Title favourites? How the All Blacks have a 53 percent chance of winning the World Cup
From commentators, sports betting sites, to World Cup fortune-telling animals, there are plenty of places fans can turn to when predicting the winner of the 2019 Rugby World Cup.
However, few turn to science. And according to expert analytics led by Senior Fellow at Motu Economic and Policy Research Niven Winchester, the All Blacks have a 53.6 per cent chance of winning the Webb Ellis Cup.
Statistical models developed by Winchester for analytics website Rugby Vision, build rating systems for international teams to estimate the expected result for each game.
In the current Rugby Vision Global Rankings, New Zealand are at the top of the table even though Wales are number one in the official World Rugby rankings.
The All Blacks lead in ranking points based on statistics from winning when they are expected to lose, winning by more points than expected and loses by fewer points than expected.
Additionally, England and South Africa are ranked higher by Rugby Vision than World Rugby.
In the Rugby Vision rankings, unlike in the official ratings, differences between rating points for any two teams equal the predict score margin for a game played at a neutral venue.
The All Blacks lead in ranking points based on statistics from winning when they are expected to lose, winning by more points than expected and loses by fewer points than expected.
Additionally, England and South Africa are ranked higher by Rugby Vision than World Rugby.
In the Rugby Vision rankings, unlike in the official ratings, differences between rating points for any two teams equal the predict score margin for a game played at a neutral venue.
If the strongest team according to Rugby Vision’s rankings always won, is shows how the knockout stages of the World Cup would play out.
However, as Japan’s shock victory over South Africa in the 2015 World Cup and New Zealand’s early exit from the 2007 tournament illustrate, upsets do happen.
The ratings estimate that the All Blacks would beat England by 6.81 points on average, but in some of those 100 games New Zealand would win by more or fewer than 7 points, England would win some games, and a small number of games would be drawn.
It turns out that, according to the Rugby Vision’s model, the All Blacks would win 68 of the 100 games, England would win 29, and three games would be drawn.
Continue reading below…
Simulating the Rugby World Cup
To determine the probability of each team advancing to various stages of the Rugby World Cup, Rugby Vision simulated the tournament 10,000 times.
For each game in each simulation, a different value is used to account for the variation in expected score margin.
On average, higher-ranked teams have a greater chance of progressing to the various knock out stages.
According to Rugby Vision, New Zealand are clear favourites with a 68.1 per cent chance of qualifying for the final and a 53.6 per cent chance of winning the competition.
Despite playing in arguably the toughest pool, England are second-favourites, with a 15.5 per cent probability of winning the tournament, followed by South Africa with a 12.9 per cent chance.
The estimates also reveal that while it is highly likely that New Zealand and South Africa will qualify for the knock-out stages in Pool B, other pools are more competitive.
In Pool A, Japan has a 26.7 per cent chance of qualifying for quarterfinals, at the expense of Ireland or Scotland; there should be a tight competition between France and Argentina for the second quarterfinal spot in Pool C; and there is a 10.4 per cent chance that Fiji will cause an early exit for either Wales or Australia in Pool D.
The All Blacks will play South Africa, Canada, Namibia and Italy in pool matches starting on September 21, before heading into the knockout rounds.
This article first appeared on nzherald.co.nz and was republished again with permission.
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Comments on RugbyPass
The Black Ferns 7’s have been without Captain Sarah Hirini now since Dec 23 in Dubai where she suffered a bad ACL injury - hopefully she is on the road to recovery for Madrid and Paris. Now also have Tyler King and Shiray kaka on the Injured List but the Team still found a way to win in Singapore and claim the overall Title.
1 Go to commentsUtter grub, hope he gets his leg broken. Shocking he is still playing after intentionally breaking quinn tupaeas knee
2 Go to commentsGreat to see NZ 7s teams finally coming into form and playing at the level that is expected of them.
2 Go to commentsChief Cheapshot on the market again.
2 Go to commentsCrusaders went all in to buy Hotham and Kemara staight from Hamilton Boys. Then they picked up Reihana and Hohepa; all have been dropped for superstar Havili, who is a very good fullback, that’s it. Ennor and Goodhue were schoolboy stars too but went backwards at the Crusaders. Maybe they have finally decided to give another poach Levi Aumua the ball?
10 Go to commentsJoe S has some talent to pick from. The Reds loosies look the best in Super? Aus might just give Razor a headache this year. Int. experience v Cantab greenhorn:) Should be fun.
10 Go to commentsEnd to end play, “THE FANS” this game was entertainment of the best. The conditions added to the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsSorry to say, but sadly the sadas were just ordinary and havilli at 10 as an abs selection just won’t cut it. He’s better suited in the centre’s and is a victim of past charge down kicks, he’s too slow under pressure. There’s better talent further north and I don’t mean dmac however I believe razor will sort him out. A feature of his presents on the park is the fact that the guys will follow him.
10 Go to commentsMarler was brilliant throughout both in the scrum and open play. His slap made virtually no contact with Ramos who milked it for a penalty when he could have been a decent sportsman and laughed it off, it was non-violent and shouldn't have been penalised. Smith failed repeatedly to kick when necessary and put up a couple of bombs into the TLS 22 that just handed back possession at key moments to the other side.
3 Go to commentsCros was outstanding and rightly awarded France TVs player of the match award. Mallia was brilliant as usual (the y is below the 6 on a UK keyboard and he deserves better than that). Level also seems to have been scored harshly as he walked the ball into touch under pressure from a Lynagh kick from well outside his own half which should never have led to a 50-22. Agree with BullShark that Dupont, while class at times, seemed to go missing for patches in the second half with props, hookers and wings frequently filling in at 9 as he couldn't get off the deck and up to the next ruck on time. A 7 by his standards at best, his kicking was also too long, too often. Kinghorn's overall contribution was worth well more than a five.
3 Go to commentsThe Harlequins team must be in minus figures. Did the reporter actually watch the game?
3 Go to commentsHow on earth did Walker escape a red card? Not dangerous? Dupont has his face in a mask earlier this season. Shocking decision. What is the point of TMOs? We had the Fassi ‘non-penalty try’ yesterday and now this.
2 Go to commentsCould have been a different result but yet again French tv able to affect the result by not showing the very clear high shot on harlequin centre if this would have been on a French player would have been on screen at least five times
3 Go to commentsAmazing. The losing team’s ratings are higher than the winning team’s. Mallia definitely didn’t deserve a y. What game were you watching? Should have got a w or an x. ADP hardly featured in that second half. At one point I wondered when he’d been subbed. Seems to me as if he gets an automatic 9 just for getting onto the team sheet.
3 Go to commentsI’m sorry. That second half was far from enthralling. It was painful to watch.
2 Go to commentsVery generous! If you’d missed the game, reading this you’d conclude that it was the Quins front row that cost them the game. Marler getting a blanket 6 for his demented contribution to the game. Puzzling.
3 Go to commentsCan’t see Toulouse beating Leinster at this rate.
7 Go to commentsADP was having a very average game until winning that penalty for Toulouse, sticking his big head in the way. “The head of God”?
7 Go to commentsHarlequins doing their best to do as little damage as possible with all the possession. Looks like they skipped catch and pass drills this week.
7 Go to commentsSeeing pictures of Jacques high-fiving it with Irish players breaks my heart. Too soon. I need more time.
1 Go to comments