The key ingredient the Wallabies must take out of their recipe to avoid another Bledisloe disaster
The All Blacks dominance over the Wallabies has never been more assured over recent seasons as they enjoyed their most fruitful period ever.
The last World Cup cycle saw the All Blacks average more than five tries a game against Australia. Since the pro era began, it had never been more than three.
The back half of the Hansen-era saw an unprecedented period of high-scoring rugby against the Wallabies. Cheika’s outfit were unable to diagnose and repair the problems in their game, and the All Blacks were able to put on a magnificent show highlighting the difference in skill levels between the two sides.
Partly through ignorance, the Wallabies continued to play beyond their means, attempting plays they could not execute, with such a lack of precision it made the ideas look half-baked in the first place.
Bledisloe Cup rugby became stuck in a ‘groundhog day’ period of repetition.
Wallabies errors would fuel a rampant All Black counter attacking machine, who would pile on tries and look untouchable, furthering their claim as the best team in the world.
However, as the back end of 2018 and the World Cup showed, this magic fountain was not flowing against every side.
The crux of the equation for any team trying to beat the All Blacks is to unequivocally turn this tap off, which the likes of Ireland, England and South Africa have done at varying points in time.
When Ireland were at the top of their game under Joe Schmidt, you’d be lucky to see one ball dropped, stolen or stripped away. The type of game the Irish played worked to knock off the number one side two years ago.
The ‘starvation’ of any broken play opportunity in Dublin 2018 forced the All Blacks to score through other, more tougher, means. It proved too difficult, a 14-man Irish wall could not be broken in that 16-9 defeat.
Fast forward to the World Cup quarterfinal 12 months later, and Ireland were a shell of themselves a year prior. They could not perform the most basic of starter players designed by Schmidt, stuck in a mental fog that produced error after error, all playing into the All Blacks favour.
Aaron Smith’s first try can be traced back to Sam Cane stripping a weak carry from Robbie Henshaw on first phase and forcing a knock-on around midfield. From the scrum, the All Blacks steamrolled Ireland down to their own goal line before they cracked under the weight of second high-phase possession.
Smith’s second try came from Ireland losing control of their own throw, leading to a knock-on by Tadhg Furlong and giving the All Blacks another midfield scrum.
George Bridge nearly scored in the corner from the first phase strike play and the All Blacks halfback finished on the next.
Down 17-0, the straw that really broke the camel’s back was a dropped ball by Sexton during a starter play sequence. Ireland had the All Blacks on the back foot, but botched running lines on the second phase caused Sexton to hesitate, get hit and spill the ball.
That loose ball was hacked ahead 50-metres in the opposite direction for Beauden Barrett to pounce on and push the lead out to 22-0.
Ireland were dead after 35-minutes, deep in a hole with only a shovel to get themselves out of it.
The first two tries to Aaron Smith came from a turn of momentum after errors, but the third one to Barrett was an opportunistic play spawning from a coach-killer that practically gave the points away.
It is these coach-killers that have also continually been the bain of the Wallabies’ Bledisloe hopes, adding extra gravy onto the All Blacks score, forcing them to almost always chase the game.
In last year’s return Bledisloe at Eden Park, Richie Mo’unga broke open a tough first half by scooping up a dropped pass from Reece Hodge and scampering away down the touch line to build a 10-0 lead.
Two minutes later, the All Blacks skinned the Wallabies on a kick return after a poor clearance and, all of a sudden, what was 3-0, became 17-0 in a blink.
This is the point where game plans go out the window, extra passes are pushed trying to chase the game, and players start trying to make things happen that aren’t ordinarily part of the plan.
The problem is this is more fuel to the fire and often results in more All Blacks counter-attacking opportunities.
Case in point, already down 31-0 in the same clash with a few minutes remaining, Samu Kerevi took a quick tap inside his own 22 after a mark and attempted to run the ball out to try and spark an ad-hoc play.
He was turned over by Ardie Savea at the ruck and easy hands to the edge added an extra try to top off a 36-0 win.
There have been at least two or three tries per game gifted away by the Wallabies in this fashion over this period, at the same time the All Blacks are scoring a record 35.6 points per game against them.
The question the Wallabies must ask is, how much ball-in-hand rugby do they want to play? Because too much may play straight into the All Blacks hands as it has for the last four years.
One of the All Blacks greatest weapons is sniffing out these moments of weakness and uncertainty and striking in disorganised windows. When things go wrong for the opposition, they really go wrong, and the game is taken away.
Taking a more compact game plan with efficient exits, smart kicking and lower ball-in-hand phase counts into this year’s Bledisloe will help to turn off the turnover tap and keep the game closer.
That must be the starting point for Rennie’s young side – learn not to lose by an embarrassing amount. If they do that, there will be authentic pressure at the back end of the game, where anything can happen.
Just ask the Springboks about the Wellington test in 2018.
Comments on RugbyPass
Lets compare apples with apples. Lyon sent weak team the week before, but nobody raised an eyebrow. Give the South African teams a few years to build their depth, then you will be moaning that the teams are too strong.
41 Go to commentsDid footballs agents also perform the scout role at some time? I’m surprised more high profile players haven’t taken up the occupation, great way to remain in the game and use all that experience without really requiring a lot of specific expertise?
1 Go to commentsSuper rugby is struggling but that has little to do with sabbaticals. 1. Too many teams from Aust and NZ - should be 3 and 4 respectively, add in 2 from Japan, 1 possibly 2 from Argentina. 2. Inconsistent and poor refereeing, admittedly not restricted to Super rugby. Only one team was reffed at the breakdown in Reds v H’Landers match. Scrum penalty awarded in Canes v Drua when No 8 had the ball in the open with little defence nearby - ideal opportunity to play advantage. Coming back to Reds match - same scrum situation but ref played advantage - Landers made 10 yards and were penalised at the breakdown when the ref should have returned to scrum penalty. 3. Marketing is weak and losing ground to AFL and NRL. Playing 2 days compared with 4. 4. Scheduling is unattractive to family attendance. Have any franchises heard of Sundays 2pm?
10 Go to commentsAbsolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
9 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
10 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
9 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
35 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
35 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
5 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
6 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
22 Go to comments