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Why the Wallabies will win this year's World Cup
It would go down in history as the most incredible World Cup triumph of all time, but the Wallabies could stun rugby fans around the globe later this year.
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The Wallabies have been written off by many pundits and fans around the world; cast aside as nothing more than a fallen giant of the sport known as rugby union.
Even Stirling Mortlock, who captained the Wallabies at the 2007 World Cup, insisted Australia is “no chance” of winning this year’s tournament following their shock loss to Italy last November.
Ouch.
And let’s face it, that first-ever loss to the Azzurri was only the tip of the iceberg.
The Wallabies avoided their worst ever season since 1958 with an incredible comeback win over Wales during the Autumn Nations Series.
Australia fought valiantly in the final quarter of the test, as they overturned a 19-point deficit to stun the Cardiff crowd.
But that victory, while impressive, doesn’t exactly right the wrongs from the year that was. It was a disastrous campaign, and that’s concerning going into a World Cup year.
But not all hope is lost.
In reality, the Wallabies weren’t themselves last year – they were the wounded Wallabies, and they still managed to challenge some of the best teams in the world.
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More than 50 players donned the coveted gold jersey last year, as the Wallabies experienced what can only be described as an injury crisis.
Coach Dave Rennie was unable to pick his best team week-to-week, so the Wallabies lacked cohesion in some key positions out on the field.
But even still, without superstars such as Quade Cooper, Samu Kerevi, Angus Bell and Matt Philip, the men in gold managed to showcase their flair.
While wins proved hard to come by, they did fall agonisingly short of wins over Ireland, France and the All Blacks – the top three teams in the world. And they probably deserved to win these matches too.
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Australia did manage to record statement wins over England and South Africa this year; in review, proving to the rugby world that they can match it with the top five teams in the world.
And then there’s the Wallabies, currently ranked sixth in the world, who are widely considered a dark horse for this year’s World Cup as opposed to a contender.
Yes, rugby is a results driven business, but the Wallabies are frustratingly underrated.
If they had their best players to pick from, which they should do next year, then they’ll be more than capable of an upset or two. In fact, with Cooper and Kerevi back in the fold, they’ll have the best backline in the world.
The Wallabies will be raring to go by the time the World Cup rolls around, and they can take some confidence out of the tournaments draw as well.
As it stands, the Wallabies won’t have to face any of the top four teams in the men’s world rankings until at least the semi-finals.
Australia have been drawn in a pool along with familiar foes Wales and Fiji – two teams they played against at both the 2015 and 2019 World Cups.
Wales are a mess; they’re a shadow of their former selves at the moment. As for Fiji, they’re capable of an upset as we saw at the 2007 tournament, but Australia has the talent to record a comfortable win.
Should everything go to plan and Australia tops Pool C, then they’ll probably face either Japan or Argentina in the quarterfinal – presuming England tops that group.
Los Pumas did a number on the Wallabies in Mendoza last year, beating them 48-17 in August. It was a vastly different performance from both teams following Australia’s 15-point win the week before.
The Rugby Championship will be a telling indicator of where these two teams are at mere months out from the Cup, but the Wallabies will be better.
They just have to be.
If they can do what they did going into 2015, where they learnt from their mistakes, then the Wallabies will pose a threat. They’re a better team than Argentina, but it’s up to them to prove that when it counts.
A semi-final clash with one of the top four teams in World Rugby would await the men in gold.
Again, Australia showed that they can match it with these teams, and with their best players fit and available, there’s no reason why they can’t win any of these matchups.
The Wallabies are a team with nothing to lose. That’s not to say they’re playing without pressure, no team is, but I’m sure they’ll happily adopt the underdog tag at this stage of the tournament.
Whether they play Ireland, France, New Zealand or South Africa in this hypothetical semi-final, it wouldn’t matter.
These four teams would’ve faced at least one other top four side in pool play, and another giant of the international game in the quarters.
Fatigue and pressure make a difference at World Cups. These four teams will be feeling it more than the Wallabies.
The rugby world could than bear witness to a potential blockbuster between England and Australia, 20 years on from their final at the 2003 tournament.
On the other hand, they could potentially face any of the four teams I just mentioned above.
It’s all hypothetical, but especially in a final, anything can happen.
The Wallabies will have the best backline in international rugby next year. Their forward pack will be much improved after a review this offseason.
Michael Hooper is returning to career-best form, and whether he’s got the captaincy or not, he’ll continue to lead by example as he always has.
Their Achilles heel will be their discipline, and that was ultimately the difference in some thrilling tests this year.
But should they get that right, and have their best players to choose from, then Australia can make the most of the ‘easier’ side of the draw.
The New Year is a time for optimism; it’s a time for dreams, ambition and desire.
Don’t sleep on the Wallabies because a new year is upon us, and they’ll be a very different team – just watch.
Comments on RugbyPass
The Springboks tried going down the road of only picking home-based players and it was an unmitigated disaster in 2016 and 2017. Picking overseas-based players has been one of the main reason the Boks have done so well since 2018, not only because of the quality Rassie could call on, but because of the knowledge and experience those players brought into camp from England, France and Japan. With some of the big names playing abroad it also gave younger players in SA the chance to break through at franchise level. Would we have seen the emergence of a Ruan Nortje if RG and Lood were still at the Bulls? Not so sure. I understand why Jake would want to block players leaving since his job depends on good results but it’s an approach that would take Bok rugby back to the bad old days and no South African wants to see that.
8 Go to commentsExeter were thumped by 38 points. And they only had to hop on a train.
34 Go to commentsI am De Groot.
1 Go to commentsHad hoped you might write an article on this game, Nick. It’s a good one. Things have not gone as smoothly for ROG since beating Leinster last year at the Aviva in the CC final. LAR had the Top 14 Final won till Raymond Rhule missed a simple tackle on the excellent Ntamack, and Toulouse reaped the rewards of just staying in the fight till the death. Then the disruption of the RWC this season. LAR have not handled that well, but they were not alone, and we saw Pau heading the Top 14 table at one stage early season. I would think one of the reasons for the poor showing would have to be that the younger players coming through, and the more mature amongst the group outside the top 25/30, are not as strong as would be hoped for. I note that Romain Sazy retired at the end of last season. He had been with LAR since 2010, and was thus one of their foundation players when they were promoted to Top 14. Records show he ended up with 336 games played with LAR. That is some experience, some rock in the team. He has been replaced for the most part by Ultan Dillane. At 30, Dillane is not young, but given the chances, he may be a fair enough replacement for Sazy. But that won’be for more than a few years. I honestly know little of the pathways into the LAR setup from within France. I did read somewhere a couple of years ago that on the way up to Top 14, the club very successfully picked up players from the academies of other French teams who were not offered places by those teams. These guys were often great signings…can’t find the article right now, so can’t name any….but the Tadgh Beirne type players. So all in all, it will be interesting to see where the replacements for all the older players come from. Only Lleyd’s and Rhule from SA currently, both backs. So maybe a few SA forwards ?? By contrast, Leinster have a pretty clear line of good players coming through in the majority of positions. Props maybe a weak spot ? And they are very fleet footed and shrewd in appointing very good coaches. Or maybe it is also true that very good coaches do very well in the Leinster setup. So, Nick, I would fully concurr that “On the evidence of Saturday’s semi-final between the two clubs, the rebuild in the Bay of Biscay is going to take longer than it is on the east coast of Ireland”
11 Go to commentsWhat was the excuse for the other knockout blowouts then? Does the result not prove the Saints were just so much better? Wise call to put your eggs in one basket when you’ve got 2 comps simultaneously finishing.
34 Go to commentsReally hope Kuruvoli and his partner rock the Canes.
1 Go to commentsI wonder what impact Samson has had on their attack, as the team seems less prone to trundle it up the middle, take the tackle and then trundle it up again. I lost faith in the coach last year as the Rebelss looked like a 2nd/3rd rate South African team. I also disliked Gordon standing back, often ignored as the forward battle went on and on. Maybe its our Aussie way of not getting off our A***’s until the enemy is at the gate.
86 Go to commentsThanks for the write up. Great to see the Rebs winning, I am a little interested in how they will go against the remaining kiwi teams, I think they’ve only played Hurricanes and Highlanders but how great to see these players performing!! I also see Parling has a job beyond June 30! A good move by RA? Also how do you fix the Rebels previously scratchy defence?
86 Go to commentsbe smart - go black
13 Go to commentsNext week the Crusaders hopefully have Scott Barrett back. Will be great to have the captain back. Hopefully he will be the All Black captain as well.
12 Go to commentsExciting place to be for the young fella. I expected he was French Polynesian when I saw him included in the France 6N squad (after seeing him in NZs), and therefor be strong grounds we might loose him to rugby down here. Good, in that he is good enough to warrant such a profile, and from a journalism’s fan interaction aspect, to finally get a back ground story on the fella. Hope he has settled into NZ OK and that at least one rugby country will fit with him to help his development, which, if so, he should surely continue for a few years, and then that he can experience France to it’s fullest with a bit more maturity and less reliance on family than you would have at his current age. A good 3 or 4 years before he would be ready for International duty if he wanted to wait. Of course he already sounds good enough to accept a call up, and to cap himself, in the more immediate future (he’d have to be very very good in the case of the ABs), and he’ll get a great taste of that being with the Canes who have a bunch who are just a few years further into their career and looking likely Internationals themselves.
13 Go to commentsI remember towards the end of the original broadcasting deal for Super rugby with Newscorp that there was talk about the competition expanding to improve negotiations for more money - more content, more cash. Professional rugby was still in its infancy then and I held an opposing view that if Super rugby was a truly valuable competition then it should attract more broadcasters to bid for the rights, thereby increasing the value without needing to add more teams and games. Unfortunately since the game turned professional, the tension between club, talent and country has only grown further. I would argue we’re already at a point in time where the present is the future. The only international competitions that matter are 6N, RC and RWC. The inter-hemisphere tours are only developmental for those competitions. The games that increasingly matter more to fans, sponsors and broadcasters are between the clubs. Particularly for European fans, there are multiple competitions to follow your teams fortunes every week. SA is not Europe but competes in a single continental competition, so the travel component will always be an impediment. It was worse in the bloated days of Super rugby when teams traversed between four continents - Africa, America, Asia and Australia. The percentage of players who represent their country is less than 5% of the professional player base, so the sense of sacrifice isn’t as strong a motivation for the rest who are more focused on playing professional rugby and earning as much from their body as they can. Rugby like cricket created the conundrum it’s constantly fighting a losing battle with.
8 Go to commentsOh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
34 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
8 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
8 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
13 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
11 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
11 Go to comments