STATS: Some insane nerd stats and infographics around this year's Aviva Premiership
Who will come out on top? Which clubs have put in the pre-season hours? Who is still recovering from their summer efforts? And when will your team face their toughest test?
To help answer those questions and more, here is the ultimate guide to the season, giving you an expert insight into the highs-and-lows you can expect over the next nine months.
Season Overview
By looking at the head-to-head results over the years, we are trying to predict where each club is likely to face their toughest run-in this season, alongside the dates fans might see their team hit a purple patch of form.
A club-by-club guide can be seen here:
* Saracens should finish strongly with their last three matches all among their 10 easiest.
* Wasps should hit the ground running as they have three relatively easy games to begin with, but three of the following four are among their toughest. Will the momentum generated by an easy start carry them through to Christmas?
* Exeter Chiefs have three easy games in their last four, so could finish well.
* Leicester Tigers go the longest before hitting one of their five toughest games, but then have a horrible December where they face Wasps, Saracens and Harlequins back-to-back.
* Bath have a rough start – three of their five toughest games come in their first five fixtures, but they also get three of their easiest in the first seven rounds.
* Northampton Saints must wait the joint-longest for one of their 5 easiest games and have 3 tough games in their last 4 (Saracens at home, then Leicester and Wasps away).
* Harlequins also get three of their five easiest games in the opening seven rounds – and only one tough fixture – so should start well
* Gloucester have a tough start – their first three games all rank among their toughest 10.
* Sale Sharks have an interesting September: their first five games are all either one of their toughest or easiest.
* Newcastle will have faced three of their five toughest challenges in the first eight rounds and are also the only club to play four of their five easiest games in the first half of the season.
* Worcester have a rough start, with six of their 10 toughest games in their first nine fixtures and the joint-longest wait for one of their five easiest.
* London Irish only have one of their five easiest games in the first half of the season and the other four alternate at the start of the second, which could enable them to pull away from the bottom of the table as the “business end” of the season approaches.
First Game of the Season
History shows that the first game of the season favours some clubs more than others. By looking how each club has performed in all their opening Premiership fixtures, Canterbury have found that being a favourite for the league doesn’t mean you’re most likely to win your first game…
* Saracens, Leicester Tigers and Bath have all won 65% of their opening day fixtures in the professional era, with Saracens the most dominant in points scoring terms.
* In complete contrast to this, Worcester Warriors have only won 2 opening day fixtures on 11 different outings, so will be hoping to prove history wrong away to Newcastle Falcons on Friday.
* Bath have won 9 of their last 10 opening day fixtures, but a trip to Leicester Tigers on opening day – where they’ve only won 1 and drawn 2 of their 20 previous meetings – means that it’d be impressive for them to extend this.
* Notably, title contenders Wasps have the second worst opening day win percentage out of all the clubs in the Premiership, providing hope for Sale Sharks when they clubs meet at the Ricoh Arena on Saturday.
Fast and Slow Starters
Although winning the opening fixture is important, getting off to a good start across your opening few games is crucial. Canterbury found that history provides hope for some fans, while others might want to remain in hiding for the first few games of the season:
* Adding weight to the Wasps versus Sale Sharks fixture, history says that Wasps are 33% less likely to win their first three games compared to the rest of the season, while Sale Sharks enjoy a boost of over 20% in their opening three fixtures
* Gloucester appear to prepare well for the start of the season, with the club 12% more likely to win their first three games compared to the rest of the season.
* There seems to be less hope for Worcester Warrior fans whose club are 33% less likely to win in their opening three fixtures than during the rest of the season.
Home Advantage
We all know that playing on home soil in front of a partisan crowd provides a huge boost to the home clubs. But is this true for every side in rugby’s top flight? While every team does enjoy a slight home advantage, which clubs really make it count, and who struggles under the pressure of an expectant crowd?
* Worcester Warriors, Newcastle Falcons and Gloucester all enjoy a significant home advantage compared to their overall performance throughout the season, with each club over 40% more likely to win at home.
* Meanwhile Exeter Chiefs have a surprisingly low home advantage for a team that many clubs have to travel a long distance to reach, with the West Country club just 17% more likely to win when playing at home (the lowest home advantage in the league)
Fixtures to plot in your diary
For fans around the country hoping to watch the games with the most action, Canterbury have put together a week-by-week guide which highlights what is likely to be the highest scoring match of each round. These are the fixtures to plot in your diary, whether you’re a club fan or are just a rugby neutral who likes to see tries being scored!
* Sale Sharks are a good team to follow in the early part of the season – in four of the first six weeks of the season, their match has the highest-scoring head-to-head record in the professional era.
* Leicester Tigers are likely to be the most entertaining over the festive period: three of the four rounds in December and January have a Tigers match with the highest-scoring head-to-head record.
* The team for neutrals to keep an eye on during the run-in is Exeter Chiefs – the last four rounds of fixtures all have the Chiefs’ game as the match with the highest-scoring head-to-head record.
Major comings and goings in theEnglish Premiership ahead of the opening round of matches beginning on Friday:
Bath
In: Freddie Burns (Leicester Tigers), Anthony Perenise (Bristol Rugby), Sam Underhill (Ospreys)
Out: David Denton (Worcester Warriors), George Ford (Leicester Tigers)
Exeter Chiefs
In: Matt Kvesic (Gloucester Rugby), Wilhelm van der Sluys (Southern Kings), Nic White (Montpellier)
Out: Niko Matawalu (released), Geoff Parling (Melbourne Rebels)
Gloucester
In: Ruan Ackermann (Lions)
Out: Paul Doran-Jones (Wasps), James Hook (Ospreys), Sione Kalamafoni (Leicester Tigers), Matt Kvesic (Exeter Chiefs), Greig Laidlaw (ASM Clermont Auvergne), Jonny May (Leicester Tigers)
Harlequins
In: Renaldo Bothma (Bulls), Demetri Catrakilis (Montpellier,) Francis Saili (Munster)
Out: Matt Hopper (Oyonnax), Ruaridh Jackson (Glasgow Warriors), Nick Evans (retired)
Leicester Tigers
In: George Ford (Bath Rugby), Sione Kalamafoni (Gloucester Rugby), Nick Malouf (Australia Sevens), Jonny May (Gloucester Rugby), Dominic Ryan (Leinster).
Out: Freddie Burns (Bath Rugby), Jon-Paul Pietersen (Toulon), Marcos Ayerza (retired)
London Irish
In: Petrus Du Plessis (Saracens), Saia Fainga’a (Brumbies), Luke McLean (Beneton Treviso), Ben Meehan (Melbourne Rebels), Napolioni Nalaga (Lyon), Gordon Reid (Glasgow Warriors)
Out: Tom Court (retired)
Newcastle Falcons
In: Toby Flood (Toulouse), Josh Matavesi (Ospreys), Maxime Mermoz (Leicester Tigers), Daniel van der Merwe (Scarlets)
Out: Mike Delany (Bay of Plenty), Mouritz Botha (retired)
Northampton Saints
In: Piers Francis (Blues), Rob Horne (Waratahs), Cobus Reinach (Sharks), Francois Van Wyk (Western Force)
Out: JJ Hanrahan (Leinster), Louis Picamoles (Montpellier), George Pisi (released)
Sale Sharks
In: Francois de Klerk (Lions), James O’Connor (Toulon), Jono Ross (Stade Francais), Josh Strauss (Glasgow Warriors)
Out: James Mitchell (Connacht), Peter Stringer (Worcester Warriors), Mike Phillips (retired), Magnus Lund (released)
Saracens
In: Dominic Day (Rebels), Will Skelton (Waratahs), Christopher Tolofua (Toulouse), Liam Williams (Scarlets)
Out: Chris Ashton (Toulon), Petrus Du Plessis (London Irish), Jim Hamilton, Kelly Brown (both retired)
Wasps
In: Paul Doran Jones (Gloucester Rugby), Juan de Jongh (Stormers), Gabiriele Lovobalavu (Bayonne), Marcus Watson (Newcastle Falcons)
Out: Kurtley Beale (Waratahs), Nick De Luca (retired), Carlo Festuccia (retired)
Worcester Warriors
In: David Denton (Bath Rugby), Peter Stringer (Sale Sharks)
Out: Tevita Cavubati (Newcastle Falcons), Ryan Lamb (La Rochelle), Na’ama Leleimalefaga (Brive)
Comments on RugbyPass
Except for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to commentsTo me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
33 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
2 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
33 Go to commentsAh, good to find you Nick. Agree with everything about Cale. So much to like about his game
49 Go to commentsNot too bad. Questions at 6, lock and HB for me. The ABs will be a lot stronger once Jordan and Roigard return. Also, work needs to be made to secure Frizzell back for next season and maybe also Mo’unga; they’re just wasting time playing in japan
33 Go to commentsOn the title, i wonder for many of those people it is a case something like a belief in working smarter, not harder?
1 Go to commentsForget Sotutu. One of those whose top level is Super Rugby. Id take a punt on Wallace Sititi Finau ahead of Glass body Blackadder.
33 Go to commentsI’m a pensioner so I've been around a bit. My opinion of SBW is he is an elite athlete and a great New Zealander and roll model. He has been to the top and knows what he's talking about. To all the negative comments regarding SBW the typical New Zealand way, cut that tall poppy down.
17 Go to commentsI'm not listening to a guy moralise over others when this is the guy who walked out mid season on Canterbury RLFC when he had a contract with them, what a hypocrite. Those praising him are a joke.
17 Go to commentsI’d put Finau at 6 instead of Blackadder but that’s the only change I’d make. Can’t wait to see who Razor picks.
33 Go to commentsTamati Williams, Codie Taylor, and Same Cane? Not sure about Hoskins Sotutu at test level. Wasn’t that impressive last season. Need a balance between experience and talent/youth.
33 Go to commentsInteresting insight. Fantastic athlete, and a genuine human being.
17 Go to commentsThey played at night in Suva last weekend and it’s an afternoon game forecast for 19 degrees in Canberra this weekend. Heat change is a non issue.
1 Go to commentsWishing Rosie a speedy recovery
1 Go to commentsObscene that SA haven’t been knocking
1 Go to commentsChances of Blackadder being injured seem too high to give him serious consideration. ABs loosie combination finally looked good with 2 committed to tackling and clearing rucks in the centre and Ardie roaming. Hoskins/Ardie together would force one of them into where they don’t excel and don’t get to use their talent, or require a change in tactics. If we continue to evolve last years systems I would take Papali’i and Finau at 6 and 7 (conceding that Blackadder will be injured) and Ardie at 8.
33 Go to commentsArdie’s preferred position 7? Where do they get these writers from? I've no idea where he's playing in Japan, but the previous two seasons he wore the 7 jersey exactly twice.
17 Go to commentsNot good to hear Ulster described as “financially troubled”. Did not think it was getting to that level. I would hope the Irish system of spreading players of talent away from Leinster would kick in now. Better to have a Leinster fringe player with Ulster or Connacht, then getting only a few games a season in Dublin. 10, for example, would seem to be a case for spreading the talent. I would not be at all adverse to a SA man coming in as head coach/DR. Ludeke is worth trying. Certainly got a long and impressive coaching career at this level…..149 games in SR, then Japan, 30 years experience. And Ulster’s ledger of successful SA coaches and players is on the positive side. Is talk of Ruan Pienaar interested in coming back as a coach…..could be a good combination with Ludeke. And Pienaar and family would have no settling in to do, one would judge. He loved life in Ulster when there, by all reports.
1 Go to commentsSome thoughts to consider here, Sam. Thanks
2 Go to comments