LONG READ Why home fans will need to catch the globetrotting All Blacks when they can

Now that the Rugby Championship has been and gone, New Zealanders are running out of opportunities to see the All Blacks play on home soil before the next World Cup. The All Blacks, having played their last home Test in 2025, are going to embark on a run that will see them play only seven of their next 26 games at home.

That’s less than a quarter of their itinerary and it signifies just how heavily New Zealand Rugby’s commercial ambition is impacting where in the world the All Blacks play.

In 2022, NZR agreed a partial sale of its revenue-generating assets to US fund manager Silver Lake, and with it, embarked upon an intensified strategy to grow the global profile of the All Blacks.

The plan is to build the value of the All Blacks in major international markets such as Japan, USA, UK and Europe and turn the team into a $7 billion brand.

That’s why, last year, the All Blacks turned down the chance to play Fiji in Hamilton and instead opted to play in San Diego. That’s why they also played Japan in Tokyo last year and why, next week, they are heading back to Chicago where they will play Ireland. And it’s why a fourth Test – in Europe – will be added to next year’s Greatest Rivalry tour, which will see the All Blacks spend six weeks in South Africa.

At this stage – the schedule has not been confirmed – the All Blacks are looking at playing Ireland, Italy and France in New Zealand next year (as part of the Nations Cup), and a Test against the Wallabies.

That will be it for domestic fixtures, with 2027 bringing three home Rugby Championship Tests – and possibly one other warm-up fixture in New Zealand (but that is not agreed yet).

When the numbers are crunched, they reveal that excluding the World Cup – Scott Robertson’s All Blacks will play 63 per cent of their Tests away from home in the 2024-2027 cycle.

By comparison, in Graham Henry’s first four years (2004-2007) as head coach, the All Blacks played 47 percent of their Tests away from home.

In Steve Hansen’s first four years as head coach (2012-2015), the All Blacks played 54 per cent of their Tests away from home, and Ian Foster’s All Blacks saw that number rise to 64 per cent – albeit it was impacted by the Covid pandemic and the decision by New Zealand’s Government to close the international border in 2020 and 2021.

(If the All Blacks had been able to fulfil the schedule they were originally slated for, they would have played 58 per cent of their Tests away from home but the Rugby Championship in 2020 and 2021 was played entirely in Australia).

The pattern is there for all to see, and it has partially vindicated those such as former NZR chief executive, David Moffett, who warned, in 2021, that this trend would develop if the national body signed a private equity deal with Silver Lake.

NZR is trying to make more money from the same number of games – partly from the greater stadium capacities in foreign countries and partly from the longer-term commercial plan of winning and monetising more offshore fans.

“Because if they don’t get the return that has been worked out, then they will be looking at ways at which they can and… the first place they will look at is how many times can we get the All Blacks to play and where they can get them to play,” Moffett said.

“Will it be exhibition matches in the United States for example? But whether it’s now or in the future you will see the All Blacks playing more games and perhaps more meaningless games.”

Moffett was right that NZR has built a whole new strategy around where the All Blacks play, but his prediction that they would play more hasn’t borne true – but that’s only because there is so little capacity – either human or logistic – to add any more fixtures.

NZR is trying to make more money from the same number of games – partly from the greater stadium capacities in foreign countries and partly from the longer-term commercial plan of winning and monetising more offshore fans.

David Kirk, who captained the All Blacks to the 1987 World Cup and who took over as NZR chairman earlier this year, says: “Matchday income is increasing for a few reasons. But there is definitely a cut off on that.

“You can’t just keep squeezing the lemon on your biggest teams. We are not in a position to push them to play any more games than they are currently playing.

“So, when you talk of new international revenue a good part of that has to be outside of New Zealand.

“We have to own that. We understand that. That is a sacrifice domestic fans are going to have to make, but something we are going to have to keep in balance.

“Our job is to balance a whole lot of things that are difficult to balance. And domestic Test matches are something that needs to be balanced with the ability to generate revenue.

“The reality is people do need to get their heads around that we do need to build the All Blacks as a global brand.

The double-danger the policy runs, is that it potentially short-changes a loyal and important domestic fan base by giving them less access to the All Blacks, but it also makes it harder for the team to win at the same historic level of 76 per cent.

“We need people in other parts of the world to have the All Blacks as their second favourite team. That is what is generating all the money and keeping our players in New Zealand, keeps us investing in our domestic competitions and keeps us distributing money into the community game.

“The challenge is for us to make sure we make the most of the domestic games we have got and to utilise the All Blacks and our best players in the community and in the community game as effectively as we can.”

The double-danger the policy runs, is that it potentially short-changes a loyal and important domestic fan base by giving them less access to the All Blacks, but it also makes it harder for the team to win at the same historic level of 76 per cent.

There is a correlation between the rise in away fixtures and a reduction in the win ratio.

In the two World Cup cycles from 2012-2019, the All Blacks played 45 percent of their Tests in New Zealand, 55 per cent offshore – and won 86 per cent in that period.

In the 2020-2027 cycles, the All Blacks will split their Tests 65 per cent away, 35 percent home, and so far they have posted a 71 per cent win ratio.

Breaking it down further, of the 10 Tests (excluding World Cup) the All Blacks lost under Ian Foster, seven of them were away from home, while last year, three of the four defeats under Robertson were on foreign soil, with another this year coming in Argentina.

Kirk is clear that preserving the winning record is a critical part of the commercial strategy. The plan is to make non-New Zealanders fall in love with the All Blacks, and the hook to do that, is the way the team plays and the success they deliver on the field.

“The All Blacks have played a style of rugby for a long time now which is world leading. One thing you have to do is win. We have to maintain our winning ratio over time. And we have to do it in a way that we have always done.

David Kirk

Essentially, the All Blacks are hoping to become everyone’s second favourite team. “You don’t become a favourite team just by being loved,” Kirk says.

“We are going to be a team that people say, ‘I love how accurate they are. I love the way they carry themselves. I love the way they communicate their culture and their love of where they come from and who they are as people through the way they play rugby. Most of all the way they play and our style of rugby’.

“The All Blacks have played a style of rugby for a long time now which is world leading. One thing you have to do is win. We have to maintain our winning ratio over time. And we have to do it in a way that we have always done.

“I think we will get lots of people loving the All Blacks because we are different and who we are and we win. That is our legacy and there is no one in the All Blacks camp who would be prepared to do anything other than live up to the legacy.”

The sales pitch is compelling and the strategy, while domestic fans may not like it, does at least make sense when measured against the goal of upping the value of the All Blacks brand.

But the execution is proving decidedly more difficult and if the All Blacks can’t secure a coveted Grand Slam in November when they play Ireland, Scotland, England and Wales in consecutive weeks, serious consideration will need to be given about whether so many away fixtures is such a good idea.