LONG READ Win-win-win or bust for Leinster as big names floated for top job

“Obviously, we’re on the wrong side again,” Caelan Doris admitted, “but I do believe that we’ve got the right people in the right places and the right systems in order to get back there next year.”

Doris had the dubious honour of fronting up, as Leinster captain, after his team’s fifth Champions Cup Final loss in a seven-year span. Doris started the 2024 final as captain but James Ryan, who had shared season-long duties with Garry Ringrose, faced the press, that day.

“When you want to achieve great things,” Ryan observed, “you always have the risk of failing greatly, as well.”

Last Saturday, in Bilbao, Leinster failed and there was nothing great about it. Of their unfortunate quintet of Champions Cup Final defeats, the 41-19 surrender to Bordeaux was over by half-time.

Those comments from Doris, and head coach Leo Cullen saying Leinster were ‘not a million miles away’, can, in part, be explained by shell-shock of the Bordeaux blitz. One can draw up all the attacking plans and defensive triggers one wants, but it is hard to throw a net over Maxime Lucu, Matthieu Jalibert, Damian Penaud and scintillating Louis Bielle-Biarrey, all at once.

The more concerning sound-bites emerged at Leinster’s Tuesday press briefing. Held as part of the media obligations to help preview, and promote, Saturday’s United Rugby Championship quarter final against Lions, most reporters wanted to pick back over that chastening loss in Bilbao.

“You give a team like that opportunity and they’ll take it,” Andrew Porter conceded. “There’s a few times where it was just like – unlucky, a bounce of a ball, couldn’t get a block down and it goes into their hands or a breakaway intercept. You give a team that much of a leg up, it’s obviously incredibly tough to come back from.”

French teams have now won the last six Champions Cup finals, but Porter does not feel Top 14 powerhouses are pulling away from the pack. “We know how good of a team we are,” the loosehead insisted.
“From our team, we know we have the players to do it. It’s just, the ball just didn’t go our way sometimes. And there’s just a few errors here and there that cost us… I don’t think it’s we’re too far off, in terms of the quality.”

With only the URC playoffs left on the calendar, Leinster are not for changing, now. They cannot allow doubt to creep in, although it would be impossible for it not to.

Leinster assistant coach, Tyler Bleyendaal was also up for press duties, responding to criticism that his side “over-played” in attack. “I don’t necessarily agree with that,” the province’s attack coach contested. “We would have played well, often, with ball-in-hand, to get us to their 22. We just weren’t really effective, or accurate, when we got there.”

“We absorbed pressure and scored the first try, which was pleasing,” the Kiwi added, “but from minute eight to the 26th minute, we had less than a minute of possession. We definitely didn’t overplay, in that period of time.”

With only the URC playoffs left on the calendar, Leinster are not for changing, now. They cannot allow doubt to creep in, although it would be impossible for it not to.

Six of the players that were in Saturday’s match-day squad were involved in the 2019 final defeat to Saracens. Being fair to the current crop, that was a different iteration of a side now led by Doris. There will always be personnel changes, season to season, but this set of Leinster players are men that have now lost four finals, and last year’s semi-final to Northampton, in the past five seasons.

Most of the players are in their late 20s and early 30s. They can say all they want to the media, and those outside the changing room, but serious concerns must be seeping in. Invading thoughts. They will ask questions of themselves, and surely most have endured tough moments of introspection. Many, if they are being honest, will be questioning their coaches, their decisions, tactics and selections. That is human nature.

Stuart Lancaster was the man that brought in the ‘drive for five’ mentality, around the Champions Cup, when he arrived at Leinster, in 2016. This was when the province had three title triumphs to its’ name. Rob Kearney and Devin Toner were part of the team that won number four in Bilbao, in 2018. They both told Off The Ball, last week, the overwhelming full-time sensation was one of relief. One closer to five.
The obsession with claiming a fifth star and, at the time, surpassing Toulouse (then on four) ultimately went against Leinster. With every losing final, the pressure mounted. Leinster announced, at the start of this season, their logo – for home and away URC jerseys – would no longer feature the four stars. They were looking to move on.

Leinster returned to the Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose centre partnership. Neither stamped themselves on the final.

Lancaster had already moved on, at the end of the 2022/23 season. Crucially, Johnny Sexton, who missed that 2023 final due to injury, was also retiring. If you look at the last three Champions Cup campaigns, under the new coaching group – Leo Cullen overseeing with Jacques Nienaber and Tyler Bleyendaal looking after defence and attack – there have been slip-ups.

In the final defeat to Toulouse, Leinster went the whole season without even thinking of dropping for goal, then did so twice in the final minutes. Ciarán Frawley missed both. The following season, Northampton bravely went wide to burn the edges of Nienaber’s blitz defence. Leinster also left Jordie Barrett on the bench until it was too late. Sam Prendergast started that game and was hunted down by Saints shooters. This time around, Leinster settled on Harry Byrne as their 10, but hauled him off after 43 minutes. James Lowe was not in the match-day 23 and injury-prone RG Snyman’s season was already long over. They also returned to the Robbie Henshaw and Garry Ringrose centre partnership, and neither stamped themselves on the final. All the while, there has been grumbling about the reduced focus, and reps, for attacking plays.

Heading into this Saturday’s URC quarter final against Lions, it is likely that Cullen and Nienaber will stay on until the end of the 2026/27 season. Bleyendaal’s position, from the outside, looks the most vulnerable. Leinster are working extremely hard, with heaps of time in possession, for their scores, while several French and English sides are making hay with a smart kicking game and creating chaos with intent.

That being said, failure at home, in the quarters or semi-finals, would lead to a chorus for Leinster to make coaching changes. Even reaching another failure and not getting over the line may not be enough for Cullen and this coaching staff. Such are the high standards Leinster – a squad stacked with Ireland and Lions stars – are held to. They are in win, win, win-or-bust territory.

Lancaster is certainly an option, too. He is making decent strides with Connacht, and could easily return to lead a rejigged coaching set-up.

A five-game winning streak for Ivan van Rooyen’s Lions secured them playoff rugby, but they lost twice on their May sojourn to Ireland. They go into this weekend’s game having last won against Connacht, on April 25th. They provided Leinster a much stiffer test, earlier this month, than the 31-7 final scoreline suggests. The game was still up for decision until Leinster pulled away with three tries in the final 10 minutes.
Another quarter final to take a look at, from a Leinster perspective, is Connacht’s trip to face Glasgow Warriors. The Scots will be favourites to reach the last four, but Connacht have finished the season strongly. Stuart Lancaster’s side have won nine of their last 11 games, picking up notable away victories over Ulster, Stormers and, back in February, Glasgow. Lancaster has already guided the Westerners back to next season’s Champions Cup, but has loftier ambitions.

Leinster will be looking to make coaching changes in the near future. Even if Cullen, Nienaber and Bleyendaal stay on for 2026/27, the province will take on a new leadership direction from the summer of 2027. Andy Farrell’s likely involvement in the 2029 Lions Tour to New Zealand may rule him out. Leinster should still make their enquiries and see if Ireland’s top man could be tempted back to club rugby.

Lancaster is certainly an option, too. He is making decent strides with Connacht, and could easily return to lead a rejigged coaching set-up. Richie Murphy likewise, but Ulster’s flat end to this campaign has not helped his cause. Other names being mentioned are Ronan O’Gara and Felipe Contepomi, while former Ireland flanker Alan Quinlan has suggested ex-All Blacks coach, Scott Robertson.

One of the biggest names of the lot is someone many Leinster fans still pine for. Joe Schmidt finishes up with the Wallabies after this summer’s Test swing. He turns 61 in September and has not been involved in the day-to-day running of a club side (barring a brief assistant coach role with the Blues) since 2013.

If Schmidt could be tempted back to the northern hemisphere, it may well be in a director of rugby role at Leinster, giving him rein to hire an elite coaching team.

For Cullen, Nienaber and Leinster, such talk will not be lessen by their URC feats and deeds in the coming week(s). The risk of failing greatly awaits.