Tana Umaga makes changes, universe explodes
If Tana Umaga didn’t understand how much scrutiny he will face as Blues coach, he sure does now. And all it took for him to create mass hysteria was to make a few changes to a winning team.
Adages die harder than John McClane, and that’s especially true of those that apply to rugby union. One of them is “you don’t f*** with a winning team”, which, amazingly, has reared its cliched head in the last twenty-four hours on the back of Tana Umaga making six changes – SIX WHOLE CHANGES – to his Blues starting fifteen for this Friday’s match against the Crusaders.
Yes, Tana f***** with his team’s line-up.
Quite why people are astonished, astounded and/or bewildered is beyond me. There are a couple of reasons: first, before last Friday, very few pundits thought anyone would be talking about the Blues as a winning team and, second, you would have thought that after years of ‘rotation’ as a (hugely successful) All Blacks strategy, we may have become accustomed to a full-squad system which, when applied well, actually works.
Perhaps it’s just a Blues thing. After all, the two-time champion Chiefs are renowned for making wholesale changes on a weekly basis, yet Dave Rennie’s selection whims have never been given the grilling Umaga’s have received in just his second tournament week. One headline read: “Blues Take Major Gamble”. But is it really a major gamble?
Worse, no sooner had the team been released yesterday than one broadcaster actually compared Tana Umaga to Sir John Kirwan – the former coach who oversaw arguably the biggest decline in the Blues performance since the team cracked the shits with David Nucifora and sent him back to Australia. How is it even possible to make that kind of comparison after one (winning) week?
There was wailing, gnashing of teeth, shaking of fists, general howls of despair; there may even have been a loose and evolving plan to form a mob and descend on Blues HQ. As usual, there was little said specifically about what these changes might mean in the context of a game, so allow us to calmly guide you through Umaga’s crazy* plan, so we can all stay calm.
Jerome Kaino in, Joe Edwards out
Joe Edwards didn’t do much wrong on Friday night. Ran often (for some tough metres, too) and made three tackles. Edwards is in the wider training group and with respect to him he probably wouldn’t have started on Friday had Kaino not been suspended.
This substitution should be removed from the discussion, because KAINO IS THE DAMN CAPTAIN! Of course he starts. This is such a given that, in reality, Umaga’s only made five changes.
Quentin McDonald in, James Parsons out
This kind of selection happens all the time with hookers. It’s a case of what’s best against a certain opponent. If I could offer a more succinct argument it would be, “nothing to see here, please disperse”. At the Crusaders, the choice is between the more dynamic and athletic Codie Taylor or the more physical and defensively-minded Ben Funnell. At the Chiefs it’s a toss up between Hika Elliot (when fit), Nathan Harris, and the more conservative Rhys Marshall. Rotating hookers is not news. It’s just good business.
Billy Guyton in, Bryn Hall out
Amazingly, and going back to the adage thing, last week almost every conversation about the Blues devolved into the usual bullshit about them not having a nine or a ten. Nek minnit, Hall puts up an assured performance that includes six runs for 21 metres and a try assist, and now no-one can believe he’s been benched.
Except, you have to hand it to Guyton, who closed out the game with a run and gun routine of his own, putting up four carries for more metres (32 in total) than Hall. Guyton has been picked to mess with Andy Ellis’s head, and the inside defence. It’s a legit call.
Matt McGahan in, Ihaia West out
Let’s start by reviewing the first point on Bryn Hall above. Okay, now let’s move on. McGahan played two minutes of code against the Highlanders, and that was as a fullback so any attempt to give this some statistical relevance would be silly. McGahan has, however, put together an entire pre-season campaign as Guyton’s partner, so if you think about how important Guyton’s job is on Friday night, then it makes sense to buddy him up.
Bryn Hall and Ihaia West on a tiring Crusaders defence? That’s a great bench option.
Rene Ranger in, Male Sa’u out
Oh please, don’t tell me you didn’t want to see this! Ranger, Sa’u and Moala are the Blues’ midfield three-card trick. Take one off, put another one on, watch the carnage. Get used to it – this change falls into the same category as the Kaino one. In other words, Umaga has really only made four changes, which is not even news.
Matt Duffie in, Lolagi Visinia out
Renowned as one of the best kick receivers in the NRL, Matt Duffie comes into a game against a team that kicked the crap out of it against the Chiefs (making a conference-high 30 kicks in play in round one) and one which loves to play without the ball (they claimed just 12 minutes in possession in round one), and one that hasn’t made a single personnel change. Matt Duffie may be on debut but this is a dream for a fullback who loves getting a touch. As Damian McKenzie showed last week.
Of course, if the Blues lose then Umaga should quit immediately.
*not crazy
Comments on RugbyPass
He was in such great form. Sad for him but only a short term injury and it will be great to see him back for the finals.
1 Go to commentsAfter their 5/0 start, I had the Crusaders to finish Top 4 only…they lost the plot in Perth but will reload and back themselves vs 4th placed Rebels…
3 Go to commentsBoth nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
2 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
6 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
6 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
3 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
3 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
34 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
2 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
3 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
3 Go to comments