There is a growing sense of parity among the six or so best test sides
Reservations around the All Blacks under Ian Foster still exist, despite an overall successful season so far this year.
The performances have at times been brilliant when the opposition played right into their hands, as the Wallabies and Wales did.
However, a tactically awful game against the Springboks in Townsville was the first to show New Zealand’s flaws and keep doubts in check.
The rematch a week later was a much better contest, yet the All Blacks buckled with the game essentially in the bag to give the Springboks one last chance to take the win.
A lacklustre performance from the All Blacks’ ‘B’ side against Italy on the weekend furthered the concerns lingering around about where this squad is after the ‘A’ team obliterated a depleted Welsh side in Cardiff the week beforehand.
There were quality players on that field in Rome that made uncharacteristically basic errors that they just don’t when playing for the Chiefs or Crusaders in Super Rugby.
For that reason, questions get put on the coaching staff as the public expects more of such talent.
After an underwhelming 2020 season, the All Blacks have plenty to do to answer those questions, but the performances like those against Italy and the Springboks leave those queries unanswered.
The public knows they are a good side, but that goes with the territory with the All Blacks. What they want to see are dominant victories against quality opposition to develop full belief that this squad is a great one.
These doubts exist in spite of the fact the All Blacks unassumingly sit with a win-loss record of 12-1 on the year, which is the best record of any test side in the 2021 calendar year.
Against only tier one competition, their 8-1 record is better than that of the Springboks (6-4), Scotland (4-2), the Wallabies (6-5), France (5-4), Ireland (3-2) and Wales (4-4-1) similarly against tier one.
The Springboks have already proven they are not a dominant nor historically great side this year, despite being put on a pedestal as a mythical beast of the game.
Just scraping by against a stout yet seriously undermanned Welsh outfit is further proof that South Africa are a determined, but fortuitous side, playing a 50-50 game plan that keeps games close but isn’t reliable.
As we have seen, they will invariably swallow some losses along the way and they almost took another in Cardiff after failing to take the lead for 70-odd minutes in an unconvincing display.
They won’t get embarrassed on the scoreboard, but cannot dominate many teams and put them away by 20 consistently, if at all. Many of their wins could have fallen the other way, just like their losses.
That the Springboks are not a great side does not mean the All Blacks are automatically one either, despite a better record against tier one teams this year.
You’d be hard pressed to find many in New Zealand who believe this 2021 All Blacks side is great one, yet. The trumpets are not being blown for them the same way as the vuvuzelas are for the Springboks in South Africa.
Most would see New Zealand’s upcoming tests against Ireland and France as both losable fixtures or, at the very least, uncertain outcomes as opposed to the inevitability of the last two weeks.
The All Blacks-France test in Paris has drawn most of the excitement and anticipation, yet it is Ireland under Andy Farrell that pose an equally difficult challenge, and the fact that they are flying under the radar should put Foster’s team on notice.
For all the hype surrounding France’s revival, centred around a young core of stars such as Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack, they are yet to win any silverware in this era. It would seem France are still France that blow hot and cold.
Despite a fast start to the Six Nations last year, they flamed out at Murrayfield and conceded the title to England. England then claimed the Autumn Nations Cup in November when France sent what was basically a ‘C’ team to the final.
To start Andy Farrell’s era, Ireland started that 2020 Six Nations campaign 2-0 and were still a chance to claim the title heading into the final round when the tournament restarted, needing a big win over Les Bleus and came up short 35-27.
This year, both sides finished second and third once again, with France squeezing a tight 15-13 win over the Irish at home.
On the basis of their competitiveness in those fixtures and competitions, Ireland are as much of a chance as France to hand the All Blacks a loss this week, and recent history is in their favour.
The Irish will likely once again rise to try and ambush the All Blacks in Dublin without the pressure of expectation.
New Zealand’s last visit there was a famous loss in 2018, and they had a point to prove in 2016 after the famous defeat in Chicago. Three years before that, the All Blacks escaped defeat with Ryan Crotty’s last-ditch try and Aaron Cruden’s clutch sideline kick.
It has not been easy in the slightest for the All Blacks playing Ireland in Dublin, and, although they haven’t won headlines, Farrell’s side possess an edge similar to that of their coach.
They have not suffered a heavy defeat since their World Cup quarterfinal at the hands of the All Blacks two years ago, and they aren’t likely to go down as they did that night in Tokyo.
Scotland’s win over the Wallabies further adds credibility to the claim that we have five-to-six teams in test rugby that can all beat each other on the day, with no clear-cut dominant team. Home advantage counts for a lot between them. Ireland and France can further that idea by knocking the All Blacks’ 2021 win record down a few percentage points.
Perhaps we are entering a golden era of test rugby heading into the 2023 World Cup given there is parity at the top in 2021 and matches depend on the finest of margins.
The lack of cross-hemisphere clashes have clouded this possibility, but November’s Autumn Nations Series may shine a light on it.
The All Blacks aren’t dominant like they used to be, while the Springboks never were as dominant as they were made out to be.
The Wallabies are back, Scotland are legitimate contenders, as are Ireland and France, and Wales – as Six Nations champions but with a decimated pack – pushed the Springboks to the brink with far fewer resources at their disposal.
England aren’t even in the conversation yet after a horror Six Nations, but you can’t discount them turning things around with the might of the RFU behind them. They have the chance to prove themselves against Australia and South Africa this month.
If the All Blacks want to set a marker down as the leader of the pack, then wins over the next two weeks are a must to finish the year 10-1 against tier one nations. Doing so may finally start build some credit for Foster.
Failing in either clash will ensure that reservations about him and his team will persist in 2022.
Failing in both will categorically show there are no clear-cut favourites for 2023.
Comments on RugbyPass
I certainly don’t miss drinking beers at 8am in the morning watching rugby games being played in NZ.
1 Go to commentsThis looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
1 Go to commentsVery unlikely the Bulls will beat Leinster in Dublin. It would be different in Pretoria.
1 Go to commentsI think it is a dangerous path to go down to ban a player for the same period that a player they injured takes to recover. Players would be afraid to tackle anyone. I once tackled my best friend at school in a practice match and sprained his ankle. I paid for it by having to play fly-half instead of full-back for the rest of that season’s fixtures.
5 Go to commentsJust such a genuine good bloke…and probably the best all round player in his generation. Good guys do come first sometimes and he handled the W.Cup loss with great attitude.
2 Go to commentsWord in France is that he’s on the radar of a few Top14 clubs.
2 Go to commentsGet blocking Travis, this guy has styles and he’s gonna make a swift impact…!
1 Go to commentsWhat remorse? She claimed that her dangerous tackle wasn’t worthy of a red! She should be compensating the injured player for loss of earnings at the minimum. Her ban should include the recovery time of the injured player as well as the paltry 3 match ban.
5 Go to commentsArdie is a legend. Finished and klaar. Two things: “Yeah, yeah, I have had a few conversations with Razor just around feedback on my game and what I am doing well, what I need to improve on or work-ons. It’s kind of been minimal, mate, but it’s all that I need over here in terms of how to be better, how to get better and what I am doing well.” I hope he’s downplaying it - and that it’s not that “minimal”. The amount of communication and behind the scenes preparation the Bok coaches put into players - Rassie and co would be all over Ardie and being clear on what is expected of him. This stands out for me as something teams should really be looking at in terms of the boks success from a coaching point of view. And was surprised by the comment - “minimal”. In terms of the “debate” around Ireland and South Africa. Nice one Ardie. Indeed. There’s no debate.
2 Go to commentsThere’s a bit of depth there but realistically Australian players have a long way to go to now catch up. The game is moving on fast and Australia are falling behind. Australian sides still don’t priories the breakdown like they should, it’s a non-negotiable if you want to compete on the international stage. That goes for forwards and backs. The Australian team could have a back row that could make a difference but the problem is they don’t have a tight five that can do the business. Tupou is limited in defence, overweight and unfit and the locks are a long way from international standard. Frost is soft and Salakai-Loto is too small so that means they need a Valentini at 8 who has to do the hard graft so limits the effectiveness of the backrow. Schmidt really needs to get a hard working, tough tight 5 if he wants to get this team firing.
3 Go to commentsSorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
2 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to commentsSimple reason for wanting him back. Robertson wants him as captain. Otherwise he wouldn’t be bothering chasing him. Not enough reason to come back just to mentor.
10 Go to commentsI had not considered this topic like this at all, brilliant read. I had been looking at his record at the Waratahs and thought it odd the Crusaders appointed him, then couple that with all that experience and talent departing and boom. They’ve got some great talent developing though, and in all honesty I don’t think anyone would be over confident taking them on in a playoff match, no matter how poor the first half of their season was. I think they can pull a game out of their ass when it counts.
2 Go to commentsNot a bad list but not Porecki and not Donaldson. Not because they are Tahs, or Ex Tahs, they are just not good enough. Edmed should be ahead. Far more potential. Wilson should be 8 and Valentini 6. Wilson needs to be told by his father and his coach, stop bloody running in to brick wall defence. You’re not playing under the genius Thorn any more. He’s a fantastic angle runner. The young new 8 from the Brumbies looks really good too. The Lonegrans are just too small for international rugby as is Paisami, as is Hamish Stewart at 12. Both great at Super Rugby level. Stewart could have been a great 10 if not for Brad Thorn. Uru should be there and so should Tupou. Tupou just needs good Australian coaching which he hasn’t been getting. I don’t think Schmidt will excite him.
3 Go to commentsIf he wants to come back then he should. He will be a major asset to the younger locks and could easily be played as an impact player off the bench coming on in the last 30. He is fit, strong and capable and has all the experience to make up for any loss in physical prowess. He could also be brought back with a view to coaching within the structures one day. Duane Vermeulen played until he was 37 or 38. He is now a roaming coach within the South African coaching structures. He was valuable in the last world cup and has been a major influence on Jasper Wiese and other young players which has helped and accelerated their development and growth. Whitelock could do the exact same thing for NZ
10 Go to commentsBrett Excellent words… finally someone (other than DC) has noted that Hanigan is very hard and very good at doing what Backrow should do… his performance via the Drua sauna was quite daunting for those on the other side… very high tackle count… carries with good end result… constant threat to make a good 20-25 meters with those long legs… providing his mass effectively to crunching the Drua pack… Finally he is returning to quality form… way to much injury time over the last 2 years… smart-strong-competent in his skills… caught every lineout throw aimed at him and delivered clean pass to whoever was down below… and he worked hard for the whole 80 minutes… Ned has to be in the top 5 for backrow honors… He knows what is required as he has been there before…
20 Go to commentsI think Sam Whitelock should not touch a return with a bargepole. He went out on a high, playing in the RWC Final. He would be coming back into a team that will be weaker than last years, and might even be struggling to win games, especially against the Boks. Stay in France, enjoy another year with Pau, playing alongside his brother.
10 Go to commentsRyan Coxon has been very impressive considering he was signed by WF as injury cover whilst Uru has been a standout for QR, surprised neither of those mentioned
3 Go to comments