LONG READ France has conquered and reconquered Europe. Can it reach its Mount Everest?

France have been steadily building this World Cup cycle better than most. A slow 2024 but constant improvement since. Excellent age profile, developed depth and more than one domestic club dominating Europe across this cycle.

While their golden generation have yet to win a RWC knockout match I see them hitting top gear in next years tournament.

Galthie may “prove the UBB philosophy can translate to the national team against the sternest of opponents”, as you demand in your conclusion, but

- since some teams in the Top14 can contain the scoring of the full complement of UBB backs, adhering to the UBB philosophy, even when the circumstances of the game - home advantage, cards etc are in favour of UBB

[J22 when UBB, home advantage, had big guns out to secure place in top 6, their backs scored 1 try, (their forwards 1 try); CC1/4 UBB, home advantage, their backs scored only twice (their forwards twice), though the opposition were down to 14 men for 30 mins opening space for the UBB attack]

- since the UBB backs are in large part the France backs

- since playing with Jalibert largely restricts Dupont to a traditional scrum half role, unable to express his full genius

that approach is highly unlikely to produce a win against the sternest of opponents, since I’m sure, if club teams can contain those backs following UBB philosophy, SA can certainly do so too.

Therefore, since the Bok pack is also stronger than the French pack, the approach you suggest holds practically no hope of winning the WC unless the food poisoning precedent is followed!!!

Of course, Galthie may take a different approach, so what the prospects are for France in the WC remains to be seen.

Neither and Ben O’Keefe recently said he enjoys making decisions when the crowd is against him.

Plus the team was overall young in terms of caps, it was their first real go at it. Next year they should be better for the experience, obviously that doesn’t mean they will win it.

Could not wait to blow his stack P.

I’m not entirely sure what will change for England, they are still missing too many players.

Baxter’s just had another surgery, so they are still a bit light at LHP.

Stuart out until next season and should have given Fasogbon a chance at International scrums.

I think they may want to try Blamire or Tuopulotu off the bench (they need a back up).

Martin is back but you may want to let him have a pre-season that play International rugby all summer (given how long he was off for).

Curry’s still injured.

Back line should improve IFW, BJvR & Furbank back will be a positive.

However, I don’t think they will be challenging the SB’s until they get their full squad back at RWC 2027. We just don’t have the power with the current injury list.

What a sweetie he came across as, shame I missed that. What a complete muppet.

It was like being back in the 1980’s again. 🤣🤣🤣

I’ve had this debate with quite a few International Players. They basically say the prep, pre-match routine, training and game plans are the same but AWAY victories are harder to get.

There is much debate about the influence of HOME fans on ref decisions, not that they are biased, just the hesitation of marginal calls and the small difference this makes in games.

I then said, if that’s the case, why are you playing the same game plan, how do you tweak the game plan to avoid those marginal calls, why do you not focus more on territory and counter attacks from broken play? It leads to quite an interesting debate.

SA are so good AWAY because they currently control games their forwards and with de Allende back at 12 - the defence is immense. This is why they are so tough to beat and they also have a counter attacking game that can score points, so they can beat you are scrum, through the forwards, or out wide - that’s a tough combination.

FRA have kicked longer when AWAY, are using the line defence to hold territory and have been experimenting with the larger Toulouse based forwards and appear to be experimenting with a more UBB mobile pack. I still think Woki will come into the bench, who has been superb for the last 2 seasons. His work rate and line out D are immense.

FRA are improving and with the 1st choice centres returning and some wider depth in that squad, whilst I think RWC 2023 was a golden opportunity, I also think RWC 2027 may be their best opportunity (if someone can take down the Boks).

The only question mark is you will have to win 5 games on the bounce to win this competition and at the moment SA are showing they are most capable but is for the other teams to raise their game and close the cap over the year ahead.

Interesting times ahead.

Yeah that was a dumb decision. And thanks SB for the note - always good to engage, debate and learn!

Yay! I just wanted you to know the reality, a lot of guys surprised me. They were quality and it showed the depth, which you never really know until they actually get out to play tests. I had an inkling the team could do well in one of the games (similar level of team beat Argentina in July 2024 before they beat the All Blacks in Wellington not long after) but to do it twice out of 3 showed it wasn’t a fluke.

I think the third test, the All Blacks were second choice or B for sure. There were some key guys like Jordan or Savea starting but then Finau was also starting.

Excited to see how New Zealand develops, sorry if you thought I was being personal because while I was having a dig I did not mean it in a bad way. I enjoy some banter and discussing the game of course, which is why I am on here!

I think this year’s squad will be stronger than last year’s but unfortunately someone super smart scheduled this test 1 week after the Top 14 final so naturally players from those 2 clubs will be excluded. Any 5 of the other Six Nations sides could’ve been picked to play but no, it was France. Regardless, it should be a good game at the new stadium 😇

Ok I agree with that for sure. You have certainly convinced me! But to say it was a D team in my mind suggested the ABs were not playing a quality side - they were and they showed that. That what I meant by an B+. Equally it was not the ABs best team in my view through injury and poor selection (or perhaps Razor was experimenting). There were what I consider to be second to third choice players in key positions and some fourth choice players too especially on the bench. I think we will be a much better squad this year and I was hoping more of the top French players would come down. Still it should be a good contest given the depth you have.

I never said collectively a D. There were many players who started tests that were not even top 3 as discussed. You don’t like the letters so I will say it was a third or fourth choice team. Galthie said this when asked about why he doesn’t include the NZ July tour statistics when discussing his side.

Ok nice list and I assume they all deserve an “A”. But the real issue, still unresolved between us - is whether those that did travel are collectively a “D”. What would happen if you adjust your scale in .3 increments - what would that show?

France premium players

Reda Wardi, Cyril Baille, Peato Mauvaka, Julien Marchand, Uini Atonio, Thibaud Flament, Emmanuel Meafou, Romain Taofifenua, François Cros, Grégory Alldritt, Charles Ollivon, Anthony Jelonch, Antoine Dupont, Nolann Le Garrec, Romain Ntamack, Matthieu Jalibert, Gaël Fickou, Yoram Moefana, Damian Penaud, Thomas Ramos

Apologies, 3 travelled. So that’s the other 17 names my friend 😁😉

Not if I see you first 😂.

PS: Newell / Tosi 3rd equal.

But Newell and EDG clearly were in the top 3, so I really struggle to agree with that list. So all of a sudden Razor was picking fourth choice players for the All Blacks home series against the French in test 1 and 2? Absolutely not.

Tosi was mounting a challenge clearly for No 2 THP too.

Unfortunately you are arguing with yourself. First, Tosi is in your initial list of not even in the top 3. Then he was mounting a challenge clearly for no 2 THP!

As to the rest, I am signing off as we seem to be talking past each other.

Yes, unfortunately the facts are not great when you look at it from an All Blacks fan’s perspective. In 2018 the team was scoring 50 2/3 times and winning with ease against a similar level of squad, perhaps even better. Only 2 debutants in the squad at that time were named. 7 years later, things are different.

Enjoy your week! I’m sure I’ll see you in the comments sooner or later.

The full quote was:

Replacements like Holland, Kirifi, Norris, Tosi, Lio-Willie, Parker, Finau, Newell, EDG were not ranked 1 or 2 or even 3 in their positions at the time.

It was a generalisation across a body of players. I accept the statement is not accurate if EDG and Newell are singled out - but I certainly stand by my observation that they were not number 1 in their positions Williams and Lomax uninjured held that spot - and Ofa of 2024 was clearly the second best LHP in my view. Tosi was mounting a challenge clearly for No 2 THP too.

As to the rest, I am signing off as we seem to be talking past each other.

What personal stuff? I read everything you said, it seems you are the one who did not read carefully. Particularly as you brought up EDG “not even in the squad for the France game”, when he didn’t start the tour due to an off field discretion which I had already pointed out. Then Razor decided to continue with the two picked looseheads until the Italy test.

Newell, EDG were not ranked 1 or 2 or even 3 in their positions at the time

This was a plain lie, copied and pasted from what you said. It’s dishonesty and I called you out on it.

Coming back to my point - if I understand your ranking correctly - you use a points system based on ranking 1-7. You the average that out to arrive at a grading. That grading therefore builds into it the scale you have used so first choice is worth 2 times the second choice, three times the third choice etc etc. The inevitable effect of this is that your analysis is heavily skewed in favour of first choice players and grossly undervalues say a fourth choice player - they are literally worth 4 times less than your first choice.

No. It’s not about “worth”, never did I talk about this. That’s something you have assumed, based on how I’ve worded things. A is a first choice player. B is a second choice player. C is a third choice player. D is a fourth choice player and so on. Galthie tracks around 100 players for the national team. A lot of those players would be 80-100 on the list, that’s the fact of it. Then when you mix in a few A/B guys like Fickou, Guillard, Attissogbe and Depoortere it takes the average squad to around C/D. If it was higher or lower, I would have absolutely no issue saying it. For you to say it was B+, shows you do not follow French rugby closely and that’s okay. If my facts upset you, then I am sorry.

BTW I plainly know the difference between the LHPs and the THPs. But it did not matter for the purpose of illustrating my point about your scale as they all fall somewhere numerically on it.

It was strange you added them all into the same list. Still, there is a big difference in my opinion between Ethan de Groot or Tamaiti Williams and Josh Fusitu’a. From the first and second choice to the seventh choice, in my opinion there is a clear difference in class. For you perhaps not, I respect that if so.

SB let’s leave out the personal stuff - it adds nothing to the argument. We can disagree on things but to suggest dishonesty is poor form. Please also read what I said carefully.

Coming back to my point - if I understand your ranking correctly - you use a points system based on ranking 1-7. You the average that out to arrive at a grading. That grading therefore builds into it the scale you have used so first choice is worth 2 times the second choice, three times the third choice etc etc. The inevitable effect of this is that your analysis is heavily skewed in favour of first choice players and grossly undervalues say a fourth choice player - they are literally worth 4 times less than your first choice.

BTW I plainly know the difference between the LHPs and the THPs. But it did not matter for the purpose of illustrating my point about your scale as they all fall somewhere numerically on it.

Certainly the game plan was working well.

True, weird how the TMO didn’t spot that to be honest.

I don’t believe a “no pressure” England team exists. It was such a bad 6N that they HAVE to perform against South Africa and hop the pressure is back.

LBB had played 30 matches and 2277 minutes. This ruled him out. Dupont had a torn ACL. Some players were below the limits and could’ve travelled but did not as they were protected. It’s always harder for props in terms of those numbers but Aldegheri had played 29 for example. Others were injured (Mauvaka). Some were above the minutes, like Penaud (2045) and Ramos (2205). Gregory Alldritt was asked to travel, presumably as captain. He was at 27 matches and 1804 minutes, felt not well enough to go and so refused. Galthie had said the premium players would not travel in June 2024, as by the agreement between the LNR and FFR.

Scott Barrett got injured in the first test. Vaa’i got injured in the second test. Now you are going to the lineup for the third test, when Razor played his weaker side as the series had been secured. McAlister was the third choice hooker, available at the time. This was because Aumua was injured. Bower was the third choice loosehead at the time, due to the injury of Williams. Papali’i was an injury cover and Razor did not favour him. Still, we are talking about an All Black who had over 30+ caps and was part of the 23s that reached a World Cup final. Not some debutant. Lio-Willie became first choice 8 at the time after getting a call up as injury cover, as Sititi was injured. No doubt because Razor wanted to play Savea at 7 which everyone was pushing for.

Did you read anything I typed? EDG was the starter for 3 out of the 6 2024 RC matches and also for the England home tests. He was dropped from the 23 after an off field discretion, which is why Williams started that November tour and Tu’ungafasi backed him up. Before then, he was first or second choice. That’s a fact. Taukei’aho spent the whole 2024 season injured. Aumua was backing up Taylor in 2024. Again, please do not try and pull the wool over my eyes. Kirifi was a novice pick but also Razor’s go to loosie off the bench to begin TRC. Wasn’t in the 23 for the second Argentina test and then came back in for both Springbok tests off the bench. Razor ain’t gonna pick someone for the Boks that’s not in his first choice 23 at the time. Holland was a “novice pick” too, who ended up starting TRC. Best available lock at the time. Yes, I’ve watched the all 4 tests multiple times. Paris, Dunedin, Wellington and Hamilton.

We can debate individual players like EDG and Newell sure

You said these guys were not top 3 at the time, this was a plain lie.

Ranking them first through seven is just not useful.

For you maybe not, but there is certainly a pecking order particularly from 1-3. The French guys who played on the tour, a lot of them were outside of this ranking.

Williams, Ofa, EDG, Newell, Tosi, Lomax, Norris, Bower, Ta’avao, Dyer, Numia, Mafileo

It’s hard to take you serious when you’re putting looseheads with tightheads to add more names. Only Williams and Ofa have played both sides at test level. Regardless, let’s go to looseheads. Williams/EDG are first or second choice. Tu’ungafasi was injured the whole of last year so it’s hard to know where he stands. He might not even be picked by Rennie. Norris and Bower are third or fourth. In terms of experience anyway, on form maybe Numia might actually be third. So you’ve got 5 guys there.

Giorgi Beria started the first test in Dunedin. A debutant, 7th choice at the time (Gros, Neti, Baille, Wardi, Erdocio, Priso). Maybe even below that, certainly now he is not there in the pecking order after a poor season. You’re going to tell me there is not much difference in someone who’s started matches in World Cup knockouts or crucial 6N matches to him?

But I could equally name a novice NZ team that would cause most teams real trouble

You could, but saying would is impossible. Because we don’t see that level of side represent the All Blacks so we just don’t know. We saw the reality of the 3 tests last year in New Zealand.

Bower is worth 4 or 5 times less than Williams

I never ever said a player would be worth that much less. But there is a huge difference between a regular international starter and a debutant or someone who has a few caps.

Oh and re B Barrett he could just have easily been replaced by DMac, Perofeta or Plummer and we would not have blinked

Well Razor would’ve. He was so reluctant to try anyone else in the 10 jersey other than McKenzie or B. Barrett in his whole tenure. Project 4 he said, but only 2 guys in his 27 tests as head coach!

* and even that scale has first choice as 3 times more valuable than 3rd choice. That is just not an accurate way to define relative competency.

I think you mistake what the letter means. Just because a player is F in the pecking order, doesn’t mean I think they are 5 times worse than the player in A. But there is certainly a big gap.

And if a player is less than 3 then they should not be playing top level professional rugby. Rework your scale SB and it might be more credible.

Again, you have missed the point. 3 or C, means third choice player. That doesn’t mean they are 3 times worse or whatever. But again, there is a difference between the first choice player and third choice player in level usually. Then when you have players who are outside the first 3 choices, there is a big gap.

Well they will have no pressure on them when they go there Alan!

I fully understand the principle ofc, but Hounkpatin would certainly improve he Bleu scrum purely from a playing standpoint!

It was a great game and I think we were i it to win it for most of the time. The pick and go try for Oguntabeju was plain wrong, Talakai was already attached to him at the back!

maybe even England in July…😉

I agree with you 100%… but that’s pushing it too far 😁

Just watched Glasgow-Connacht, ended up watching the whole thing as it was entertaining. Sam Gilbert’s terrible kick being returned to a 50/22 and the inability to take the kick off properly at 21-28 were the two defining moments for me. Gilbert might be a standout at NPC but this is the URC playoffs we are talking about.

Every time the camera panned to Stuart, he had absolutely no facial expression which made me laugh.

Darge, Dempsey and Steyn were very good. Dempsey will be a big miss for Scotland and the Warriors when he leaves.

Ok I’ll watch the former because you’re involved. I’m yet to replay Force vs Waratahs and want to replay the Japanese semi finals too.

Haouas and Houkpatin…

Both criminals.

Yet both could be decent THP for France, I agree with you on that. Both at the right age profile for the position.

For Haouas, Galthié gave him 2 second chances. Let’s remember he was the first choice THP in Galthié’s first (2020) and second (2021) 6 Nations!

Just before Atonio came back to business.

But with 16 caps, 2 yellows and 2 reds, that’s a real liability.

And Houkpatin plays now for Sénégal.

I recommend the first half of Glasgow-Connacht and Stormers-Cardiff.