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World Rugby U20 Championship: Semi-final permutations
The 2019 World Rugby U20 Championship has delivered its fair share of thrills and spills over the two opening game days and as teams prepare for the third and final matchday of the group stage, there are plenty of runners and riders to join Australia in the semi-finals, the only side so far to book their place.
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Australia‘s comprehensive wins over Italy and Ireland have secured them a semi-final, with their 10 points in Pool B unsurpassable, thanks to their win over Ireland, which gives them the head-to-head advantage over the U20 Six Nations Grand Slam winners, should Ireland manage to match them on 10 points following their game with Italy on Wednesday. With Australia set to finish against England, with the perennial powerhouses at this level having performed poorly this season, there is a good chance that Jason Gilmore’s team could secure another win and a high seeding for the semi-finals.
Staying in Pool B, Ireland’s slim chances of qualifying revolve around them securing a bonus point win against Italy, which will take them to 10 points and open up the possibility of qualifying as the best runner up. With a current points difference of -12 and both South Africa and New Zealand sitting on 10 points in Pool C and boasting points differences of over +50, it would take a large swing for Ireland to have a shot, with a differential of over 60 having to be manufactured from an Ireland win over Italy and the game between South Africa and New Zealand. Furthermore, it would also require France to beat Argentina in Pool A, or for the hosts to beat France so comprehensively as to bring down the reigning World Rugby U20 Champions’ points difference from +35 to a figure that Ireland could catch.
England’s inability to pick up a bonus point in their narrow win over Italy cost them a shot at the semi-finals, whilst Italy sit winless after two games and will be hoping to spring an upset against Ireland in order to book a more favourable seeding in the 4th-8th or relegation brackets off the competition’s playoff stage.
Pool A is a little more straightforward than the complex mix of requirements in Pool B. France top the group on 10 points and a win or draw against Argentina will be enough to see them through as pool winners. Argentina have six points and a win – whilst denying France a losing or try bonus point – would be enough to see them through as pool winners, or a bonus point win over France would be enough for Argentina to top the group, should France manage to pick up a bonus point in that game, thanks to Argentina then having the head-to-head advantage over France in both scenarios. In the unlikely event that France were to lose to Argentina, but still pick up two bonus points, they would finish top of the pool.
Topping the pool is not the only way through to the semi-finals for Argentina, however, whose six points give them a shot at the best runner up spot, too. A win would take them to 10 points, potentially putting them into a points difference battle with Ireland, should they win against Italy, and the loser of the New Zealand vs South Africa game. A bonus point win would take them beyond any total Ireland can amass, as well as beyond the loser in the New Zealand vs South Africa game, presuming the loser were unable to pick up any bonus points. Should the loser pick up a bonus point, it would go down to battle of points difference and Argentina’s current tally of +22 gives them a puncher’s chance.
The other match in Pool A sees Wales take on Fiji, with Wales’ total of four points, like England, ruling them out of a chance at the semi-finals. Fiji have no points to show for their first two games and will be keen to try and pick some up in order to avoid going into the relegation bracket as the 12th overall seed.
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It’s winner takes all in Pool C, with both New Zealand and South Africa tied on 10 points and set to play each other for top spot. Even their points differences are almost inseparable, with South Africa on +52 and New Zealand on +51. In the case of a draw, South Africa would go through as group winners thanks to that slight points difference advantage and New Zealand would qualify as the best runner up, with no other team in the competition capable of making the 12-point mark that they would be on. Should one of the two sides in a draw manage to grab a try bonus point and the other were not to, then they would qualify as pool winners.
Should the more likely outcome of a winner and loser occur, then the previously mentioned permutations of points difference and losing bonus points could be important. If the loser picks up one losing bonus point, Ireland, no matter their points difference, can no longer catch them, whilst if they pick up two, Argentina can similarly no longer catch them, no matter their points difference.
The other game of Scotland vs Georgia will have no bearing on the semi-finals, although with Georgia sharing Fiji’s fate of currently being on zero points, it does have intriguing connotations for the upcoming relegation bracket of the playoffs.
These final group games will be played on Wednesday, before the playoff stage begins on Monday.
Watch: Nehe Milner-Skudder’s hopes of making the World Cup are over
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Comments on RugbyPass
Gee my Highlanders were terrible. They have gone backwards since the start of the season. The trouble began when we left Millar behind to prep as the 10 against the Brumbies and he was disconnected from the team that came back from Aussie. We rested Patchell for that game and we blew an avalanche of ball in good attacking positions in the 1st half. Against the Rebels we seem to of gone into a pod system with forwards hanging off from the breakdown leaving Fakatava to secure our ball!
72 Go to commentsPot Kettle, the English and French teams have done it for years.
19 Go to commentsHas virtually played every minute of previous games. Back row of Li Lo Willie , Grace and Blackadder would be the 1. Crusaders issue is a very average 1st 5 who cannot run. Kicking in general play is also below par They need to put Yong Kemara in. He must have so.e talent for them to bring him down from Waikato. Hoehepa would struggle to play in so.e club sided
4 Go to commentsI hope this a good thing making all these changes!
2 Go to commentsThe Hurricanes are good, especially with a decent coach now. However, let’s be real, the Crusaders and Chiefs are clearly a good degree weaker without the players they’ve lost overseas now. The Canes lost one player. It’s also why the aussie teams ‘seem’ to be stronger.
9 Go to commentsOr you could develop your own players instead of constantly taking from the SH competition and weakening it in the process? With all the player and financial resources these unions have compared to SH countries you’d think they could manage that, or is weakening the SH comps and their national sides an added bonus? Probably.
3 Go to commentsNot so fast Aaron, we might need you in black yet lol. God knows he’d be a lot less nerve-racking than hot and (very) cold players like Perofeta. It’s really a shame Reuben Love isn’t playing 10, we’ve got enough 15 options.
4 Go to commentsAnd those from the NH still seem to be puzzled (and delighted) why NZ’s depth isn’t what it once was. Over 600 NZ players overseas, that’s insane. This sort of deal is why Super Rugby coaches have admitted they struggle now to find enough quality to fill out their squads.
6 Go to commentsArticle intéressant ! La question devrait régulièrement se poser pour les jeunes français originaires de Nouvelle-Calédonie, Wallis-et-Futuna et de Polynésie entre la Nouvelle-Zélande et la Métropole… Difficile pour la fédération française de rugby de se positionner : soit le choix est fait de dénicher les jeunes talents et de les faire venir très tôt en Métropole, au risque de les déraciner, soit on prend le risque de se les faire “piller” par les All Blacks qui, telle une araignée, essaye de récupérer tous les talents des îles du Pacifique… À la France de se défendre en développant l’aura du XV de France et des clubs français dans ses collectivités d’Outre-mer !
3 Go to commentsWrong bay. He needs to come to the REAL BAY which is Bay Of Plenty and have a crack at making the Chiefs.
3 Go to commentsIs Barrett going play full back??? They already have all the centers…
15 Go to commentsForgive my ignorance, I might not fully understand so would appreciate clarification: Didn’t the Bulls have to fly with three different carriers, paid for by the South African Rugby Union, whilst Edinburgh got a chartered flight sponsored by EPCR? Also, as far as I understand it South African teams don’t yet share in the revenue from the competition and are not allowed to host Semi-finals or Finals at home. Surely if everyone wants South Africans to “take the competition seriously” then they must make South Africans feel welcome, allow them to share in the revenue, and give them the same levels of access as the teams from the other countries. Just a reminder that South Africa has a large and passionate Rugby audience. Just by virtue of our teams being a part of these competitions means that more of us are likely to watch the knockout games, even if our teams haven’t qualified. It would be silly to alienate such a large audience by making them feel unwelcome.
19 Go to commentsFirst of all. This guy is very much behind the curve. All the bleating, whingeing, whining and moaning took place days ago already. Not adding anything to the topic other than more bleating, whingeing, whining and moaning. 🍼 Second of all, not one mention of the fact that South African teams can’t get home semi finals or finals. The tournament was undermined and devalued by the administrators. 🤡 Thirdly, football teams often have to juggle selections in mid week games, premier games, champions league games etc. and will from time to time prioritize certain titles over others. 🐒 And lastly FEK Neil, and anyone else for that matter, for insisting on telling teams how to manage themselves. If they make what is largely a business decision that suits them and doesn’t suit you - tough shite. 💩 It’s not rocket science as to why the Bulls did what they did. If this guy is too slow to figure it out (and is deliberately not mentioning one of the key reasons why) then he isn’t a journalist. He should join the rest of us pundit plebs in comments section. 🥴
19 Go to commentsSo the first door to knock on Rob is Parliament followed by HMRC. The Irish Revenue deliver a 40% tax relief rebate on the HIGHEST EARNING TEN YEARS of every pro Irish rugby players contract earnings at retirement. That goes a long way to both retaining their best talent and freeing up wages for marquee players. Who knows, if that had been in place in the UK, you might not have been able to poach Hoggy and Jonny Gray from Glasgow…!!!
3 Go to comments1. True, if that “free” ticket means access to all but the prized exhibit - EVIP only. SA cannot host semis, even if they’ve earned it (see Sharks vs ASM Clermont Auvergne at… Twickenham Stoop). 2. Why no selective outrage over Lyon doing the exact same thing a week earlier? Out of all the countries France send the most “B teams”, why nobody talking about “disrespect” and “prioritising domestic leagues” and “kicking them out”? 3. Why no mention of the Sharks fielding all of their Springboks for the second rate Challenge cup QF? No commitment? 4. Why no mention of all the SA teams qualifying for respective euro knock out comps in the two seasons they’ve been in it? How many euro teams have qualified for KO’s in their history? Can’t compete? 5. Why no mention of SA teams beating French and English giants La Rochelle and Saracens? How many euro teams have done that in their history? Add no quality? The fact is that SA teams are only in their second season in europe, with no status and a fraction of the resources. Since joining the URC, SA has seen a repatriation of a number of players, and this will only grow once SA start sharing in the profits of competing in these comps, meaning bigger squads with greater depth and quality, meaning they don’t have to prioritise comps as they have to now - they don’t have imports from Pacifica and South America and everywhere else in between like “European” teams have - also less “Saffas” in Prem and T14, that’s what we want right? 'If the South Africans are in, they need to be all in' True, and we have to ensure we give them the same status and resources as we give everyone else to do just that. A small compromise on scheduling will go a long way in avoiding these situations, but guess what, France and England wont compromise on scheduling because they ironically… prioritise their domestic comps, go figure!
19 Go to commentsthe success of the premiership can be summarized by : only 10 teams. It makes a huge difference with the overcrowded top 14 (let us not talk about Leinster and URC…)
1 Go to commentsGood for him. The ABs were fooling around again with converted fullbacks that had a penetration of a marshmallow. Laumape or as Aki has shown for Ireland, go forward is important in the centres. If it had been DMac - Aki- Aumua - Ioane- Telea- Jordan in France the final result would have been different.
4 Go to commentsDan Carter a apporté son professionnalisme, des méthodes de travail, un esprit qui manquaient à l’USAP. Son influence, même une fois blessé a été énorme. Et pour citer une anecdote, certains soirs il venait de lui-même à l’entraînement des jeunes pour dispenser ses conseils. On ne peut pas compter ce qu’il a apporté au club en heures de jeu sur le terrain. Est-ce que le club en a eu pour son argent ? Avec la publicité sur son nom et le titre, je suppose que oui.
1 Go to commentsThe SA sides are suffering from a bum rap here. There isn’t a side anywhere in the world that would do things differently in their shoes. They’ve been set up to fail in the EPCR comps by vested interests, with last minute intercontinental travel requirements that costs an arm and a leg to book in advance just on the possibility they might be required. And the total nonsense that denies any chance of home venues is entirely biased and absolutely unsporting. Either EPCR, the Top14 & the Gallagher Premiership get it sorted on a fair and equitable sporting basis for ALL participants or expect the ridicule to continue. Right now, these comps are a joke!
19 Go to commentsSA sides should do the right thing and leave the champions cup, they are lowering the standard with completely one sided games, not up to the right level. The greatest club tournament in the world is being banjaxed by the weak SA sides.
19 Go to comments