective in targeting the seam, as England showed against New Zealand.
This set up has been shown in all the game Wales have played under Pivac and shows the variety Wales now have. If the defence drift too early, an inside pass can be given to an incredibly powerful winger. If they hold, the option out wide is on.
Regardless, Parkes and Tipuric combining on first phase is becoming an increasingly common feature. So, the defence are comparing multiple options within each phase of attack, with the defence having no idea how the next phase could set due to the same setups at the start.
This allows them to launch a multitude of attack sequences that could mean an 11 pattern, a 21, or something entirely separate.
Aspiring for Total Rugby
We have to admire the direction of the Welsh management in these early days.
We have seen things that show Wales are trying to move towards the total rugby side of play, with practicality around the harsh realities of test rugby.
We’ve seen wingers coming in at first receiver, as well as the inside options to target the fringes, combatting the rush defence. We’ve seen forwards as distributors, and an increasing rise in the offloading game to pierce the defensive line.
We’ve seen Parkes developing a monster boot at 12, and the “hands up” positioning from the dummy runners in the pods when the ball is intended to miss them. This all buys into an adventurous more back to basics style of play based on speed and skill.
It’s early days, but all this is pointing to a game where Wales can literally bring too many options for a defence to bear at breakneck speed.
If they can get it right, not many teams will be able to live with it.
Comments on RugbyPass
It’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
2 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
28 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
1 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
1 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
2 Go to commentsLions might take him on if they move on Van Rooyen but I doubt he will want to go back, might consider it a step backwards for himself. Sharks would take him on but if Plumtree goes on to win the challenge cup they will keep him on. Also sharks showing some promising signs recently. Stormers and Bulls are stable and Springboks are already filled up. Quality coach though, interesting to see where he ends up
1 Go to commentsAnd the person responsible for creating a culture of accountability is?
3 Go to commentsMore useless words from Ben Smith -Please get another team to write about. SA really dont need your input, it suck anyway.
264 Go to commentsThis disgraceful episode must result in management and coach team sackings. A new manager with worse results than previous and the coaching staff need to coached. Awful massacre led by donkeys.
1 Go to commentsInteresting article with one glaring mistake. This sentence: “And between the top four nations right now, Ireland, France, South Africa, and New Zealand…” should read: And between the top four nations right now, South Africa, Ireland, New Zealand and France…”. Get it right wistful thinkers, its not that hard.
24 Go to commentsHow did Penny get the gig anyway?
3 Go to commentsNice write up Nick and I would have agreed a week ago. However as you would know Cale & co got absolutely monstered by the Blues back row of Sotutu, Ioane and Papaliti and not all of these 3 are guaranteed a start in the Black jumper. He may need to put some kgs before stepping up, Spring tour? After the week end Joe will be a bit more restless. Will need to pick a mobile tough pack for Wales and hope England does the right thing and bashes the ABs. I like your last paragraph but I would bring Swinton, Hannigan into the 6 role and Bobby V to 8
28 Go to commentsThe Crusaders can still get in to the Play Off’s. The imminent return of outstanding captain Scott Barrett and his All Black team mate Codie Taylor will be a big boost.There are others like Tamaiti Williams too. Two home games coming up. Fellow Crusader fans get there and support these guys. I will be.
2 Go to commentsCant get more Wellington than Proctor.
2 Go to commentsWhy not let the media decide. Like how they choose the head coach. Like most of us we entrust the rugby system to choose. A rugby team includes the coaches. It's collective.
14 Go to commentsHi NIck, I have been very impressed with him and he seems a smart player who can see opportunities which Bobby V _(who must be an international 6_) doesn’t see or have the speed to take advantage of. If he continues to improve and puts on 5kgs then he could be a great 8. He is a bit taller than Keiran Reid at 1.93m and 111 kgs, so his skill set fits his body size and who knows where it will lead. I hope the spate of Achilles tendon issues have been dealt with by the S&C people. It’s been a very long time since Mark Loane and Kefu stood out at 8. The question is will we be able to hold onto him, if he does make it he will be pretty hot property. I disagree with the idea of letting them go to the Northern Hemisphere and then bring them back.
28 Go to commentsBilly Fulton 🤣🤣🤣🤣 garrrmon not even close
14 Go to commentsDoes the AI take into account refs? hahaha Seriously why not have two on field refs to avoid bias?
24 Go to comments