I still remember the long drive to Ballymore to watch a Queensland Reds training session ahead of their tour match against the 2001 British and Irish Lions, as vividly as if it was yesterday. A flickering colonnade of eucalyptus trees on the residential road through Herston faded from view, and the famous maroon sporting rectangle appeared, as if from nowhere on a cloudless, sun-kissed morning.
I was moved to ask my taxi driver if he was ready for the forthcoming Test series between the cream of the north and the world champions. He looked puzzled and a momentary frown creased his brow. “You mean, State of Origin, right? Alfie Langer versus Andrew Johns, mate. Who’s yer money on?” Suddenly the furrows cleared like dawn mist. He was back in his comfort zone, and it was my turn to squirm uncomfortably in the back seat.
The cabbies in Queensland are like that. The eyes of another had once narrowed accusingly as he asked his ride, ‘Are you Benny Elias?’ When the former New South Wales rake answered in the affirmative, he was promptly kicked out on the street on the way to the game, with a wave of the arm and a whoosh of expletives still swirling in the air around him.
The shadow cast over that Lions tour was the ultimate series of derby games, played out over three matches at one and the same time. But unlike the Lions tour, State of Origin was everywhere in the newspapers, and it meant everything to the locals. As the taxi driver explained succinctly, “New South Wales sees us as the country cousins. We’re the outliers, the bunch of peasants to their squire. They think we live in the arse-end of the world.”
It is city versus country, rich against poor, blue versus red, and some of that classic rivalry has rubbed off on the sister code. It will be revived on Saturday when the Waratahs visit the Reds at the Suncorp. It may be called the Suncorp now, but it is really Lang Park to the cognoscenti, ‘the Cauldron’ hiding in plain sight; the old stomping ground of Wally Lewis, the place where it rained beer cans on the NSW players after ‘the Emperor of Lang Park’ was sent from the field in Origin II in 1988. You still bow before the yoke of Wal’s bronze statue as you pass into the Suncorp. It is a reminder of the Origin skull beneath the rugby skin.
It will also be a litmus test of Joe Schmidt’s selection process for his 2025 Wallabies. Just as the Reds were resuscitated by the arrival of Les Kiss from the UK in 2024, so the Waratahs have seen their fortunes rise with the addition of Dan McKellar from Leicester Tigers one year later. Fortified by reinforcements from the now-defunct Melbourne Rebels, the Tahs are currently unbeaten under the watchful stewardship of the ex-Wallaby forwards coach after four rounds of play. They sit second in the Super Rugby Pacific table, four points ahead of their biggest inter-state rivals.
The way the two teams will approach their tasks on Saturday evening is likely to be as diametrically opposed as the history between the two states implies. Queensland will try to keep ball in hand, play a bit of rugby and utilise the two 15m corridors. The Waratahs will focus on set-piece and defence, and cracking some opportunities out of the mistakes made by their opponents. Let’s see what some of the contrasts look like on paper after four rounds.
| Team | Average ball-in-play time [minutes] | Active time in possession [minutes] | Scrum penalties won | Lineout retention | Average no. of kicks per game |
| Waratahs | 34.8 [11th] | 19.2 [3rd] | 11 [1st] | 95% [1st] | 28 [1st=] |
| Reds | 39.5 [1st] | 16.7 [11th] | 2 [11th] | 78% [11th] | 19 [11th] |
The Reds under Kiss play what might be termed a traditional Australian ball-movement style: they kick the least, scrum to attack, and they are involved in the highest number of ball-in-play minutes in the tournament; on the negative side of the slate, their lineout is poor and the bulk of active possession time is reserved for their opponents.
McKellar’s Tahs behave like an Australian version of South Africa: they prefer low ball-in-play time but occupy more minutes of possession within that frame, they kick the most and both of their set-pieces are extremely strong.
As many as four Waratah tight forwards, current and recent, could form the backbone of Schmidt’s forward unit for the Lions tour in July: the entire front row of Angus Bell, Dave Porecki and Taniela Tupou, plus France-based ex-Tah Will Skelton at lock. They will likely have two or even three Queenslanders behind them in the back-row, in the shape of Frase McReight, Harry Wilson and Seru Uru.
The fate of the game will probably be decided by two factors: the ability of the Queensland tight five to withstand the sky blue assault at set-piece time, and the winner between the Reds’ wide attack and the Waratahs’ defence in the same area.
The superstar status of league recruit Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii has helped young back three Max Jorgensen develop under the radar, as he acknowledged after the Waratahs’ 34-10 demolition of the Western Force in round three:
“When you go through some rough patches, it definitely helps when the spotlight’s not on you so much. It was always at the back of my head.
“Joey [Suaalii] has been amazing for our group. Hopefully he’s back from injury in the next couple of weeks.
“I definitely feel like I’ve come a long way in two years. I look back at some of those [early] games I played and I just look so inexperienced, and I feel so much more confident, just learning off those older players and coaches.”
His head coach put it more succinctly.
“Physically, he’s filled out now, the boy’s become a man, and he’s just starting to feel like he belongs at this level,” said McKellar.
he new-found maturity has been in evidence as much, if not more on defence than with ball in hand.
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McKellar’s men like to defend with their play-side wing as the highest defender upfield, and in the first clip Jorgensen is well ahead of the man positioned on his inside. When the opposition look to make the second pass, that often means the fastest and most dangerous defender is making a play for the intercept. Speed kills, on attack and in defence. It also means he can recover quickly from a spot ahead of the ball, bounce back and win a turnover at the breakdown.
That aggressive attitude on defence will create problems for a Queensland attack which enjoys pulling the ball back from the first line of forwards into the second line of backs more than any other side in the competition. Unfortunately for Kiss’ team, their opponents in round three had worked out a solution to the questions Queensland were asking.
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As soon as the ball is transferred from forward pod to the back behind it, the defender on the outside edge of the pod reads straight through on to the back, forcing a fumble. The Crusaders score on the very next phase. A similar pattern was repeated too often for Kiss’ comfort.
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The Reds were running the same screen play off the second pass at the finish of proceedings as they were at the start, and it was still costing them tries and turnovers.
The ‘State of Origin’ match between the NSW Waratahs and the Queensland Reds may not have quite the same cachet as its equivalent in league, but every signpost suggests the rivalry will be more intense and meaningful than it was between the same clubs this time last year.
Under McKellar, the Waratahs are enjoying their new-found power in the tight five and their uncompromising defence lies second in the tournament with only 11 tries conceded over three games. They restricted the previously free-scoring Force to a mere 10 points last weekend after the Westerners had averaged 38 in the first three rounds.
In their second season under Kiss, there are some worrying indications Queensland’s opponents now know exactly what to expect, and they are ready with their countermeasures. It all points to a riveting contest which may raise the great ghosts of old Lang Park and have them looking down with approval. Who knows, even Wally Lewis may be raising a glass to the sister code by the end of the game.
Really intriguing and interesting set of stats Nick, great find. I’m wondering if those scrum and lineout stats mean more occurnaces of them as well?
I’d imagine many a rugby supporter/visitor/player would look upon a Wally Lewis statue with pride as well.
I’ve never read as fair a depiction of the two states than that one goes quote, kudos!
Interested in any thought you might share of the last 10 minutes of last nights NZ derby (vs the previous 70).
I haven’t watched the game yet JW. From the highlights it lookes like the Landers maybe lost a game they should have won?
The stats are only based on four rounds and three games apiece, but you can already see an emphasis. The Tahs are winning 4 scrum pens per game and that gives you auto field position.
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2001, Nick. Long time ago, time to come back and see this Lions side play in Bne😀
Yes, will a tough game for our Qld. lads, I fear. I will watch the scrums with great interest. Taniela has, imo, fallen a long way as a scrummager from where he was at peak.
Angus Bell will be handful carrying the ball forward. Amatosero has come on a lot this year, and is another who will test our Qld. defence.
Still and all, the game is in Bne. I doubt if there will be a State of Origin crowd at Suncorp….that would swing things a lot the Reds way.
The Tahs were certainly not scrummaging straight up against the Force, there was a lot of gamesmanship going on. I personally thought it was most likely tactical, trying to evolve into more than just a powerful scrum. Will be interesting to see how things play out tomorrow.
I rather think I shall Miz!
I suspect Taniela is still not fully fit and firing after his lay-off. but I still like the look of that NSW front row…
In a sporting contect, being mistaken for Benny Elias in Queensland is bordering on being the ultimate insult. In terns of being an old field pest, not even Faf de Klerk can keep up!
While I'm not reading much into last week's match in Christchurch, I'm nervous about tomorrow night in a way I wasn’ nervous about last year's games against the Tahs.
Yep I read up how he got Fenech sent off by biting his own hand, then showing it to the ref and claiming Fenech did it!
Yeah a well deserved reaction even for a no Queenslander!
You’re right to be Mitch. I don’t see this Tah side going away without a lot of noise and fuss!
I have to say the Tahs forward power is impressive. They have used it as a platform for everything good they have done so far this season. Big scrums followed by big carries and good hits on defence. I have also been really impressed by their strike power out wide with Jorgensen really showing his value and Kellaway proving to be the reliable hand at the back. The Reds on the other hand look like they are trying to conjure up too much too quickly but when it sticks it looks magical. Wilson is really important for them and Mcreight is worth his weight in gold. Their defence though is shockingly passive. If I were the Tahs coach I would stack the midfield with some big carrying forwards and tell them to make a beeline straight for the soft centre of the reds and look for offloads to the faster backs. You can almost guarantee that if you hit the Reds midfield at pace you will gain meters because they just dont come up. They drift across and wait and against the Crusaders they were cannon fodder for fast running backs like Jordan and Reece.
Yes they are orthodox ‘earn the right to go widers’ but they like it that way and it suits them. Nella is at a stage of his career where that it is better for him than playing out in the second pod!
So it will be a real game of contrasts. Tahs will go for strong D and carry straight up the guts, and the Reds have a point to prove after the Saders game…
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Interesting article Nick. The modern Tahs have a record of performing better as more of SA team than playing the “Aussie way”.
Ewen McKenzie took them to 2 grand finals playing a very forward oriented, defensive game. Lachlan Mackay as flyhalf in 2005 was basically an Aussie Handre Pollard (but for some reason went to Force in 2006 and never really played again).
Chieka in 2014-2015 they played a relentlessly physical power game. As a card carrying member there was nothing better than watching them pummel teams into the turf! Especially the Brumbies in the 2014 semi 😉
Was great seeing that again last week against the Force.
Interestingly Turinui made the observation on Between Two Posts that in Super Rugby this year we are seeing the maturing of a change in Aussie style to a power game built on our big boys. Started under Rennie, Eddie tried to bring on, now Schmidt is adding the finesse to make it effective. Wonder what your thoughts are on that and what might happen under McKeller or Les as Wallabies coach??
It’s been reported that Les Kiss has had an interview with Rugby Australia but Dan McKellar has been overlooked for an interview about the Wallabies gig. I’d rather Les, Bernie and the Australian D-McK stay where they are. Franco Smith is my choice but I doubt they’d consider him.
Yes I suspect the Tah DNA is a lot tighter than the Maroons.
I recall looking through the possible Rebels player ‘draft’ last year, and it made sense for both Kailea and Tupou to join NSW, esp when McKellar came back to coach them. They have a strong Brumby flavour about them now, is they can get Amatosero humming they will be a force up front.
The pwoer game has many nuances doesn’t it? You can go for power at the set-piece like SA or divert it to the BD and the carry like Ireland. Then you have the hybrids like France who combine set-piece forwards with countering backs.
I don’t think Les is a power guy - I think he’s perfer to go round obstacles rather than through them!
Thanks Nick. Those clips aren’t working for me. Might just be my connection?
The crusaders did read their attack far too easy. I thought the cyclone may have affected the reds? Or is it making excuses? Their handling was very poor. Want to predict a result for Saturday night? I feel qld will be much stronger at home than last week
I know, they are raw DW. Just try clicking on the link in bold, starting with ‘https’… That should take you straight to the clip.
Qld will want a bounce back from that result won’t they? I think the Tahs will be well up for it too, hence a close one!
The Reds had better pull their finger and stop trying to throw magic balls every play. Otherwise Stephen Larkham should be head Wallaby coach.
Incredibly Larkham seems to have found a bit of mongrel, goodness knows where from (he probably doesn’t even know and no one was more surprised than he was) to tell his players to stop fart arsing around.
The Reds should win if they knuckle down and earn the right to razzle dazzle. I can see their desire to want to go to another level but they aren’t there yet. Slowly slowly catchy monkey.
The Reds are lucky JS is not playing.
Someone in camp must be using a falsified birth certificate.
Time for you to find the mole ojohn!
Most interest in how the Reds tight five performs John. If any of them still harbour WB ambitions, this is as good a game as any to show it.
Ironic that the Brums have arguably the weakest of the four teams in terms of personnel now, have been the last dog at the Rebels bowl! But they still have that great culture to rely on!
That’s right John our best fly half and a world cup winner wouldn’t know what mongrel is. But clearly you do. Playing z grade must have taught you proper mongrel.
My gut says Reds but my head says Tahs. Nah! I’m going the reds but not by much. I want to see the impact of Joe on the Wallaby players in both teams, McRight was a bit quiet last week and the Reds will need a blinder from him and Wilson offloading to each other for tries but this game will come down to the D and the breakdown. McRight must shine in this and rest of SR season or he’ll be on the bench in the Lions and Tizzano will start.
Great derby thinking process Ardy!
The Reds need to show a bit of grit, and past the 38-34 type winning matrix they had last year. Their scrum and lineout will need to show up seriously.
Thanks Nick aaah memories of Ballymore what a great ground to watch rugby and have a drink after under the stand.
State OO is exactly that whereas the Reds v Tahs includes players from either state in the respective team. It could be said that the QRL manipulated the state boundaries to nab a couple of players who became league legends
“there are some worrying indications Queensland’s opponents now know exactly what to expect,”
Everyone knew what Alfie & Wally were going to do and still NSW struggled.This Reds /Tahs game will be a grind until the last 15mins IMO and the respective benches will play a big role.
Looking forward to this one and a good lead into the 6NS
Yep not near as much difference in the two sports these days sadly (I mean would be OK if rugby got closer but it’s league that sold their sole which has them both demeaned).
My favourite ground in Aussie along with the Manly Oval BM! I used to love walking along the Steine to the Oval when we stayed there, stop in the pub afterwards. Wonderful.
But the most atmospheric setting was Ballymore. You just don’t expect to see the ground spring up in the middle of a suburb!
Yes my reading on Origin revealed that Qld tended to pick most of the indigenous players too - guys like Jonathan Thurston.
I reckon this will go right down to the wire.
Haha yes Greg Inglis and Israel Folau were somehow Queenslanders despite growing up in nsw. Anyway I don’t care. It’s league but good reference.
And whilst soo might be more popular rugby has been playing nsw v qld for far longer!