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The RugbyPass Index has been firing on all cylinders since its official launch late last month, with the November international window providing an early litmus test of the RPI’s accuracy.
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The November internationals – while tough to pick at first glance – have proved no match for the Index, with our RPI correctly picking all but one of the fixtures this month to chalk up an impressive 16-1 record.
Most notably, the RPI gave Ireland a 51% chance of toppling the All Blacks in Dublin and the result was an extremely tight affair, with the home side edging the visitors 16-9.
Tonga were written off for their fixture against Wales, with the home side given a 100% chance of victory and delivering with a 10-try 74-24 triumph.
The only game the RPI has called incorrectly this month was Scotland’s clash with South Africa. The RPI gave Scotland a 58% chance of victory but they were downed 26-20 in Edinburgh after a pair of Handre Pollard penalties pushed South Africa in front in the late stages.
The individual player ratings also received a shake-up, with five of the winning Irish side featuring in the international XV of the week – Tadhg Furlong, Devin Toner, Peter O’Mahony, Johnny Sexton and try-scoring hero Jacob Stockdale.
All Blacks flanker Ardie Savea ranks as this week’s top international player after his 14-tackle effort against Ireland. He also tacked on 23 run metres, beat a pair of defenders and won a turnover.
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Just 5 @allblacks now remain in the RPI’s International 1st XV following defeat at the hands of @irishrugby at the weekend, and Kieran Read is very lucky to have made the cut. Explore the RugbyPass Index: index.rugbypass.com #IREvNZL #AllBlacks #IrishRugby
Following the result in Dublin, the gap between our top two teams – New Zealand and Ireland – narrowed. New Zealand dropped close to 1% while Ireland saw a 1.19% increase to bring the margin between the pair to just two points, where they sit with RPI scores of 88 and 86 respectively.
The RPI will be looking to extend its hot streak next weekend with plenty of tough tests ahead. A handsome All Black victory over Italy has been predicted, but it’s all northern hemisphere from there.
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Scotland are tipped to beat Argentina, Wales are tipped to beat South Africa, Ireland should topple the United States, France are picked ahead of Fiji and Eddie Jones should get revenge on his country of birth when England host Australia.
Perhaps the biggest shock of this weekend’s predictions is the chances the Springboks have been given. After narrow wins against France and Scotland, the RPI has given Rassie Erasmus’ Springboks side just a 28% chance of victory against the world’s No. 3 side.
Time will tell if the RPI’s wisdom delivers once again.
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Learn more about the RPI here:
Comments on RugbyPass
pure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
1 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
7 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
5 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
5 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
5 Go to commentsNot sure exactly what went wrong for him at Glasgow but it’s pretty clear he ain’t Franco’s cup of tea. Suspect he would have been better served heading out of Scotland around the same time as Finn, Hoggy and Jonny!
1 Go to commentsBulls disrespected the Northampton supporters and the competition. Decide quickly, fully in or out.
25 Go to commentsI wonder if Parling was ever on England’s radar as a coach? Obviously Borthwick is a great lineout coach, but I do worry he might be taking on too much as both head coach and forwards coach.
1 Go to commentsJason Jenkins has one cap. When Etzebeth was his age he had over 80 caps. Experience matters. He will never amount to what Etzebeth has because he hasn’t been developed as an international player.
2 Go to commentsSays much about the player picking this gig over the easier and bigger rewards offered to him in Japan. Also says a lot about the state sanctioned tax benefits the Irish Revenue offers pro rugby players, with their ten highest earning years subject to an additional 40% tax relief and paid as a lump sum, in cash, at retirement. Certainly helps Leinster line up the financial ducks in a row to fund marquee signings like this!!! No other union anywhere in world rugby benefits from this kind of lucrative financial sponsorship from their government…
5 Go to commentsTrue Jordie could earn a lot more in Japan. But by choosing Leinster he’ll be playing with 1 of the best clubs in the world and can win a champions cup and URC…..
6 Go to commentsThanks for that Marshy, noticed you didn't say who is gonna win it. We know who ain't gonna win it - your Crusaders outfit. They've gone from having arguably the best Super Rugby first five ever, to having a clutch of rookies. Hurricanes all the way!
1 Go to commentsGeez you really have to question the NRLs ability to produce players of quality. Its pathetic. Dont the 25mil in Aus produce enough quality womens players. Sad.
1 Go to commentsBulls fan here, and agree 100% with the conclusion (and little else) of this article. SA sides should absolutely f-off from the champs cup until we get fair scheduling, equal support for travel arrangements and home semis. You know, like all the european teams get.
25 Go to commentsI’m yet to see why Grace would be an ABs contender. He’s pedestrian and lacks the dominance required of a top flight 8.
11 Go to commentsGee my Highlanders were terrible. They have gone backwards since the start of the season. The trouble began when we left Millar behind to prep as the 10 against the Brumbies and he was disconnected from the team that came back from Aussie. We rested Patchell for that game and we blew an avalanche of ball in good attacking positions in the 1st half. Against the Rebels we seem to of gone into a pod system with forwards hanging off from the breakdown leaving Fakatava to secure our ball!
80 Go to commentsPot Kettle, the English and French teams have done it for years.
25 Go to commentsHas virtually played every minute of previous games. Back row of Li Lo Willie , Grace and Blackadder would be the 1. Crusaders issue is a very average 1st 5 who cannot run. Kicking in general play is also below par They need to put Yong Kemara in. He must have so.e talent for them to bring him down from Waikato. Hoehepa would struggle to play in so.e club sided
11 Go to commentsI hope this a good thing making all these changes!
3 Go to comments