Why a shock underdog win could rock the Premiership semi-finals - despite the odds
There are plenty of sporting clichés that fall wide of the mark, but one that hits the nail on the head particularly well is that British sports fans love an underdog. With the Gallagher Premiership semi-finals just days away, could we be looking at another one?
From the euphoria of Leicester City winning the Premier League to rugby’s own story of rags to riches in Exeter Chiefs, these are the journeys and moments that are celebrated by the vast majority of the sporting family, irrespective of people’s own tribal loyalties.
It’s a measure of the journey that Exeter have been on that they are no longer considered that plucky and championed underdog. They are instead now one of powerhouses of club rugby that are widely celebrated for their achievements, but not necessarily rooted for in the same fashion they once were before.
Instead, it’s their opponents on Saturday, Northampton Saints, who may well have the neutral’s support, with a sporting upset something which is always lusted after in these islands. Likewise, Gloucester will almost certainly have the support of the fans of the eight clubs not involved in the playoffs when they take on Saracens at Allianz Park, three hours before the contest at Sandy Park.
Wanting and getting a great underdog story are two very different things, though, and there is no escaping just how much the odds are stacked against Northampton and Gloucester this weekend.
Exeter and Saracens have dominated the Premiership in recent seasons and created a significant buffer between themselves and the chasing pack. Couple that with the home advantage that they will both enjoy on Saturday and bookmakers will be fairly confident of avoiding too many large payouts.
They are not without hope, though, and both sides will have seen elements from Exeter and Saracens this year that they will back themselves to exploit and subsequently book an unlikely spot in the Twickenham showpiece on June 1st.
Northampton have the advantage of having just played Exeter in the final round of the regular season and have a fresh understanding of exactly what it is that the Chiefs will bring to the party on Saturday.
Saints troubled Exeter early on at Sandy Park, racing into 7-0 and 14-7 leads, before then tying the score back up at 21-21 just prior to the half time interval. At that point it was anyone’s game and director of rugby Chris Boyd will be buoyed by what he saw in those 40 minutes. Had they been able to replicate that performance in the second half, the result may have ended rather differently than the 40-21 victory for Exeter that it turned out to be.
There has been a trend in rugby of teams beginning to win more frequently without the possession and territorial advantages that it used to be deemed necessary to win, but the former of these, in particular, is still a must-have in any game plan to take on the Chiefs.
Through a combination of ill-discipline, inability to disrupt the set-piece and coughing up turnovers, Northampton began to give Exeter more and more opportunities as the game went on, and with Exeter’s ability to retain possession and string together phases arguably unmatched in English rugby, whilst remaining hard for defences to read, that is a difficult spot to put yourself in as an opposition team.
Saints have shown consistently this season that when they are able to hang on to the ball, they are a threat to any side. When Taqele Naiyaravoro is spearheading their attack, rather than having to drop deep and cover the back field, essentially keeping him moving forward in a straight line rather than asking him to turn, Saints have been ruthless as an attacking entity. Against no opponent is that as critical as it is against Exeter, whose agile and smaller wings will relish in trying to get in behind the big Australian international.
If Boyd’s men can eradicate the handling errors and generate some quick ball, they are comfortable stretching teams in defence, too, which in turn creates space for player of the season candidate, Cobus Reinach, close to the ruck. The South African’s ability to spot a gap has been unrivalled this season and Saints have supported his breaks as well as you would expect from a team coached by the former Hurricanes supremo.
In addition to doing away with those handling errors, Northampton will also have to be cleaner at the set-piece and the breakdown, not only to create their own platform, but also to deny Exeter any sort of cheap possession or territory, as once you give the ball back to them, there’s a good chance you won’t see it again for a while. Those things are not easy to fix in months, let alone the week that they have had since their last game, but as a rehearsal for the semi-final, you couldn’t have asked for a better opponent than Exeter themselves.
Northampton haven’t been the most patient of attacking teams this season, preferring instead to strike wide and fast, but it could pay to take a lesson or two from Exeter this weekend, where managing the clock and possession could be key to overturning one of the most forensic and detail-oriented sides in world rugby, who will happily wear down and exploit Northampton if they are given the ball enough times.
As for Gloucester, they may well be wishing they finished fourth rather than third, as that would have seen them take on Exeter, who they have beaten twice this season, including in a match at Sandy Park. They have beaten Saracens, too, although that game was at Kingsholm and there is a significant advantage to Saracens when they play on the plastic of their home pitch at Allianz Park.
The win also came during the Six Nations, when Saracens were missing the likes of Owen Farrell, Maro Itoje, George Kruis and Billy Vunipola among others, all of whom are likely to be involved on Saturday. That said, although the quality was diminished from Saracens on that Friday night game at Kingsholm, the Cherry and Whites did cope well with the defensive aggression and conditioning that is a staple of any Saracens team.
Crucially, the Gloucester midfield of Danny Cipriani, Mark Atkinson and Billy Twelvetrees was in place for that game and it is the balance of that unit that offers real hope for Johan Ackermann’s side on Saturday.
Three competent ball-handlers who are all more than capable of taking the ball to the line, there felt like there was no preordained plan in that previous game, with each player given free rein to diagnose the scenario that the Saracens defence was presenting them with, and they were then able to deal with it accordingly. Loose passes weren’t being intercepted because the message was to turn the corner on their high line-speed, dog legs in the defensive line were spotted and punished, and Cipriani allowed the game to come to him, rather than overplaying his hand in an attempt to make something happen.
The return of Farrell to the XV won’t make that any easier for Gloucester to replicate, whilst the work of Ed Slater and Franco Mostert disrupting the lineout back in February was against a unit lacking Jamie George. With George, Itoje and Kruis all available, it’s going to be a much tougher ask for Gloucester to impact the set-piece defensively and deny Saracens quick ball off the top or to prevent them establishing their driving maul.
Another area where they enjoyed success that night was at the breakdown and closer to the ruck. Again, admittedly, the return of Saracens’ international contingent should make them sharper in those facets of their game, but the European champions’ desire to keep players on their feet, keep their width, and deny opposition sides the opportunity to get around the edge with their outside backs, can create attackable areas.
If Gloucester can boss the breakdown, both delivering quick ball to their back line and turning over Saracens possession, they will create the opportunities they need, whilst quick ball coupled with pick and goes and incisive interplay close to the ruck could find Saracens outnumbered and quickly on their heels as they have to retreat.
Obviously, it is easier said than done when facing the physicality and aggression that the Londoners bring to every contest, but if Gloucester can successfully target the breakdown and the scrum, with Saracens missing a couple of front-line props, they can give themselves a puncher’s chance.
At least with Northampton having had the perfect ‘scouting’ of Exeter through their game at the weekend and Gloucester hoping to catch Saracens cold, after they rested their stars following the Champions Cup victory, there are some solid straws to clutch at that we might see an upset or two this weekend.
With Saracens and Exeter having accounted for the last four titles in the competition, a change of pace at the top might be just what Premiership rugby needs to ignite interest in new fans.
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Comments on RugbyPass
pure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
1 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
7 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
5 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
5 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
5 Go to commentsNot sure exactly what went wrong for him at Glasgow but it’s pretty clear he ain’t Franco’s cup of tea. Suspect he would have been better served heading out of Scotland around the same time as Finn, Hoggy and Jonny!
1 Go to commentsBulls disrespected the Northampton supporters and the competition. Decide quickly, fully in or out.
25 Go to commentsI wonder if Parling was ever on England’s radar as a coach? Obviously Borthwick is a great lineout coach, but I do worry he might be taking on too much as both head coach and forwards coach.
1 Go to commentsJason Jenkins has one cap. When Etzebeth was his age he had over 80 caps. Experience matters. He will never amount to what Etzebeth has because he hasn’t been developed as an international player.
2 Go to commentsSays much about the player picking this gig over the easier and bigger rewards offered to him in Japan. Also says a lot about the state sanctioned tax benefits the Irish Revenue offers pro rugby players, with their ten highest earning years subject to an additional 40% tax relief and paid as a lump sum, in cash, at retirement. Certainly helps Leinster line up the financial ducks in a row to fund marquee signings like this!!! No other union anywhere in world rugby benefits from this kind of lucrative financial sponsorship from their government…
5 Go to commentsTrue Jordie could earn a lot more in Japan. But by choosing Leinster he’ll be playing with 1 of the best clubs in the world and can win a champions cup and URC…..
6 Go to commentsThanks for that Marshy, noticed you didn't say who is gonna win it. We know who ain't gonna win it - your Crusaders outfit. They've gone from having arguably the best Super Rugby first five ever, to having a clutch of rookies. Hurricanes all the way!
1 Go to commentsGeez you really have to question the NRLs ability to produce players of quality. Its pathetic. Dont the 25mil in Aus produce enough quality womens players. Sad.
1 Go to commentsBulls fan here, and agree 100% with the conclusion (and little else) of this article. SA sides should absolutely f-off from the champs cup until we get fair scheduling, equal support for travel arrangements and home semis. You know, like all the european teams get.
25 Go to commentsI’m yet to see why Grace would be an ABs contender. He’s pedestrian and lacks the dominance required of a top flight 8.
11 Go to commentsGee my Highlanders were terrible. They have gone backwards since the start of the season. The trouble began when we left Millar behind to prep as the 10 against the Brumbies and he was disconnected from the team that came back from Aussie. We rested Patchell for that game and we blew an avalanche of ball in good attacking positions in the 1st half. Against the Rebels we seem to of gone into a pod system with forwards hanging off from the breakdown leaving Fakatava to secure our ball!
80 Go to commentsPot Kettle, the English and French teams have done it for years.
25 Go to commentsHas virtually played every minute of previous games. Back row of Li Lo Willie , Grace and Blackadder would be the 1. Crusaders issue is a very average 1st 5 who cannot run. Kicking in general play is also below par They need to put Yong Kemara in. He must have so.e talent for them to bring him down from Waikato. Hoehepa would struggle to play in so.e club sided
11 Go to commentsI hope this a good thing making all these changes!
3 Go to comments