Would Scotland have won if Finn Russell was playing?
For 79 minutes no one missed their exes. Ollie Smith was tearing up the Murrayfield turf from fullback. Blair Kinghorn was running the show at flyhalf. Both had scored tries in Jamie Ritchie’s first Test as Scotland’s captain. They were behind on the scoreboard but had just won a very kickable penalty with little time left on the clock.
Maybe this Autumn fling would manifest into something more serious. Perhaps you-know-who one and who-know-who two would disappear from memory, at least in the short term while Scottish rugby finds itself again. Maybe the new skipper and the new 10 and the new 15 would usher in a golden era. Maybe climate change is reversable. Maybe the housing crisis really does have a workable solution.
Then Kinghorn scuffed his shot at goal. As the ball sailed into the Edinburgh night the Murrayfield faithful erupted in cheer, believing it had sailed through the sticks. When the assistant referees kept their flags at their sides a rumbling groan rippled round the stadium. As it did so it was hard not to think of Finn Russell and Stuart Hogg.
That’s the thing about exes. You miss them at your lowest. And this was a low for Scotland. It ended a run of three consecutive wins against Australia, who fielded a depleted team and currently occupy ninth spot on World Rugby’s rankings. The home side was the better team and should have been out of sight despite the disjointed nature of the contest.
Compounding matters, one of the exes was doing the equivalent of posting Instagram stories of themselves at a cocktail party surrounded by beautiful people you just know they’re sleeping with. Russell’s points haul of 23 in Racing’s 43-38 win over Brive included a try assist. Crucially, he was successful from nine out of ten attempts from the tee.
Which leads us to the obvious question: would Scotland have won the game if Russell was playing? It’s a little complicated.
Russell is no Morne Steyn. He’s a fine goal kicker but you wouldn’t put the farm on him bisecting the poles with every swing of his boot. Last year in Scottish colours he slotted 74 percent of his attempts at goal. He’s a maverick and a game changer, a man who operates on a different plain to the rest of his peers. But let’s resist romanticising a talented but flawed player just because another man has made a mistake.
Besides, would Russell have been able to score the same try that Kinghorn registered? After Australia’s Bernard Foley fumbled the ball in contact, Scotland’s 10 hoofed it up field and ran after it, unfurling his long limbs as he blitzed past those in gold and green. He kicked it again, maintaining perfect control of it as if he were a fleet footed winger wearing the blue of Rangers. Without breaking stride he gathered it again after a kind bounce and dotted down on the slide, completed a sensational solo effort.
I’d argue that Russell doesn’t get anywhere close to doing that. He just doesn’t have the pace. That doesn’t mean Scotland wouldn’t have scored a different sort of try. A rugby match is a long, drawn out thing, and changing one player for another immediately sets in motion a completely different chain of events.
There might be an alternate dimension where Russell and Gregor Townsend are best friends and the mercurial playmaker tore the Wallabies to shreds. Or maybe he too choked on the pressure of a final kick. Or maybe he ate a dodgy pie before the match and missed it with illness. The point is we can’t deal in hypotheticals and instead must analyse what we can empirically observe. On the evidence before us Scotland won’t miss the popular pivot as much some might’ve thought.
Besides his show stopping individual try, Kinghorn was brilliant and easily the best backline player on the park. His delayed pop pass of the shoulder for the onrushing Smith was majestic and opened the space for the 22-year-old fullback to score on his home debut. Had Russell pulled off a similar assist we’d already be inundated with memes and replays of the act.
There was more to Kinghorn’s game. He made 33 metres from seven carries and broke two tackles. He kicked well out of hand and found touch five metres from the Australian line with a wonderful raking punt off the outside of his right boot. He also made 92% of his 11 tackle attempts.
This is not an overextended effort to talk down Russell or inflate Kinghorn’s contribution. The former is a one of those players that creates rugby fans and I’d dearly love to see him return to the fold. The latter is a converted fullback who made two costly errors that ultimately proved decisive on the night – the other being a misplaced floated pass to Ritchie in space, a pass that some fans on social media have suggested would have been completed had Russell flung it wide.
Instead, the point of this piece is to suggest we allow Kinghorn the opportunity the grow into the role, to redeem himself, to put the disappointment behind him. He’ll be gutted by his shanked penalty kick. Townsend and Ritchie said as much in their post-match presser. But let us not judge a player by one act alone.
Next week Scotland host Fiji which should provide Kinghorn with more time on the ball. Then comes New Zealand and a test of his skills when he has little of it. Finally, the Argentinians come to town and Scotland will be desperate for revenge after their series loss away in summer. That game will place Kinghorn under pressure and it will be interesting to see how he gets on.
Russell is in France, living his best life, making the rest of us wonder if this really is goodbye or we’re simply taking a break. I’m inclined to think this is temporary. In the meantime a more than capable replacement has the No 10 jersey. Let’s give this new relationship a chance before we slide back into Russell’s DMs.
Comments on RugbyPass
NZ 😭😭😭is certainly rivaling England for best whingers cup!😭😭😭 !!!
22 Go to commentsYup. New Zealand won 3 out of 10 world cups played. SA 4 out of 8 attempts 30 Vs 50 per cent.🤔🤔
22 Go to commentsShould've done this years ago. Change Saturday kick off times to around 11am. Up and off and back home before 3pm, limit travel time too. Allows players to actually do something else with their Saturday that's family oriented or being rugby fans they could ‘watch’ pro rugby. Increases crowds etc. How can anyone that enjoys grassroots and pro rugby have to choose between the two on Saturdays?
9 Go to commentsI bet he inspired those supporters just as much.
1 Go to commentsBen Smith Springboks living rent free in his head 😊😂
67 Go to commentsGood to hear he would like to play the game at the highest level, I hadn’t been to sure how much of a motivator that was before now. Sadly he’s probably chosen the rugby club to go to. Try not to worry about all the input about how you should play rugby Joey and just try to emulate what you do on the league field and have fun. You’ll limit your game too much (well not really because he’s a standard athlete like SBW and he’ll still have enough) if you’re trying to make sure you can recycle the ball back etc. On the other hard, you can totally just try and recycle by looking to offload any and everywhere if you’re going to ground 😋
1 Go to commentsThis just proves that theres always a stat and a metric to use to justify your abilities and your success. Ben did it last week by creating an imaginary competition and now you did the same to counter his argument and espouse a new yardstick for success. Why not just use the current one and lets say the Boks have won 4 world cups making them the most successful world cup team. Outside of the world cup the All Blacks are the most successful team winning countless rugby championships and dominating the rankings with high win percentages. Over the last 4 years statistically the Irish are the best having the highest win rate and also having positive records against every tier 1 side. The most successful Northern team in the game has been England with a world cup title and the most six nations titles in history. The AB’s are the most dominant team in history with the highest win rate and 3 world cups. Lets not try to reinvent the wheel. Just be honest about the actual stats and what each team has been good at doing and that will be enough to define their level of success.
22 Go to commentsHow is 7’s played there? I’m surprised 10 or 11 man rugby hasn’t taken off. 7 just doesn’t fit the 15s dynamics (rules n field etc) but these other versions do.
9 Go to commentsPick Swinton at your peril A liability just like JWH from the Roosters Skelton ??? went missing at RWC
14 Go to commentsLike tennis, who have a ranking system, and I believe rugby too, just measure over each period preceding a world cup event who was the longest number one and that would be it. In tennis the number one player frequently is not the grand slam winner. I love and adore the All Blacks since the days of Ian Kirkpatrick when I was a kid in SA. And still do because they are the masters of running rugby and are gentleman on and off the field - in general. And in my opinion they have been the majority of the time the best rugby team in the world.
22 Go to commentsHaving overseas possessions in 2024 is absurd. These Frenchies should have to give the New Caledonians their freedom.
21 Go to commentsBell injured his foot didn’t he? Bring Tupou in he’ll deliver when it counts. Agree mostly but I would switch in the Reds number 8 Harry Wilson for Swinton and move Rob Valentini to 6 instead. Wilson is a clever player who reads the play, you can’t outmuscle the AB’s and Springboks, if you have any chance it’s by playing clever. Same goes for Paisami, he’s a little guy who doesn’t really trouble the likes of De Allende and Jordie Barrett. I’d rather play Carter Gordon at 12 and put Michael Lynagh’s boy at 10. That way you get a BMT type goalkicker at 10 and a playmaker at 12. Anyways, just my two cents as a Bok supporter.
14 Go to commentsThanks Brett, love your articles which are alway pertinent. It’s a difficult topic trying to have a panel adjudicating consistently penalties for red card issues. Many of the mitigating reasons raised are judged subjectively, hence the different outcomes. How to take away subjective opinions?
9 Go to commentsYes Sir! Surprising, just like Fraser would also have escaped sanction if he was a few inches lower, even if it was by accident that he missed! Has there really been talk about those sanctions or is this just sensational journalism? I stopped reading, so might have missed any notations.
9 Go to commentsAI is only as good as the information put in, the nuances of the sport, what you see out the corner of the eye, how you sum up in a split second the situation, yes the AI is a tool but will not help win games, more likely contribute to a loss, Rugby Players are not robots, all AI can do if offer a solution not the solution. AI will effect many sports, help train better golfers etc.
45 Go to commentsIt couldn’t have been Ryan Crotty. He wasn’t selected in either World Cup side - they chose Money Bill instead. And Money Bill only cared about himself, and that manager he had, not the team.
28 Go to commentsYawn 🥱 nobody would give a hoot about this new trophy. End of the day we just have to beat Ireland and NZ this year then they can finally shut up 🤐
22 Go to commentsTalking bout Ryan Crotty? Heard Crotty say in a interview once that SBW doesen't care about the team . He went on to say that whenever they lost a big game, SBW would be happy as if nothing happened, according to him someone who cares would look down.. Personally I think Crotty is in the wrong, not for feeling gutted but for expecting others 2 be like him… I have been a bad loser forever as it matters so much to me but good on you SBW for being able to see the bigger picture….
28 Go to commentsThis sounds like a WWE idea so Americans can also get excited about rugby, RUGBY NEEDS A INTERNATIONAL CALENDER .. The rugby Championship and Six Nations can be held at same time, top 3 of six nations and top 3 of Rugby championship (6 nations should include Georgia AND another qualifying country while Fiji, Japan and Samoa/Tonga qualifier should make out 6 Southern teams).. Scrap June internationals and year end tours. Have a Elite top six Cup and the Bottom 6 in a secondary comp….
22 Go to commentsThe rugby championship would be even stronger with Fiji in it… I know it doesen’t fit the long term plans of NZ or Aus but you are robbing a whole nation of being able to see their best players play for Fiji…. Every second player in NZ and AUS teams has Fijian surnames… shame on you!!! World rugby won’t step in either as France and England has now also joined in…. I guess where money is involved it will always be the poor countries missing out….
90 Go to comments