Six Nations Preview: Wales vs Ireland

It’s a case of brain versus brawn in Cardiff this weekend as Wales pits a blunt instrument against Ireland’s quicker wits.

Wales vs Ireland at The Principality Stadium (Saturday, March 11, 4.05am HKT)

What we can expect
High passion both on and off the pitch, despite the fact that Friday-night Six Nations matches – even in Cardiff, where they have been a common occurrence in recent seasons – have never been hugely popular with fans. Ireland have won five of the past eight Six Nations meetings in Cardiff, but have not beaten Wales since 2014, and lost 23-16 in the last meeting here in 2015.

Wales
It’s as-you-were for Wales, after stand-in coach Rob Howley resisted the temptation to tinker and named an unchanged side as the Welsh look to avoid a third consecutive defeat in the Six Nations for the first time since 2007. The mighty bosh worked for Howley the last time he took charge of a Six Nations campaign, in 2013. This time, however, the limited gameplan is proving rather less successful. A worst Six Nations’ finish in a decade is a very real possibility – and, more worryingly, another slip down World Rugby’s rankings could have a calamitous effect on Wales’s place in the draw for the 2019 World Cup in May.

Matchday 23: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Scott Williams, 11 Liam Williams, 10 Dan Biggar, 9 Rhys Webb; 1 Rob Evans, 2 Ken Owens, 3 Tomas Francis, 4 Jake Ball, 5 Alun Wyn Jones (c), 6 Sam Warburton, 7 Justin Tipuric, 8 Ross Moriarty. Bench: 16 Scott Baldwin, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Samson Lee, 19 Luke Charteris, 20 Taulupe Faletau, 21 Gareth Davies, 22 Sam Davies, 23 Jamie Roberts

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Ireland
Like his opposition counterpart, Ireland coach Joe Schmidt has named an unchanged starting 15 for this week’s Six Nations opening act. Unlike his opposition counterpart, he has good reason to stick with the same players. Last time out, Ireland gameplanned France right out of Aviva Stadium with a pitch-and-conditions-perfect performance in a Dublin downpour. The only change to the 23 is the return of Tommy Bowe, who takes over luckless Ulster team-mate Andrew Trimble’s bench-warming duties, after the latter suffered a broke a bone in his hand … having just recovered from an earlier groin injury.

Matchday 23: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Keith Earls, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Johnny Sexton, 9 Conor Murray; 1 Jack McGrath, 2 Rory Best (c), 3 Tadhg Furlong, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 5 Devin Toner, 6 CJ Stander, 7 Sean O’Brien, 8 Jamie Heaslip. Bench: 16 Niall Scannell, 17 Cian Healy, 18 John Ryan, 19 Iain Henderson, 20 Peter O’Mahony, 21 Kieran Marmion, 22 Paddy Jackson, 23 Tommy Bowe.

All eyes on: Johnny Sexton
Ireland’s perfect 10 starts consecutive Test matches for the first time since last year’s Six Nations. He was the tactical rock on which their win over France was built a fortnight ago – expect more of the same this week.

Key battle: The back rows
The midfield contest was a contender here, but … Stander, O’Brien and Heaslip versus Warburton, Tipuric and Moriarty – what’s not to like?

Prediction
It’s going to be close, but the game has moved on since the Welsh battering-ram approach last won the Six Nations. Ireland by 5.