A Super Rugby final round Hail Mary - could waving the white flag be a brave gambit?
Super Rugby is a competition like no other. It spans four continents, six time zones and has games played in seven different countries.
Each competitor plays 15 regular season games; every team in their own conference at least once, two teams in their own conference twice, and four of the five teams in each of the other two conferences. It’s so close to being a perfect round robin, but it’s not quite there.
Perhaps more unusual, however, is the finals series structure.
Teams aren’t ranked strictly on their performance throughout the season.
Instead, the three top-seeded spots are granted to the highest ranked team in each conference. 2019’s conference champions are the Crusaders, Jaguares and Brumbies, who are on 58, 46 and 43 points respectively.
The final quarter-final host is simply the next best team overall. In 2019, that’s the Hurricanes.
Second best in the competition, but relegated to fourth
The Hurricanes, as most people know, have amassed the second highest number of points throughout the season: they’re on 49 heading into the final week of the competition.
If everything goes as is expected and the hosts all win their quarter-finals, then the Hurricanes will be faced with travelling to Christchurch to take on the Crusaders. This seems somewhat unfair on the men from Wellington. Logically, the second-best performing team throughout the season should be hosting a semi-final – but that’s not the case in Super Rugby.
Of course, this is nothing new to the competition. In 2018, the Hurricanes and Chiefs were the second and third-best performing sides but were ranked fourth and fifth on the table. In 2017, the Hurricanes, Chiefs and Highlanders all outperformed South Africa’s top side the Stormers but were dropped places simply because they were part of the New Zealand conference. The situation was much the same in 2016 and, indeed, going back for as long as the ranking system has been in place.
The finals system has been criticised to death for punishing strong teams that weren’t quite strong enough to top their conference – even if they outperformed their foreign opposition. Less commonly discussed, however, is how the system can penalise teams that only just sneak into the play-offs.
The ‘reward’ for a last round victory
The teams ranked fifth through eighth will travel to the teams ranked fourth through first for their quarter-final matches. As the fifth placed team (likely to be the Bulls or the Lions, depending on the outcome of their match), would you rather travel to New Zealand to take on the Hurricanes or to Australia to take on the Brumbies?
Under a fair system, the fifth ranked side would be playing the Brumbies in Canberra.
The Brumbies have a reputable 5-3 record against teams from outside their conference in 2019 (and all three of those losses were suffered away from home). Other than thrashing the Chiefs in the second round of the competition, however, their biggest margin of victory is 12 points. A victory in Canberra would not be easy, by any stretch of the imagination – but it would certainly be achievable.
In contrast, the Hurricanes have lost only once to foreign teams in 2019 – against the Jaguares in Wellington.
Even if you consider the Brumbies and the Hurricanes to be comparatively equal threats, you also have to consider what would lay ahead should a victory be achieved.
Doing the New Zealand double
Prior to 2017, the semi-finals would see the highest ranked qualifier play the lowest rank qualifier with the second and third qualifiers also battling it out – regardless of who they all faced in the quarter-finals.
That system was recently abolished, however, and now the winner of 1st v 8th will always play the winner of 4th v 5th. Under the old system, if the seventh seeded qualifier won against the second seeded qualifier in their quarter-final, they would face off against the highest ranked team who had also made it through to the semi-finals. Effectively, the first seed would always have the easiest match in every round of the finals. That’s no longer the case.
The new system means that should the Bulls or the Lions triumph in their quarter-final with the Hurricanes, they’ll be rewarded with a trip to Christchurch to take on the run-away favourite Crusaders (assuming they don’t slip up in their own quarter-final game).
In 2019, the sixth ranked side will likely play the Brumbies and the seventh ranked side will travel to Buenos Aires to take on the ever-improving Jaguares. Both those teams have their merits – but you would imagine that most squads would prefer to face those two sides in quarter and semi-finals rather than having to earn back-to-back wins in New Zealand against the Hurricanes and the Crusaders.
Is there merit to losing?
All this leaves the remaining teams fighting it out for play-off spots in a bit of a pickle. The winner of the Bulls and Lions match, played in Pretoria, will finish in fifth place and be tasked with travelling to New Zealand’s capital. The loser of that game will likely end up seventh overall and have to journey to Buenos Aires. Whilst it’s always better to go into the finals on a winning streak, the loser would likely face less daunting challenges in the finals. Whilst it’s hard to imagine either team throwing the match, the Bulls’ and Lions’ respective coaches probably wouldn’t be too upset with a loss, given the easier time they’d have getting to the grand final.
At the end of the day, there’s a very high chance that Super Rugby’s ultimate match will be hosted in Canterbury. It’s also very hard to imagine a scenario where the Crusaders aren’t crowned champions if they progress through to the final – foreign opposition rarely win in Christchurch, let alone in knockout matches. The six other quarter-finalists will all be praying that the Hurricanes can knock the Crusaders over in two weeks’ time, otherwise having an easier path to the final match isn’t going to make one ounce of difference.
Super Rugby’s irrational finals structure means that there may be some merit to the Bulls or Lions not putting out their best team in their upcoming match so as to earn an easier path to the final. Come the 6th of July, however, an easier run-in won’t make much of a difference to who is crowned Super Rugby champions if the Crusaders are defending their trophy from their Christchurch fortress.
Comments on RugbyPass
A Turtle has more pace and leg drive than Owen Franks, so it’s a good thing he only had to run 90 metres for that try.
2 Go to commentsOh Tamati Tua was in the vastly over-rated Leon MacDonalds Blues system? Well, no wonder he was wasted, much like Emoni Narawa and Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens under MacDonald. now look at them. Good thing Tua isn’t eligible, the Aussies latch on to any player who isn’t tied down.
2 Go to commentsMark Telea is a lot of things, but a defensive juggernaut has never been one of them. There will be far bigger tests in that regard for the youngster.
9 Go to commentsLove and respect to Fiji but not a chance outside of 7s
3 Go to commentsGood summation Ned. Agree the Canes were out-muscled for once (except at the scrum!) by a focused Brumbies outfit. Tua deserves consideration for higher honors after the way he humbled Jordie and the Canes defense. Thankfully, his lack of eligibility for Oz keeps him from Joe’s plans. While I also agree the injuries affected the Canes performance, some players seemed to lack focus and intensity for this match. Perhaps after the Blues demolished the Brumbies, they thought it was going to be easy? A good reminder that any slip up in preparation can have a big affect on the result. Brumbies deserved that win.
2 Go to commentsKarl Dixon should never have been appointed this fixture, absolute disgrace, He’s not much of a referee anyway, didn't have the balls to send his mate care off
5 Go to commentsBrilliant article! Harry of 8/9
1 Go to comments‘UK athletes' have been in the NFL from the start.
1 Go to commentsIt’s going to be Scott Barrett. He’s the coaches mate and captain of a previously elite team. Ardie a great option but scooter has worked with the coach and Ardie still as big a leader as needed.
23 Go to commentsI commend Colin Scotts bio All Balls. He was the first Aussie to make it to NFL. But he was poached and did a full apprenticeship at the University of Hawaii. He was 130kgs surfed played 1st grade cricket etc. big guy by normal but not NFL standards and a top athlete. Even then the nfl were picking up Tongans and Samoans for their natural size and explosive power. They want explosive power not cardio from the big boys so a guy like Taniela Tupou would have been good if picked up young enough. He has fast twitch and they’d bulk the little lad up and give him something to do. soccer teams set up academies and look for Over Sara’s talent eg Messi was at Barcelona since a teenager and harry kewell went to Leeds as a teenager like 16 or something.
11 Go to commentsThe article alludes to the fact that this isn’t about picking a captain. But picking a great captain. So who would make for a great All Black captain - not just an obvious or safe shoo-in? I’m not sure Ardie’s the guy and Barret doesn’t stand out either.
23 Go to commentsI guess we may all agree on the fact, that the ABs and Boks are the two in contest for No 1 in rugby history (the triple-A sort of) …. the Wallabies, England and France are the next tier, with Ireland being the new kid in town (AA) …. in my view it makes little sense creating imaginary competitions (unless you have too much time to waste)
45 Go to commentsWhat a joke. Total joke and the pundits commentating, all of whom know a bit about the game, could barely disguise their contempt. Reaching for the card then pulling back when he realised a red card would carry further match suspensions is simply not his decision to make. A clear and obvious influence on the outcome of this match and indeed, the championship path.
5 Go to commentsI like the idea, in NZ the Ranfurly Shield and NPC coexist, both having their own bragging rights. The World Cup would be the pinnacle, but the competition and travels of these trophies would be interesting.
45 Go to commentsDon’t worry Sonny bill Williams leave that awkward situation about the curfew in the pass whoever it was it doesn’t matter its no big deal we back our All Blacks through the storm and the thunder until we see the Sun light again.
42 Go to commentsWho listens to this retard? He was a massive liability as a player but obviously a media sensation
42 Go to commentsI’m not surprised by such ‘virtue signalling’ by Sonny Boy. Butter wouldn’t melt in his mouth. He’s such a pious Islamic muppet, imo.
42 Go to commentsI’ve actually never heard of the guy (then I don’t watch League as it is boring). But if he is good enough.. then good luck to him. If not, well, he can always return to league.
2 Go to commentsIt is pretty clear that by almost any measure that NZ are a more successful rugby nation than South Africa. Quite aside from the distasteful events during the last RWC final. NZ lead SA in all significant measurements.
45 Go to commentsDickson went to his pocket for a card, saw who it was, changed his mind and spoke at length to TMO. One angle clearly shows Care diving over a Saints player to kill the ball. 1st yellow, reason given for not Red was player was falling backwards. He was only falling backwards after contact with Lawes. Graham try should have stood. Mitchell did not have both hands on the ball, ball went forward from a Saints boot dragging over it. 2 intentional knock-on's. One of which had an overlap on the outside. If Quins are happy to win by intentional foul play, then it does not say much for them. Would appear to be a bad day for Karl Dickson, also for the RFU in appointing a Ref who spent 8 years as a player at one of the clubs.
5 Go to comments